This is my midpoint check-in on the best prospects still in the minors, including players drafted a week and a half ago who have signed but have not debuted in pro ball. As with my offseason list, I’m focused more on ceiling than floor, but I do consider the player’s probability of reaching his ceiling or something close to it. Please keep in mind that my offseason Top 100 ranking is a month-long process, while this ranking is more of a week-plus process, and has some more built-in recency bias than the rankings I run every February.
This list only includes players currently in the minor leagues who retain rookie eligibility. These are not the same criteria I use for offseason lists, where I only go by rookie eligibility regardless of roster status, since there is no active 26-man roster in the winter. Roman Anthony, Chase Burns, and Jacob Misiorowski aren’t here because they’re on major-league rosters right now.
With the new rankings now published, we’re doing a Live Q&A today (Thursday, July 24) at 1 p.m. ET. Please send questions.
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I don’t know if McGonigle can play shortstop … and I kind of don’t care. It’s probably the best hit tool in the minors and he backs it up with hard, hard contact, along with what turns out to be some of the best strike zone judgment anywhere in baseball. He has hit .352/.447/.599 across three levels, which includes six rehab games in the Florida State League, with 30 walks and 22 strikeouts on the season, while showing surprising (to me, at least) power, with peak exit velocities at 112 mph. It’s a great swing, too, geared to put the ball in the air on a line; that was in place in high school, but he’s gotten a lot stronger, so now it’s average and OBP and power. He’s probably going to end up at second, because teams want a plus defender at short and I don’t think he’s going to be that, but he’s better defensively now than he was in high school, too. I can’t believe Rogers Hornsby played a half hour from my house and I didn’t know it.
Clark is an 80 runner – if he slowed down last year, he’s found that fourth gear again – and easy plus defender in center who also walked more than he struck out in High A, with a .285/.430/.427 line for West Michigan before he bumped up to the Double-A Erie … uh, Moon Mammoths. There’s above-average power there, at least, with strong plate judgment and speed that plays on both sides of the ball, more so because he’s aggressive (and smart) on the bases. The Tigers are in good shape.
What if Wetherholt was, in fact, the best player in the 2024 draft class all along? He slipped to the seventh pick in large part because he was hurt so much of the spring with a recurring hamstring issue that dated back to the previous summer. He hit .300/.425/.466 in Double A this year, barely missing a day, and went 8 for 20 in his first six games in Triple A, with a .400/.500/.800 line there in the small sample. He’s probably going to move over to second base in deference to a plus defender at some point, but he’s an average or so shortstop with good instincts. The value here is the bat, and he can really, really hit.
Emerson started the year with plenty of hard contact without much to show for it in the box scores, but the 2023 first-rounder – who just turned 20 over this past weekend – has been on a tear lately, with a .303/.411/.529 line and almost as many walks (22) as strikeouts (24) from June 1 through this past Sunday. He’s made some very small adjustments, but with big results, going from a 59 percent groundball rate through the end of May to a 40 percent one since then, so the hard contact is turning into more extra-base hits. He’s going to stick at shortstop, which wasn’t a sure thing at all when he was drafted, with a plus hit tool and potentially above-average power.
Made is a ridiculously twitchy, athletic shortstop who shows outstanding range at the position and electric hands at the plate, hitting .273/.382/.399 so far as a true 18-year-old in Low A after jumping completely past the complex league. He does have to gain some strength, hardly surprising given his youth, but his overall feel for the game is outstanding, and he makes a lot of contact already with an all-fields approach. I think he’s going to end up a plus defender at short with the kind of offensive skill set that makes him likely to be the most valuable player on his team.
Walcott is definitely not a shortstop, and I have heard from some scouts that they don’t think he’s going to stay on the dirt at all, although for now I am sticking with third base as his ultimate position. He just turned 19 in March, making him the youngest regular in Double A, and he’s just one homer away from matching his 2024 season total of 11 already, with a .248/.344/.400 line and just a 21.6 percent strikeout rate despite his disadvantage in age and experience. He’s very physical and is going to end up with huge power, so the fact that he’s already showing good command of the zone is a big positive. Thirty homers a year with strong walk totals will play at any position.
Painter has recovered fully from 2023 Tommy John surgery and is back to pitching in the 94-98 range with a hammer curveball and at least an average changeup, showing average or better control in Triple A even with that level’s higher walk rates. The Phillies have given him a slider to try to take advantage of his arm speed and his ability to spin the ball; it wasn’t very good when I saw him, although I’ve had other scouts say they’ve seen it above-average and it’s generated a 33 percent whiff rate so far this year. It’s a clear starter’s build and delivery, with the three- or four-pitch mix to turn a lineup over multiple times and get guys on both sides of the plate, and he’s got at least one true out pitch in the curveball. I don’t project many guys to be No. 1 starters, but Painter is one of the very few who checks every box.
