Chris Vasile
• Betting Analyst
13+ years betting experience
Updated:
Sep 19, 2026 , 08:19 AM ET
• 4 min read
Coming off a perfect 3-0 week, Chris Vasile’s college football Over/Under picks target an SEC showdown the market may be overreacting to.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (6) passes the ball.
Last week was perfect. Now, we run it back.
After sweeping the board with a 3-0 record on our totals, I’m on the hunt for another clean sweep with my favorite college football Over/Under picks today.
This week’s card has a little bit of everything: an SEC showdown where defense could steal the spotlight, a Mountain West matchup built for points, and a Notre Dame offense I expect to do plenty of the heavy lifting.
Perfection is a tough act to follow, but the dream of back-to-back 3-0 Saturdays is alive.
Check out all of our college football picks for Saturday’s Week 3 slate.
College football Over/Under picks for 3
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert 3 CFB Over/Under picks
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LSU vs Ole Miss: Under 58.5
Kalshi probability: 51%
LSU’s defense is the biggest reason I’m playing the Under. The Tigers have allowed just 24 points through two games, including 10 against Clemson, while holding opponents to 2.5 yards per play and averaging 5.5 sacks per game. That pressure matters against an Ole Miss offense that has protected Trinidad Chambliss extremely well but hasn’t faced a front this disruptive.
LSU has also controlled possession for more than 35 minutes per game, giving it another way to limit Ole Miss possessions. I expect both offenses to face their toughest defensive test of the season, making something like Ole Miss 27, LSU 24 a realistic outcome.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame: Over 52.5
Kalshi probability: 50%
Notre Dame should do most of the heavy lifting for this Over. The Irish have already scored 41 and 52 points in their first two games, while CJ Carr threw four touchdowns against Rice before leaving in the third quarter. Notre Dame’s defense can help the total, too, forcing six turnovers through two games, creating opportunities for short fields or even defensive scores.
Michigan State has already allowed five plays of 20+ yards against Toledo, including touchdowns of 60 and 71 yards. If Notre Dame gets into the 40s, the Spartans may only need a couple of touchdowns to push this game Over 52.5.
Fresno State vs San Jose State Over 48.5
Kalshi probability: 55%
San Jose State has scored at least 26 points in all three games, including 26 against USC, and Luke Weaver has thrown multiple touchdowns in every start. The Spartans now face a Fresno State defense allowing 407 yards and 6.1 yards per play, including a 71% opponent completion rate.
Fresno’s offense also showed significant improvement last week, with Jayden Mandal completing 23 of 26 passes for 316 yards and two touchdowns against Sacramento State. San Jose State has surrendered at least 20 points in every game, so we don’t need a shootout to clear this relatively modest number. Fresno 28, SJSU 24 gets there comfortably.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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