NBA Predictions and Moneyline Picks: Saturday, Oct. 31

Saturday’s seven-game NBA slate tips off with the Trail Blazers vs. Jazz at 3:00 p.m. ET and wraps up with the Thunder vs. Rockets at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Our NBA moneyline picks cover every game in tipoff order, priced with Polymarket probabilities. The San Antonio Spurs (80%) are the heaviest favorites on the board, while the Philadelphia 76ers (51%) are our longest shot. Find more analysis in our NBA picks, NBA player prop projections, and NBA odds.

NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 31

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Percentages courtesy of Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.

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Expert NBA moneyline picks: Oct. 31

Trail Blazers vs Jazz: Trail Blazers 

The Utah Jazz have gone from featuring a massive frontcourt of Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Jusuf Nurkic in the preseason to potentially being without all three, with Jackson and Nurkic sidelined and Markkanen questionable with a wrist sprain.

What was once a major strength is now a weakness, especially against a Portland Trail Blazers team with multiple players capable of attacking downhill, along with 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan’s presence as a lob threat and on the offensive glass.

Ja Morant’s absence doesn’t significantly impact Portland’s projections given its backcourt depth, with Jrue Holiday stepping into the starting lineup. At 67%, give me the Trail Blazers.

76ers vs Hornets: 76ers 

I’m going to call it like it is: this is a difficult matchup to price given both teams’ schedule spot and the potential for load management with existing injuries.

Jaylen Brown being ruled out on Friday further complicates things, as Joel Embiid and LeBron James could also sit in a back-to-back spot. That’s a significant amount of production and minutes exiting the starting lineups if all three sit.

The Charlotte Hornets have their own back-to-back concerns, and already being without Coby White and Kon Knueppel leaves them vulnerable if additional players sit.

At 51%, I’m backing the Philadelphia 76ers because I price them as 55% favorites with James and Embiid playing but Brown sidelined. That gives me some cushion if another Philadelphia starter is ruled out.

I don’t have the same margin with the Hornets trading at 50%, as I’d need another 76ers starter ruled out to consider that price fair value.

Hawks vs Pelicans: Hawks 

At 60%, I’m definitely hitting the button on the Atlanta Hawks, who I price closer to 68% favorites in this matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans. That makes this one of the board’s bigger edges.

Dejounte Murray will rejoin the Pelicans today after missing their last game against the Kings for the birth of his son. 

That’s significant because his return pushes Herb Jones out of the starting lineup. That’s a massive mistake by New Orleans, but a win for us as traders.

Kings vs Grizzlies: Grizzlies 

The Memphis Grizzlies are trading at 79%, and I’m more than happy to take that price because they should be even bigger favorites. 

Where do we even begin with the mismatches? The Sacramento Kings don’t have a defender capable of slowing Ty Jerome. Domantas Sabonis faces a frontcourt featuring 7-foot-4 Zach Edey, Cam Boozer — who recently became the youngest player to record a triple-double — and Isaiah Stewart, who just dropped 18 points off the bench.

Memphis’ 5-0 start is no fluke. This team is playing really good basketball. That’s reflected in my projections, which show a gap between their true win probability and the current market price.

Cavaliers vs Bucks: Cavaliers 

I’ve had my eyes on the Cleveland Cavaliers early and often to start the season. I’ve been especially interested to see how Peyton Watson fits into the starting lineup and whether Evan Mobley can take another offensive leap.

Against the Milwaukee Bucks, the veteran backcourt of James Harden and Donovan Mitchell should manipulate ball screens with Cleveland’s bigs, creating easy dunks for their lob threats or forcing isolation mismatches against inexperienced defenders.

The Bucks are giving significant minutes to several young players off the bench, including Kasparas Jakucionis, Brayden Burries, and Nate Ament. Harden and Mitchell will hunt those matchups and use their experience to exploit Milwaukee’s green defenders.

Timberwolves vs Spurs: Spurs 

This is where the Minnesota Timberwolves really start to feel Anthony Edwards’ absence. They’re on the back end of a road back-to-back against the San Antonio Spurs, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Minnesota is cautious with its rotation.

Load management could also come into play. The Timberwolves need to be careful with how much they ask of LaMelo Ball, especially after he didn’t log heavy minutes with the Hornets last season. The last thing Minnesota wants is to overwork Ball and risk another injury while waiting for Edwards to return.

The bottom line is that even if Minnesota’s full roster suits up, I still see a slight edge with the Spurs at 80%. It’s a minimal edge for now, but it could improve significantly as we get closer to tipoff.

Thunder vs Rockets: Rockets 

Even with the Houston Rockets on the back end of a back-to-back, this is one of my favorite trades on the board. I price Houston closer to a 66% favorite, giving us a solid edge at the current market price.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been ravaged by injuries and are now without Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso.

The Thunder are built around their defensive identity, but many of their best individual defenders are no longer available. With Jared McCain and Kenrich Williams now expected to start, Houston will have opportunities to exploit a depleted OKC lineup.

I call this one of my favorite trades despite the relatively small probability gap because my current projection does not include Alperen Sengun. If he returns, Houston’s edge could grow significantly, making this an even stronger position by tipoff.

Today’s NBA moneyline combo

The 76ers bring both the most risk and the most upside to this combo. At 51%, they provide the probability that helps boost the payout, but you’re also playing the load-management game.

That said, if the injury report breaks our way, I think we’re stealing a 51% price, increasing the combo’s payout while still giving us a solid edge.

You’re taking on some injury-report risk, but I think it’s worth it. And honestly, the Hornets look off. Something appears to be wrong in that locker room after Naz Reid’s benching and Friday’s subsequent blowout.

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