Basallo continues to rake in Triple A, with a .264/.383/.591 line (through Sunday’s games) that has him one homer off his career high already, with the caveat that offense – especially walk and contact rates – is higher in Triple A than at lower levels. He’s only caught in about 40 percent of his games, splitting the remainder between first base and DH, with Adley Rutschman holding down the catching spot in Baltimore. But there’s more reason to question Basallo’s future behind the plate, with worse scouting reports this year on his receiving and Baltimore’s choice to pass him over multiple times for a callup. The bat is going to play anywhere, though, and he may instead just be their 30-homer first baseman of the future.
Arias continues to make hard contact at high rates in High A, still hitting the ball on the ground a little more than you’d like for his profile (49 percent), with an all-fields approach and very strong pitch recognition, especially breaking balls. He’s only whiffed on 5 percent of fastballs he’s swung at since getting to High A, thanks to elite bat speed, and has a reverse platoon split because he can pick up right-on-right breaking stuff, with worse results against changeups than any other pitch. He’s a true shortstop with great actions and plenty of arm as well. He still has some work to do at the plate to convert his tools into more extra-base power, with All-Star upside as a shortstop who hits for average with 20-ish homer power.
Griffin had the best package of tools in the 2024 draft class, potentially 80s in speed, arm strength, and power, but most scouts had serious questions about whether he could hit between the awful competition he faced in Mississippi and the severe arm bar he has at the plate. He has hit unbelievably well given those concerns, reminiscent of how Jordan Walker came out of the gate in his full-season debut in 2021; Griffin hit .338/.396/.536 with a 23 percent strikeout rate in Low A, and has hit .297/.405/.475 so far in high A with just a 19.8 percent strikeout rate (through Sunday). He’s also played much better defense at shortstop than expected, as the majority view pre-draft seemed to be that he’d end up in center field (and be good there). The arm bar is still there and a huge concern; maybe he’s just so athletic and quick-handed that he can get away with that where others can’t.
Jenkins has only played about a month in Double A this year around yet more injuries, continuing an unfortunate trend that saw him play just 82 games in all of 2024. He’s getting on base at a high clip without showing much power yet in games. But he can really hit, and he does have plus power in there, with strong zone awareness and high contact rates – his strikeout rate in Double A was just 17.3 percent through Sunday. The Twins have kept him in center field this year, but he’s going to end up in right field, both given his size and their steady supply of guys who can play plus defense or better in center. If he stays healthy, he has All-Star upside, a high-average, 20-25 homer guy who might even be a plus defender in a corner.
Chandler has the best overall fastball in the minors when you consider the entire package, including how hitters respond to it (not well, from their perspective). They whiff on it about a third of the time they swing, and if he threw it for strikes a little more often, he could probably be a No. 2 starter just with that pitch and his plus changeup. He’s still working on the breaking ball, throwing the slider about twice as often as the curve, with the slider around average – which is trending up, at least. He’s a superb athlete who was also a shortstop and a quarterback in high school, and unlike a lot of former quarterbacks who take to the mound, Chandler gets a ton of life on his fastball. He did hit a rough stretch in June, walking 12 in 12 innings across five starts, but came out of that with two strong starts ahead of the All-Star Break before a clunker in Nashville right afterwards. I do think his command and control will continue to take time, but I’ll bet on a pitcher this athletic to continue to improve there. It’s No. 1 starter upside, and No. 3 starter floor.
De Vries is 18 in High A and more than holding his own, hitting comfortably above the league average despite being the youngest regular at that level. He’s a switch-hitter who’s clearly better from the left side, even though he hit for more power right-handed last year, with a strong left-handed swing that’s going to produce at least a ton of extra-base hits to the gaps. He’s a definite shortstop who might end up plus there, with a 60 arm and plenty of lateral range. He would have been a high school senior this spring had he grown up anywhere covered by the draft, and he’s already producing in High A; that alone would mark him as a potential star.
Lombard blew away High-A pitching for less than a month before the Yankees bumped him up to Double A, where he’s continued to show an advanced feel for the zone but hasn’t had much in the way to show for it in his average or slugging. He’s an outstanding athlete who definitely stays at short and probably ends up at least a 60 defender there. At the plate, at least some of the difficulty is just timing; he’s produced more weak contact, and he’s had trouble with better velocity, despite having plenty of bat speed. It may be that this was the right move for him, so he could be challenged by better pitching in Double A and have the full summer to make adjustments. He’s an everyday shortstop who should hit for average with good OBPs and plus defense, maybe with just 12-15 homers a year – still a very valuable player.
