Updated:
Oct 22, 2026 , 04:19 PM ET
• 4 min read
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the clear-cut favorite in the Heisman Trophy odds over Darian Mensah, but the gap has narrowed after some Week 7 intrigue.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith and Miami QB Darian Mensah.
The 2026 Heisman Trophy odds still go through Jeremiah Smith (43%) of the Ohio State Buckeyes, but Miami Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah has narrowed the gap considerably heading into Week 8.
Let’s look at the latest college football odds to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy.
Heisman Trophy odds
Odds as of 10-22. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.
Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring.
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Heisman Trophy favorites
Jeremiah Smith (43%)
Jeremiah Smith is closing in on 1,000 yards receiving already after Ohio State beat Indiana. However, he went for a season-low 68 yards, and saw his three-game multi-touchdown streak go by the boards.
To make matters worse, Buckeyes QB Julian Sayin is out indefintely following an arm injury.
Darian Mensah (22%)
Darian Mensah went from 11% to 22% at Kalshi after piling up 326 yards and three TDs in Miami’s victory over Florida State in Week 7.
Miami is a Top 10 team in the nation, but plays only one ranked opponent (Notre Dame) all year. His Heisman campaign hinges on that game on November 7.
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Heisman Trophy prediction
Conner Weigman to win
Kalshi probability: 1%
Here’s why Rob Paul is adding Conner Weigman to his Heisman portfolio for Week 8:
“It might sound insane to say Weigman should be in the Heisman conversation at midseason, but he has the numbers, and if Houston upsets Utah this Saturday, he’s going to see his probability jump. Do I think Weigman will win the Heisman? Of course not, but if he beats Utah (Houston has never lost to the Utes), he’s an easy sell candidate for a profit down the line. And while it all hinges on a win Saturday, Weigman should be priced higher than he is right now due to his sheer productivity.”
Pick made on 10-22.
Heisman Trophy winners by position
| Position | Heisman Trophy Awards |
|---|---|
| Running back | 40 |
| Quarterback | 39 |
| Wide receiver | 4 |
| Tight end | 2 |
| Fullback | 2 |
| Halfback | 2 |
| Cornerback | 2 |
Running backs won the Heisman Trophy 11 straight times from 1973 to 1983.
Heisman Trophy trends
Here are a few trends to keep in mind for the biggest individual award of the college football season.
- Quarterbacks have dominated this award over the last 20 years, with 16 Heisman winners playing under center.
- The Heisman trophy winner usually comes from a team with a shot at winning the national title, even though it is a regular season award. Since 2000, 14 Heisman trophy winners have played for teams that made it to the national championship game. If you’re handicapping the Heisman, you might want to consider looking at which teams have the best chance of winning the title on the NCAA futures odds board.
- Even though DeVonta Smith won the Heisman in 2020, he is one of only five seniors to win the Heisman in the last 20 years.
Heisman Trophy history
Here’s a look at the last 10 Heisman Trophy winners and their preseason odds via Sports Odds History.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Heisman Trophy Odds FAQs
Jeremiah Smith is favored to win the Heisman Trophy.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy in 2025.
Quarterbacks have won 16 of the last 20 Heisman Trophies.
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