The Milwaukee Brewers have come a long way since March 31. That day, they woke up winless after their first four games, visions of torpedo bats keeping them up at night, and on the receiving end of the worst opening series ever in terms of run differential. Thirty-two runs in the hole, projections said they had a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs and were likely to be an under .500 team.
On Tuesday night, their 11-game win streak was snapped in a 1-0 loss to the Seattle Mariners, leaving them tied for MLB’s best record at 60-41 next to the Chicago Cubs. Still, what a difference a couple of months can make.
Writ large, a prototypical Brewers team excels at run prevention and struggles to slug. That stuff is still true of this team. Look at their ranks in key offensive stats and you’ll see an old-school spray the ball and run team — they put balls in play, yes, but not with authority.
Going into play Tuesday night, the Brewers’ lineup ranked:
- Second in steals
- Fourth in extra base taken percentage
- Eighth in strikeout rate
- Seventh in on-base percentage
- 22nd in slugging percentage
- 26th in hard-hit rate
- 30th in Barrel rate
Their patron saint might as well be second baseman Brice Turang, who has 18 steals, a mid-.300s OBP and will barely hit more than 10 homers this year. He’s a true Brewer, not only because of what he does at the plate and on the base paths, but also because he’s an excellent defender — no teammate of his has played 500 innings in the field and put up a negative defensive value, according to Statcast.
That’s part of why Milwaukee has been so good at preventing runs, but it’s not the whole reason. This staff has a top-five ERA and has some newly (and usually cheaply) acquired pitchers who are outperforming their career numbers. It’s remarkable when you take a look:
Serving pitchers of good brew
| Pitcher | ERA before Brewers | ERA with Brewers |
|---|---|---|
|
4.30 |
2.03 |
|
|
6.35 |
2.74 |
|
|
6.03 |
2.85 |
|
|
5.72 |
3.06 |
|
|
6.23 |
3.33 |
|
|
4.88 |
3.34 |
Pitching coach Chris Hook deserves a lot of credit, but this has to be seen as a sign of organizational good health — it takes good analysts, scouts and executives to pull this off at scale.
The Brewers do this all the time — in the last five years, they’ve beaten their projected runs allowed … four times. And the other year, they pretty much performed exactly as projected. They consistently have above-average stuff and also locate well — “throw good stuff in the zone,” as Tobias Myers said in the spring — and do so with pitchers who didn’t cost a lot to acquire.
Of course, regression could be coming for a staff like this, especially when you consider that over the last two weeks, they’ve produced an ERA under three as a team. You can say that of any team during a glorious streak. Any win streak takes a certain amount of luck to go with the talent to pull it off.
But did something happen during this streak that could be more important for the Brewers?
On the pitching side, this was a team that was scrambling for starters at one point. Ten pitchers took the ball in the first inning in March and April, and three of them are no longer with the organization, with another three in the minor leagues. The emergence of Jacob Misiorowski and the return of Brandon Woodruff (who hasn’t walked anyone since his return in early July) have been huge for the pitching staff. The streak was, to a large extent, the result of the staff returning to form.
On the hitting side, there might be a glimpse of something a little different, something that might help them overcome their difficulties in October so far. Teams that slug tend to win in the postseason, and while this team hasn’t slugged all that well on the season as a whole, July is a different story. Their slugging is up to 16th, their hard-hit rate is 14th and it’s instructive to see who is hitting the ball harder in particular.
Hitting the ball harder?
| Hitter | April Hard Hit | July Hard Hit |
|---|---|---|
|
45.5% |
66.7% |
|
|
51.2% |
52.0% |
|
|
38.8% |
51.8% |
|
|
33.3% |
51.4% |
|
|
46.1% |
49.0% |
|
|
47.6% |
47.1% |
|
|
47.9% |
44.4% |
|
|
32.6% |
29.7% |
|
|
47.4% |
27.8% |
|
|
28.1% |
26.8% |
|
|
32.4% |
26.5% |
The key names that stick out are William Contreras, Isaac Collins and Andrew Vaughn, for different reasons. Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich are the key power contributors on this team, and they’ve had some fluctuation, but they’ve also mostly produced. A healthy Rhys Hoskins will add pop, of course. But a lineup like this needs to field “surprising pop” across the lineup if it wants to slug enough to win in October, and that’s where Contreras, Collins and Vaughn could come in.
Only three players have lost more pop since last year than Contreras. He’s been playing with a fractured finger that sounds pretty painful, but this could be a good sign. While the top-line results haven’t shown him coming out of the slump just yet, this improvement in hard hit rate shows that he could still return to being the 20-homer hitter he’s been the last three seasons.
Collins is 28 years old and may not have a ton of ceiling left — he also showed little power at different stops in the minors — but he’s also shown clear progression in his career. He hit fewer ground balls and hit the ball harder once he had an offseason with the Brewers between 2023 and 2024. Players with his current hard hit and barrel rates last year hit an average of 15 homers — that’s not nothing!
Vaughn may be a role player, stepping in due to injuries, but he’s always hit the ball hard — often on the ground and to the opposite field, where they haven’t turned into slugging. With the Brewers, he’s moved a couple inches closer to the plate and is getting the ball out in front just a bit more. If they can unlock the link between his good exit velos and better in-game power, he could improve the bottom of this lineup.
The key to Brewers baseball has always been run prevention, achieved often through the intersection of good defense, a great bullpen and strong pitching coaching. If Milwaukee is going to turn this streak into postseason success, it’ll still depend on Freddy Peralta, the resurgent Woodruff, the returning Nestor Cortes and, of course, the wunderkind Misiorowski, along with stud relievers Trevor Megill and Abner Uribe out of the pen. The infield will pick it, and the outfield will snag it.
But in October, getting over the hump may require some thump. Chourio and Yelich need some help, and maybe somewhere between Collins, Vaughn, and — most likely, perhaps — Contreras, the hard hits that fueled this good run will presage the power production that separates the title contenders from the playoff hopefuls.
(Top photo of Joey Ortiz: Alika Jenner / Getty Images)