Lawlar got another call-up this year, his first since 2023, and it went … well, he went 0 for 19 with nine strikeouts, so, not great, Bob. He went back to Triple A, where he’s been mashing for Reno (elevation 4,505 feet), but suffered another hamstring strain, the main injury that ruined his 2024 season. He’s been out since June 25. On talent alone, he’d be a Top 5 prospect in baseball, despite the whole no-hits thing in the majors this year, but he has been hurt so often in his pro career that it is also just possible he’s not going to be durable enough to handle a position up the middle every day. If he does, he should hit for high averages with 15-20 homer power, and he can play plus defense at short if healthy.
Quero missed 2024 with a shoulder injury that required surgery, started out 2025 in extended, then went up to Triple A at the start of June, where he’s hit credibly albeit not up to his pre-surgery levels just yet. His arm is still above-average, and he’s receiving well again. He’s just been unusually undisciplined at the plate, chasing pitches well out of the zone 39 percent of the time through Sunday’s games. Maybe he’s trying to make up for lost time or thinks that’s how to hit his way to the majors. He wasn’t that kind of hacker before the time off, so I’m hopeful he’ll calm back down and become the high-contact, average-power guy he was prior to the injury. That’d make him an above-average regular behind the plate given his defensive skills.
De Paula may end up at first base, but with the potential in his bat it shouldn’t matter; he’s extremely disciplined and has easy plus power already, which he flashed when he won the Futures Game MVP because he hit the game’s only home run. He’s extremely disciplined, swinging at pitches well out of the zone just 8 percent of the time, while also taking a lot of called strikes as he waits for his pitch. That can go too far, obviously, but so far he’s making the right choices, hitting .258/.402/.413 with 10 homers as a 20-year-old in High A. There should be more power as he gets older and moves up the ladder more, with 25- to 30-homer upside, and that combined with what will probably be high walk rates would make him a very good regular to a star even if he moves from the corner outfield to first.
Williams is healthy again this year and raking, hitting .291/.399/.495 so far in Double A as a 21-year-old. He takes a huge swing for a little fella, but he makes it work with enough strength and superb strike zone awareness. He’s a natural shortstop with a move to second or center always on the table, especially with Francisco Lindor in front of him, so he’s played a little at those positions and shouldn’t have trouble transitioning to either spot. Center is the better bet since he’s a plus runner, while his bat will profile as an above-average regular at any of those spots.
Quintero homered three times last year in 83 games, mostly in the complex league, and I wrote in February that if the power came, he could be a superstar. He hit 14 homers in his first 80 games this year, all for Low-A Rancho Cucamonga, without giving up any of his patience or contact, just driving the ball more to all fields. He does land open when he gets that front foot down, so you can get him to miss on breaking stuff down and away – even in the zone – and that’ll have to be fixed at some point. The advanced feel to hit in a center fielder with emerging power already gives him a pretty high floor of at least a soft regular, with the ceiling of a top-10 player in his league.
Holliday was the top player on my board going into the draft, and I’m not changing the relative order of those players at all just yet – although I will likely do so this winter, after some of them have played or at least appeared in instructs or “bridge league” (unofficial games at the complexes). Holliday is a big shortstop with power who ran into some swing-and-miss issues at showcases in 2024 and a little bit this spring, some of which at least is because he has a soft front side and can whiff on lefty breaking stuff or roll any offspeed stuff to second more than he should. He knows the strike zone, has bat speed, and has easy plus power, and I think he’ll be able to make the mechanical adjustments to boost his contact rate. He may not stay at short because of his eventual size, but he has the hands and instincts to stick there, with third base the worst-case scenario. I buy the upside here, but acknowledge there’s more risk than his brother presented at the same age.
Montgomery broke his ankle in the super regionals in June 2024, slid to the No. 13 pick in the draft, signed with Boston but didn’t play a game before they shipped him to the White Sox in the Garrett Crochet deal, and finally made his pro debut this spring in Low A. He’s spent most of the year in High A, hitting .256/.342/.444 there while playing right and center, hitting for more average and on-base percentage left-handed with more power right-handed, in line with what I saw from him in college. He’s whiffing on pitches in the zone, including fastballs, much more than I anticipated, though, and that’s mildly concerning for an SEC product in High A, even giving him some grace for the injury and lost time. It hasn’t been improving with time, either, and that’s the main thing I need to see from him in the second half to hold my evaluation of him as a future 55 (above-average regular) in right field.
Briceño moved up to Double-A Erie with McGonigle and Clark after hitting .296/.422/.602 with 15 homers in 55 games in High A, walking once more than he struck out. He’s got a great, simple swing for a bigger guy, and his command of the strike zone is as good as you’d expect from the stat line. I’ve still never seen the man catch; he’s played first or DH’d every time I’ve seen him, including the Thursday before the Futures Game, and this year the Tigers have played him slightly more at first base than behind the plate. His defense never received good marks back there anyway, but at this point, I’d advise moving him out to get his bat into the lineup more often.
