Photo By – Reuters Connect. Orlando City forward Antoine Griezmann (7) puts the ball in play against FC Cincinnati in the first half at Inter.co Stadium.
Fixture congestion abounds for Major League Soccer as the league navigates the World Cup break and the Leagues Cup action.
As a result, Wednesday night sees a full slate of action with 15 matches scheduled. The marquee fixture pits the two biggest summer signings against each other, as Antoine Griezmann and Orlando City play host to the Chicago Fire and Robert Lewandowski.
After a profitable weekend, I am back for more with our MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 20!
MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 20
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Expert MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 20
Columbus Crew SC vs CF Montreal pick: Columbus Crew
Kalshi probability: 58%
The Crew heavily rotated after their strong run in the Leagues Cup, and it bit them as Charlotte jumped out to a quick 2-0 lead.
Expect the Crew to revert to form with their starters back in play, especially given Montreal’s inability to get wins. The Canadian side has taken three points from a possible 15, claiming just four points in nine away fixtures while conceding 25 goals.
D.C. United vs New England Revolution pick: Draw
Kalshi probability: 27%
The Revs are going the wrong way, having taken just five points on the road from eight matches. Meanwhile, DC United have been consistently inconsistent at home, with three wins, three draws, and three defeats.
What they’ve consistently done all season is draw with their opponents — and I’m backing them to do so for the ninth time in their last 13 league fixtures.
FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC pick: FC Cincinnati
Kalshi probability: 50%
NYCFC looked awful in the second half against Philadelphia, as they blew a 2-0 lead to lose a third straight in all competitions.
Cincinnati have scored 28 goals in nine home fixtures so far, and they’ll be looking to get back to winning ways after a hard-fought draw in Orlando that could’ve gone their way. Evander is in fine form and will be the difference on the night.
Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire pick: Orlando City
Kalshi probability: 34%
The Fire claimed their fifth victory in all competitions on Sunday night against Portland, but after taking an early 2-0 lead, they were outplayed by the Timbers and were fortunate to win.
Orlando City have the benefit of an extra day’s rest and playing at home for the second match in a row, which makes them a strong value to take all three points.
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami FC pick: Draw
Kalshi probability: 23%
A managerial change and the return of Kai Wagner have Philadelphia suddenly looking like a much different side. Add in a red-hot Cavan Sullivan, and you have a side that can give Inter Miami problems.
That said, the Herons have taken 25 points away from home — the most in the league — and will want to rebound after their humiliating defeat to Nashville. With both teams sharing the same win probability, this feels like a great spot to capitalize on the draw.
New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC pick: Nashville
Kalshi probability: 43%
Nashville did more than make a statement on Saturday night when they dismantled Inter Miami by a 4-1 scoreline. They put the league on notice that they’re the best of the bunch, now five points clear of the Herons in the Eastern Conference.
Their attacking trio of Sam Surridge, Hany Mukhtar, and Cristian Espinoza will terrorize a NYRB defense that has conceded 41 goals in 19 matches and just fell to lowly Atlanta United.
Toronto FC vs Charlotte FC pick: Charlotte
Kalshi probability: 33%
No team got luckier this weekend than Toronto, who picked up a 2-1 win over the Revs despite a 2.29-0.24 xG disadvantage. Toronto were outshot 24-3 and held on after going down a man.
With Djordje Mihailovic suspended, Charlotte and red-hot Pep Biel present strong value to pick up their fifth MLS victory in seven matches.
Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis CITY SC pick: St Louis CITY SC
Kalshi probability: 50%
No Marcel Hartel, no problem for St. Louis. Their 3-1 win over the Earthquakes saw them jump ahead early, and they dominated with a 2.63-0.19 xG advantage.
They enter the rivalry match with Sporting on a 10-match unbeaten run in all competitions, while Sporting have lost four of five, haven’t scored in three matches, and have finished with 10 men in consecutive fixtures.
Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC pick: Draw
Kalshi probability: 24%
Minnesota are struggling to create chances, and their late equalizer against Salt Lake gave them their fourth draw in five MLS matches.
It’s been more than three months since their last league victory, and injuries are piling up. Atlanta’s not a great road team, but they look dangerous enough to condemn the Loons to yet another stalemate.
Colorado Rapids vs LAFC pick: Colorado
Kalshi probability: 35%
Colorado holds value here. They’ve won three straight at home without conceding a goal, and their only blemish in the last four matches was a defeat at St. Louis.
LAFC are wasting chances, and it bit them as they fell 1-0 at home to San Diego. With just one win in their last five in all comps, the seat is getting quite hot for manager Marc Dos Santos.
Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas pick: FC Dallas
Kalshi probability: 25%
A 50% probability feels far too high for an RSL side that sold star homegrown winger Zavier Gozo to Crystal Palace on Tuesday afternoon.
FC Dallas have won their last two visits to Salt Lake City in all competitions, and have already beaten RSL in Big D this season. They’ve claimed 17 road points, second-most in the west, and they present good value here to pull the upset.
Seattle Sounders FC vs Austin FC pick: Draw
Kalshi probability: 22%
There’s no end in sight to the losing for Seattle, who have now dropped seven straight in MLS play. That said, Austin have yet to win on the road this season, conceding 29 goals and scoring 10 in 10 matches.
There’s no way I’m backing the Sounders at 58% probability, so I’m looking at the draw — a result both sides might actually be okay with.
LA Galaxy vs San Jose Earthquakes pick: San Jose
Kalshi probability: 35%
San Jose’s back line looks lost, and Timo Werner’s been a no-show of late. Thankfully for them, they’re facing a Galaxy side that forgot how to score goals, and they got midfielder Niko Tsakiris back this weekend.
The Earthquakes have taken 19 points on the road this season, second only to Inter Miami, and present solid value to do so again.
Portland Timbers vs San Diego FC: Draw
Kalshi probability: 24%
Congratulations to San Diego, who finally got a road win since a victory over Sporting KC in early March. They now hit the road to Portland, who are traveling cross-country after a late Sunday game.
If San Diego were at full strength, I’d back them to win — but Anders Dreyer’s red card is a massive blow to their chances as they’ll have to settle for a share of the spoils.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs Houston Dynamo pick: Draw
Kalshi probability: 21%
The best matchup of the week is saved for last — but it might also be the most boring. Vancouver finally found offense against Seattle, but they’re still figuring out how they want to play without Sebastian Berhalter.
Houston suddenly have strung together four clean-sheet victories, albeit against offensively-challenged sides. That said, the Dynamo outplayed Vancouver at home in May, and they’re good enough to go up north and claim another result here.
Jason Ence’s 2026 Transparency Record
- Moneyline picks: 92-124, -8.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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