Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Should you back surging Cardinals starter?

There’s a modest nine-game MLB slate on tap Thursday, with only three contests starting at 7 p.m. or later. From a betting perspective, value positions can often be difficult to pinpoint amid such a modest card, but the SportsLine Projection Model has you covered.

The model has identified the top pitcher strikeout proposition bets in the MLB betting market, and has identified strong plays for all three late games, which include the Boston Red Sox visiting the New York Yankees (7: 15 p.m.), the Houston Astros visiting the Baltimore Orioles (7:15 p.m.) and the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the St. Louis Cardinals (7:35 p.m.).

Cardinals starter Sonny Gray (11-6, 4.30 ERA) is the marquee strikeout maven on the late-game slate, with his 155 strikeouts ranking No. 15 in all of MLB and the most of any starter on the none-game Thursday MLB card.

Top sportsbooks have set Grays over/under strikeout total at 5.5, but is the Over an automatic play? See below to find this answer, along with the model’s other top strikeout props for Thursday. The model’s plays are recommended when a player prop registers at least 4 stars on the model’s 5-star rating scale. 

 Here are the model’s top strikeout prop plays for Thursday, August 21:

Luis Gil Under 5.5 strikeouts vs. Red Sox (7:15 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.stars
Model projection: 5. strikeouts

The right-hander will make just his fourth start of the season but made 29 starts for the Yankees last year. The model incorporates this extensive sample size into Thursday’s projections and doesn’t see Gil getting a lot of whiffs from the Boston lineup. In Gil’s last eight starts in which the Yankees are favored, his strikeout prop has gone under and he has averaged just 3.9 Ks in those outings.

Jason Alexander Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Orioles (7:15 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection:  strikeouts

The Astros right-hander has notched six strikeouts in two of his past three starts, including six across a six-inning outing in a 5-4 win over the Orioles in his last outing. He has hit his prop over in three of his past five games while averaging 4.8 strikeouts per performance. The model expects Alexander to maintain this pace and has a strong play on his over Thursday. 

Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts vs. Rays (7:35 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4 stars
Model projection: 6.3 strikeouts

The model sees the veteran right-hander keeping up his torrid recent strikeout pace. Gray has record 22 strikeouts across his past three starts, with at least seven in each outing. The model notes that Gray has hit the over in six of his past 10 outings while maintaining an average of 6.5 strikeouts per outing, and projects Gray to hit that mark again Thursday against the Rays.