Doyle was the top pitcher on my pre-draft board, as he had the draft’s most unhittable fastball, up to 100 with life up in the zone that hitters struggled to pick up out of his hand. He’s got a plus splitter to pair with it, working up with the heater and down with the split, along with a slider that doesn’t grade out that well on shape but that plays up because of the deception in the delivery and the way hitters were geared up for the fastball. Some teams didn’t love the delivery and thought he’d end up in relief; I see that possibility, but he also repeats his mechanics so well and holds his stuff deep into games well enough that he has to go out as a starter. The Cardinals might be the perfect spot for him to refine the slider and maybe make some small changes to the delivery to improve his odds of staying in the rotation. He has No. 2 starter upside and, at worst, looks like he’d be an animal out of the pen.
Anderson dominated for LSU this spring, including several starts of 120-plus pitches, showing two fastballs in a five-pitch mix that featured a 70 changeup. His pitches grade out extremely well by their data, and he’s a tremendous competitor who led Division I in strikeouts this spring and doesn’t give in to hitters at all. I didn’t love how LSU used him and I assume he’ll be shut down until next year to try to give his arm a rest, but still expect him to debut before 2026 is out.
Miller’s return to Double A hasn’t gone as well as hoped, as he’s drawn some walks but hasn’t done a whole lot else, even though his home park in Reading is the best hitter’s park in the Eastern League. It’s not that hard to see why – he’s whiffing on non-fastballs 37 percent of the time (through Sunday), and on fastballs just 14 percent of the time. He had some similar pitch recognition issues in High A last year, but he hasn’t made a real adjustment yet with Reading, with July shaping up as his worst month. He’s a solid or better defender at short and has plenty of bat speed; it’s really just a matter of picking up offspeed stuff and making better decisions on them.
Condon broke his wrist on a diving play in spring training and missed the first eight weeks of the minor league season before returning to High A, where he improved on last year’s disastrous debut by hitting .312/.431/.420 in 35 games before Colorado bumped him up to Double A. He’s continued to hit at that higher level, still not showing a ton of power – unsurprising off a wrist injury this year and a thumb one last year – but, more concerningly, still showing a lot of trouble picking up sliders. He’s seen 48 so far in Double A (per data from Synergy Sports), swung at half of those, and whiffed on half of those swings. When he hits them, it’s for damage, and that might be what saves him given this deficiency at the plate. Assuming that 30-homer power he showed before the injuries is still there, he may be more of a low-OBP, high-power guy, at least until and unless he shows he can pick up the slider much better than he has to date.
The Jaguar started slow this year in Triple A, as has been his pattern, and has been improving as the season has gone on, cutting his strikeout rate and showing more juice while playing all three outfield spots. It’s already at least 60 power, probably more, and he’s still got room to fill out his 6-6 frame. There’s still too much chase in his game and he’s vulnerable enough to sliders that I wouldn’t rush him to the majors this year; he’s 23 now (seasonal age of 22), but he’s still succeeding more on his physical abilities than overall game. It’s 25-plus homer power in center field with plus speed, and I’ll be surprised if he’s still a Cub on August 1.
The Giants remain very aggressive with Eldridge, bumping him to Triple A last month despite a 27.9 percent strikeout rate in Double A, and he’s struggled in his brief time in the new level – hardly a surprise given his inexperience and the size of the 6-foot-7 small-g giant’s strike zone. He’s still got 70 power, topping out at 114.6 mph for Sacramento this year, and if he were at a more appropriate level for his age and experience I have little doubt he’d be hitting for average. He was in the same draft class as Kevin McGonigle, for example, and McGonigle didn’t get the call to Double A until after Eldridge was in Triple A. There’s no rush here, especially given the poor history of hitters this tall, who (among other things) must learn to cover a lot of area at the plate. You can still see the 30-homer, solid OBP upside here, maybe with average defense (and a plus arm), but it’s going to take time.
The D-Backs’ second pick in the 2024 draft, Waldschmidt destroyed High-A pitching earlier this year before a promotion in late June to Double-A Amarillo, a crazy hitter’s park where, surprisingly, he’s homered just once so far. He’s a good hitter who happens to have power, and is making plenty of contact in Double A, possibly just getting too pull-conscious (small sample size caveats definitely apply). He’s mostly played left field this year and that’s probably where he’ll stay, so he does have to hit to be an above-average regular. I’m predicting a huge second half from Waldschmidt, boosted by the ballpark, which at least gets him to Reno – another great place to hit – if not further south.
The Mets’ first-round pick in 2024, Benge made a small mechanical adjustment at the plate around mid-April – right after I saw him the first time this year, coincidentally – and has absolutely taken off since then, even through a promotion to Double A in late June. His power hasn’t fully come out in games, as his swing gets handsy and he doesn’t lift the ball as much as he could. So right now, it’s high-average, high-OBP production with a lot of doubles. There’s 20-25 homer power in there with what would probably be a small swing adjustment. He’s moved between center and right this year, with an arm that would play anywhere.
Arquette was the top college position player in this year’s draft class, but only went No. 7, the latest that’s happened since 2004, when Stephen Drew went No. 15 but got the draft’s highest bonus. (If you’re curious, going back to 1972, the top college position player selected has only failed to reach the majors twice, their average WAR through 2019 is about 15.0, the median WAR is 10.2, and a quarter of them have topped 20.0 WAR. Taking the best college position player is usually going to be a good move.) Arquette hit .354/.461/.654 with 19 homers for Oregon State this year as the Beavers played an independent schedule. He made a ton of contact in the zone with plenty of raw power. He’s a shortstop now with the hands and arm to stay there, but would be one of the biggest shortstops in MLB history, as he’s already 6-foot-5 and 230-ish. He could end up similar to Troy Glaus, who was actually the second college position player taken in his draft class.
Rodriguez’s story is the same this year as it has been every year — he’s hitting well, getting on base a ton, but has been hurt as much as he’s been healthy. This year he’s missed time with a hip injury and now an oblique strain that I assume will keep him out well into August, hitting .254/.411/.428 with strikeout and chase rates that would rank as his worst since the complex. That could be the result of the injuries and missed time, or that he’s struggling with Triple A pitching – or both, most likely. He’s a center fielder in name but probably going to right between his range and his frequent injuries, so there’s a little more pressure on the bat. He has the on-base skills, and the raw power is there, with 10 percent of his batted balls in Triple A this year coming off at 109 mph or harder. He’s got to stay on the field.
Salas hasn’t played since my last update, going on the IL in late May with a stress reaction in his lower back, and the news this week is that he’s unlikely to play again this season, although I imagine that does not preclude a return trip to the Arizona Fall League. That leaves us with … not much, really. He played in just 10 games this year and hit .188/.325/.219, walking more than he struck out, but obviously not showing any power. He could have been hurt the whole time, of course, and he was extremely young to be in Double A. I hope he plays somewhere this offseason, whether it’s the AFL or the Venezuelan Winter League or another option, to try to make up for some of the lost reps.
Ballesteros made his MLB debut earlier this year, going 3-for-16 with just one strikeout and two walks, and he’ll be back if the Cubs need a DH at any point … but not if they need a catcher, clearly, since they didn’t give him an inning back there in that stint. He can hit, though, barely whiffing on anything in the majors, mashing .339/.397/.500 through Sunday’s games in Triple A, with one of the best contact skills anywhere in the minors. He’s got above-average power, maybe getting to 20+ homers a year in his peak seasons, but there isn’t any projection left for more here. If the Cubs had the playing time to give him, he’d hit enough to stick in the majors as an everyday player this year.
Celesten destroyed the Arizona Complex League last year before an injury prevented the Mariners from giving him a taste of Low A, so he started there this year and has hit .278/.338/.373 as a 19-year-old, with solid contact rates from both sides. It’s below what I expected from him given the tools and the brief performance in Arizona, but his home park in Modesto is a lousy place to hit and he’s at .321/.396/.445 on the road (all stats through Sunday’s games). He’s a strong defender at short and there’s going to be power here, although it’s possible we won’t see it until he’s at a higher level.
Nimmala has shown power and patience as a 19-year-old in High A this year, a long way from the awful start he had in Low A the year before that led the Jays to send him back to the complex for a reset. He’s been in a slump for about a month, bringing down his season line, but it looks like a lot of bad luck, with a lot of squared-up balls hit right at fielders and a .181 BABIP in his last month. He’s going to stick at shortstop, he’s at least shown flashes of the plus power projected for him, and he’s still young for the level.
Made is the future superstar in the Carolina Mudcats’ lineup, while Peña is probably going to reach the majors first and has the better pure hit tool. He’s a plus runner with excellent hand-eye coordination at the plate, taking a “see ball, hit ball” approach, and bringing average power so that plenty of that contact turns into hits. He’s played short, second, and third this year, mostly shortstop, with second the most likely long-term spot.
Rainer’s pro debut was going well until he injured his right shoulder diving into first base in early June. He was hitting .288/.383/.448 through 35 games with a 22 percent strikeout rate at the time, while of course playing plus defense at shortstop. My main concern about him before the draft was that his bat speed wasn’t great and he might struggle to catch up to good velocity; so far, on 41 pitches he’s seen at 95+, he’s only whiffed twice and has two hits, including a homer, although pretty much all of that contact has gone the other way. He’s looked like a more advanced player than a 19-year-old, especially on defense. There’s above-average regular upside here, maybe more if he continues to show he can handle plus fastballs.
Sloan has been dominant in 15 pitch-limited starts in Low A this year, walking just 4.8 percent of batters — I swear, that warms my heart, given how many young pitchers struggle to throw strikes in the jump to full-season ball — while working up to 100 with a plus slider and a change he doesn’t use much but that’s probably a 55. As of Tuesday, he hasn’t gone over 72 pitches or 19 batters faced in a game, so his stuff may not be quite as elite when he’s going 100 pitches per start, and his results will probably slip some when he’s facing hitters a third time every game. The early returns are fantastic, though, and he looks like at least a No. 2 starter.
Crawford is maddening — he’s an 80 runner, at least a 60 and probably a 70 defender in center, and he probably has a 60 hit tool. He starts his hands so high, however, that his path to the ball produces comical groundball rates, over 60 percent just about everywhere he’s played — that’s not the 60 we’re looking for — limiting his ceiling. He doesn’t lack for power, peaking at 110.6 mph this year already, but 110.6 mph on the ground isn’t going to leave the park. As is, he’s a regular, because he hits, gets on base, and adds value on defense and on the bases. He could be more, though, and I’m going to bang that drum until someone helps fix his swing to get him a more typical path with some loft for at least extra-base power.
Irish slid to the 19th pick in this year’s draft but was fifth on my predraft board, as he was one of the best pure hitters in the class regardless of position. He was a catcher until the very beginning of this spring, when he fractured his scapula, and then returned to play mostly right field. It’s hard contact to all fields with a really smart, disciplined approach; if he pulls the ball more, he might be a 25-homer guy, but at the cost of some contact. He’s going to need work in right, as he’s a well below-average defender there right now, although he’s only played it for about half an hour.
Genao missed the first two months of the year with a shoulder sprain, and since his return he hasn’t shown the same power he did last year — which could just be the aftereffects of the shoulder injury, as otherwise he’s putting the ball in play and showing strong plate judgment. He’s an average-ish defender at shortstop who probably ends up bumped to second by a plus defender. It may be a lost year if this is just a result of reduced strength or continued discomfort from the shoulder injury, unfortunately, but I’m hopeful he’ll improve in the second half as he gets further from the injury, and maybe goes to the AFL to pick up some at-bats.
The Athletics’ last two first-round picks are already in the majors, and Arnold, the 11th pick in this draft, probably won’t be far behind. The Florida State lefty comes from a low slot with a fastball that was down a tick this spring to 91-95, and he throws it for strikes along with a hard, sweeping slider and a solid changeup. The angle is tough for hitters on both sides to pick up and he changes speeds extremely well. There may not be huge upside here given where his stuff sat this spring, but he’s as close to big-league ready as any pitcher in this draft class.
The Twins’ first-round pick in 2024 continues to rake after a promotion last month to Double A, although he should probably go around that league a few times to try to tighten up his approach. He’s a true shortstop who projects to stay there and be a 55 or 60 defender, while his line-drive swing has produced more power this year (14 homers through Tuesday) than I anticipated, as it seemed like he’d hit for a lot of hard contact but in the form of more doubles and triples. The low strikeout rate in Double A masks some difficulty he’s had with offspeed stuff at the higher level, and he’s still a little too prone to go after pitches well out of the zone. He looks like at least a solid regular with more upside beyond that if he tightens up his swing decisions.
Kilen was the No. 2 hitter on my predraft board off a spring where he made a ton of hard contact and did so across all pitch types, almost never whiffing on stuff in the zone and posting a hard-hit rate over 50 percent in the SEC. He’s on the smaller side for a power hitter, and there was some concern it wouldn’t hold up with the wood bat, especially since he didn’t show the same kind of pop on the Cape the previous summer. Even if he’s more of a 12-15 homer guy — and I think he’s better than that — he has such a strong feel to hit that he should be at least an above-average regular at second base.
The Password moved up to Triple A in late May, and his bat took off as the plus raw power is showing up more in games while he has continued to make contact at a high rate and at least show some command of the strike zone. It’s not 80 power or even 70, but it plays up because his swing gets the ball into that sweet spot of launch angles. He’s getting the ball in the air this year, but not too much so, and has put more balls in the seats. He’s mostly played center this year, but it’s going to be right field, even aside from the added challenges of playing center in Fenway. I would pump the brakes a little bit here, even though I obviously think he’s a very promising hitter, as he’s had much worse results on breaking stuff in Triple A, and he has to make more of an adjustment to those pitches before he’s ready for the majors. The Sox have already rushed Marcelo Mayer (whiffing on 46 percent of breaking pitches in the majors) when he had a similar weakness, and I don’t think it’s helped him to come up before he was ready.
Bazzana was the top pick last year out of Oregon State, had a solid debut in High A, then got off to a slow start in Double A this year before hitting the IL in mid-May with an oblique strain, only returning last week. He’s struck out quite a bit more than expected, over 26 percent through Sunday, in the limited sample, and his defense has been closer to a 45 (below average) than a 50 (average at second). A strong second half with more contact would answer some of the questions about whether we overrated his hit tool or whether the steep angle of his swing is going to make it hard for him to keep his contact rate up going forward.
The Nats used the first pick in this year’s draft to select Willits, the son of former Angels and Yankees outfielder Reggie Willits, and sign him to a well-under-slot deal that allowed them to take a couple of shots on other high-ceiling high schoolers in later rounds. Willits is going to be a 60 or 70 defender at short, and should make a ton of contact, with a compact swing that’s geared to put the ball in play all over the field. It’s probably 45 power at his peak, projecting to more doubles and triples than homers even in his best years. He won’t turn 18 until December, making him the youngest player on this list by several months.
Hope hasn’t missed a beat after his breakout half-year in Low A in 2024, hitting .286/.390/.468 (through Sunday) for the loaded Great Lakes lineup in High A, although his strikeout rate has risen a few points as we start to see some cracks in his approach. He doesn’t chase much, but when he does, he nearly always whiffs, and he’s missing more pitches in zone against better competition — including plus velocity, a bit surprising for a guy with this much bat speed. That said, he does understand the strike zone well and does a lot of damage on contact, with plus raw power now that’s more like 55 in games. He’ll have to tighten up some of those swing decisions before he gets to Double A. There’s still star-level ceiling here, probably in right field, as his reads and routes aren’t there to keep him in center.
It’s been a long, tortuous road for Prielipp, who is amid his first full, healthy season since 2019 due to the pandemic and multiple elbow surgeries. His 47.2 innings this year is his career high for any season, including college. He’s been sitting in the mid-90s with a plus slider that has high spin rates and huge tilt, while also throwing a changeup that flashes above-average. He’s had a reverse platoon split this year for no real reason I can see; that slider should make him death to left-handed things. The Twins have been careful with him this year, so he hasn’t gone over 62 pitches in any outing, although his control has been good enough that he’s gone four-plus innings a few times despite the pitch limits. If he can hold up, he’s at least a mid-rotation starter, but that’s a big qualifier given the track record.
Sykora’s stuff rivals the top pitchers on this list, as he’s 95-98 with a plus splitter and a solid-average slider already. But his delivery is high-effort and his arm is very late, neither of which is great for durability. He came out of his last start on July 5 with lower right triceps soreness, with the hope that he’ll be back fairly soon. He’d gotten off to a tremendous start, dominating High A after his return from offseason hip labrum surgery with 32 strikeouts and just two walks in 18 innings in four outings, and then walked 12 in 16 1/3 innings in his next four outings, including the one he left after an inning. It’s No. 2 starter stuff, and he showed that kind of command and control earlier this season before the latest injury. I do have doubts about him holding up, given the whole operation.
Tong comes straight over the top, the kind of delivery I normally hate. I mean, I hate Tong’s delivery too, but he really makes the most of it with a lively fastball that’s been up to 98, a 12/6 curveball, and a changeup, all of which have ticked up this year. Minor-league batting averages are very noisy, so there’s a big caveat here, but batters do not see the ball from Tong’s hand. They have just 40 hits off him and 37 walks in 84 innings, with 132 strikeouts (through Tuesday’s games). He does have some trouble working east-west, as you’d expect from that very high arm slot, and those mechanics are not great for long-term arm health. Factors in Tong’s favor are that he’s extremely athletic and repeats the delivery well, and he’s shown the ability to make any adjustments the Mets have asked of him. As long as he’s throwing strikes and the fastball plays like this, I’m giving him every chance to start.
Ko signed 18 months ago for a paltry $650,000 bonus, playing only nine games last summer, but he’s busted out as the Arizona Complex League’s best player this year, leading the ACL in average and OBP (through Tuesday’s games) and ranking ninth in slugging. He’s 6-foot-3, very athletic, with 55 range in center and a plus arm, while he still offers significant projection to get to 20+ home run power as well, especially if the Dodgers loosen up his stance a little so he can get more rotational. There was some question coming into the year about how much he’d hit right out of the gate, but I think he’s answered that fairly well already. Stupid Dodgers, with all their scouts and analysts and “working together” hippie ideas.
Witherspoon was the top right-handed pitcher on my draft board this year, as the uber-athletic Oklahoma pitcher held 95+ deep into games and worked with a five-pitch mix that should end up with at least three above-average weapons. His delivery features an unusual movement after separation where he brings his hand almost straight down, described to me by one evaluator as a “waggle.” It hasn’t inhibited his ability to repeat the delivery or throw strikes. I see at least a mid-rotation starter here, and his athleticism and easy velocity point to the potential for even more.
The No. 8 pick this July, Parker offered one of the best pure hit tools in the high school class, as he controls the zone well, has bat speed, and rarely misses, with the strength to hit for average or better power if he stops drifting out over his front side through contact. He’s going to end up somewhere other than shortstop despite solid instincts, most likely third base. Even if he never makes the adjustment at the plate, he should still hit for high averages and OBPs because his pitch selection is so good. There’s more here for player development to unlock, too.
Pratt is a plus defender at short, maybe a 70, and has tremendous bat-to-ball skills, with a strikeout rate under 15 percent this year. There were questions even in high school about his impact with the bat, and that might be rearing its head now, as he’s hitting for very little power in Double A and his BABIP has taken a hit as well. He did almost entirely skip High A, playing just 23 games there to end last year, which makes the high contact rate even more impressive. This is a big inflection point for Pratt, as he’s going to have to add some strength soon to be able to turn more of that contact into base hits, if not extra bases.
The Yankees’ High-A affiliate in Hudson Valley had the best rotation in the minors at one point this spring, with their top two picks from last year in Ben Hess and Bryce Cunningham; hard-throwing Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz; and Lagrange, who came back from as lost a 2024 as you can have. A back injury limited him to 29 2 /3 innings between the regular season and the AFL, and he walked 35 batters. I was dead sure he’d go to the pen after that year and the lack of much prior success, but he’s got a clear chance to stick as a starter. He’s sitting 97-101 with some life up and a ridiculously easy arm swing for that kind of velocity – it may help that he’s 6-7 and 250ish – with a plus slider as well as a cutter and changeup. The command still isn’t great, and he’s walked 15 percent of guys through seven appearances in Double A, but he’s athletic and it’s easy and it’s No. 2 starter stuff, just lacking the third pitch to be a potential ace. It’s pronounced la-GRAN-hay; if you say it “La Grange,” now, you might be mistaken.
I admit I’m a little concerned here. Schultz started out in Double A and was just OK, posting a 3.34 ERA but with mediocre peripherals – he walked 14.4 percent of batters he faced, struck out 23.2 percent, and posted a good but not elite groundball rate of 49 percent. His slider looks like it should be plus, but it doesn’t miss nearly enough bats, and in the end his arsenal is more a basket of 50s and 55s, without a real out pitch right now. He is 6-9 or 6-10, just 21, and has only 183 pro innings under his belt, so you can expect some development given more time and reps. I wouldn’t have promoted him to Triple A, however, where he’s now given up 15 runs in 11 innings and is on the IL with knee discomfort. He’s one step from the majors, but I think he needs a lot more time than that implies, whether it’s a full year at the current level or a slow ramp in the majors like they did with Chris Sale over a decade ago.
Sirota had a miserable draft year at Northeastern, losing a lot of weight from an illness before the college season, and slid from a rumored Top 10 destination to the third round, where the Reds nabbed him. The Dodgers picked him up in the Gavin Lux trade, did Dodgers things, and he’s better than ever, devastating Low A (for which he was too old) and continuing to lay waste to pitchers in High A, with a .316/.458/.556 line through 35 games there. He’s playing 55 or better defense in center field again while showing excellent pitch recognition and selectivity at the plate, with just one fewer walk than strikeouts at this writing. I’d like to see him carry this to Double A, since most of the best college hitters from the 2024 draft are already there or higher, but he at least looks like a strong regular.
Lewis was the Reds’ second-round pick last year, receiving a first-round bonus, then didn’t debut until this spring. Credit the Reds for making the unusual but smart choice to start a highly-touted and well-paid teenaged prospect in the complex, rather than forcing him to Low A in his first full season. Lewis has hit .335/.388/.531 through Tuesday’s games in the Arizona Complex League, playing above-average defense at shortstop while flashing plus power and speed. He hasn’t hit lefties at all in a tiny sample, and he’ll have to tighten up some of his swing decisions at the next level. He offers 20/20 upside at one of the most important positions on the field, with a later ETA than most of the other teenagers on this list.
Honorable mentions (alphabetically): Michael Arroyo, 2B, Seattle Mariners; Cooper Ingle, C, Cleveland Guardians; Gage Jump, LHP, Athletics; Joe Mack, C, Miami Marlins; Trey Yesavage, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays.
(Photo Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; Photos: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
