Which MLB contenders have the toughest road to the playoffs? Breaking down the schedules pt. 2

Riley Greene and Tyler Holton taught us a lesson.

At this time last year, the Detroit Tigers had only a 7.4 percent chance of making the playoffs. They not only made it, but they also advanced to the American League Division Series.

So, although the previous edition of our recurring schedule-watch feature was limited to teams with playoff odds exceeding 10 percent, we’re heading into the last month of the regular season more open-minded to the long shots.

Can Brady Singer pitch the Cincinnati Reds into contention? Could Wyatt Langford spark a Texas Rangers winning streak? Could the shorthanded Cleveland Guardians take a page from the Tigers’ playbook and ride José Ramírez and relievers many have never heard of to a miraculous run?

Let’s break down each contender’s upcoming schedule, focusing this time on the first two weeks of September. We selected a key series for each team and included their FanGraphs’ playoff odds and strength of schedule figures. We listed all 16 teams with winning records. We won’t be so generous when we return Sept. 15 for one last schedule-watching session.

Teams are listed in order of playoff odds. Winning percentages are updated through Saturday.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Detroit Tigers

Record: 80-58
Playoff odds: 99.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .496

Key series: Sept. 9-11 at Yankees

The Tigers still have breathing room, though it narrowed last week when they lost five of six to the Athletics and Royals before Tarik Skubal shoved Sunday. Both New York teams are in the playoff picture and will be dangerous down the stretch. The Tigers are trying to secure the top seed in the American League, but it’s the Yankees who have the league’s best run differential. The Yankees could be the last winning team the Tigers play until they travel to Boston the last weekend of the season.

Toronto Blue Jays

Record: 79-58
Playoff odds: 99.8 percent
Strength of schedule: .507

Key series: Sept. 5-7 at Yankees, Sept. 9-11 vs. Astros

Should the Blue Jays worry more about the teams chasing them in the division (one of which could take their first-round bye) or the AL West teams chasing them in the overall standings (one of which could take their first-round bye)? Lose ground on either front and the Blue Jays would be forced into a wild-card series, which makes these back-to-back series key to maintaining their playoff advantage.

New York Yankees

Record: 76-61
Playoff odds: 98.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .495

Key series: Sept. 2-4 at Astros

The road ahead for the Yankees is either a nightmare or an opportunity, a chance to fall apart or to climb back into the division race and have a shot at a first-round bye in the playoffs. Which series is the most important? The next one, and then the one after that, and so on. The Yankees spent the past week sweeping the Nationals and winning three of four against the White Sox. These next two weeks will be … let’s say … a bit more challenging.

Boston Red Sox

Record: 76-62
Playoff odds: 93.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .505

Key series: Sept. 12-14 vs. Yankees

After recently taking three of four in the Bronx, the Red Sox have another shot to take down their rival — while further securing a playoff spot — when the Yankees come to Boston. It’s a high-profile set sandwiched between two series against the Athletics with off days on either side. The Red Sox will be rested and ready. They finish the season with a couple of tough series against the Blue Jays and Tigers, but until then, their schedule is pretty soft, other than the Yankees series.

Houston Astros

Record: 75-62
Playoff odds: 88.4 percent
Strength of schedule: .510

Key series: Sept. 9-11 at Blue Jays

That Rangers series is an important one, but the Mariners are a far greater threat in the NL West. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, had been a problem for just about everyone until they went 6-7 the past two weeks. The Astros swept the Jays earlier this season, but that was in April — before the Blue Jays got on a midseason roll — and that series was in Houston. Now the Astros have to go to Toronto in the middle of a three-city trip. That’s not an easy assignment for a team fighting for a division title.

Seattle Mariners

Record: 73-64
Playoff odds: 87 percent
Strength of schedule: .494

Key series: Sept. 11-14 vs. Angels

On paper, this is the soft spot in the schedule before the real challenge comes in the last two weeks of the regular season: Royals, Astros, Rockies, Dodgers. These next four opponents are all below .500, which suggests a chance for the Mariners, currently trailing the Astros by two games, to take control of the AL West. That four-game set at home against the Angels could be especially impactful. The Mariners are 5-4 against the Angels so far this season.

Texas Rangers

Record: 71-67
Playoff odds: 14.2 percent
Strength of schedule: .507

Key series: Sept. 5-7 vs. Astros

The Rangers are heating up at the right time, as they won five consecutive games to end August, but they’re entering the final month as true long shots to make the playoffs. Their next two weeks are no cakewalk. They have six games left against the Astros, beginning with a three-game set at home this weekend. That’s a prime opportunity to make up ground against a team they’re chasing in the AL West. However, they have no games left against the Mariners, who won 10 of 13 against the Rangers this season.

Kansas City Royals

Record: 70-67
Playoff odds: 10.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .499

Key series: Sept. 8-11 at Guardians

The AL Central has been a topsy-turvy division all year, with the Twins, Guardians and Royals taking turns in the preliminary playoff picture. Here at the end of the season, the Royals are becoming relevant. However, they just lost an important series to the Tigers, and so far are only 5-5 against the Twins and 4-5 against the Guardians. They’re surely going to have to do better than that in the final month if they want to grab a wild-card spot and have a real shot at October baseball.

Cleveland Guardians

Record: 68-67
Playoff odds: 5.2 percent
Strength of schedule: .493

Key series: Sept. 4-7 at Royals

The Guardians had a day off on Thursday, but they won’t have another day off for two weeks. It’s a late-summer grind, which might be ideal for a team trying to play its way to a miracle. More games mean more opportunities to win, and the Guardians need to win a lot this month. They return home next week for a big four-game set against the Royals, a team they’ll need to pass to even be next in line for a playoff spot. An improbable run has to start somewhere. Might as well start there.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Milwaukee Brewers

Record: 85-53
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .496

Key series: Sept. 1, 3-4 vs. Phillies

The immediate importance of this series to the best-record-in-baseball Brewers is to add cushion in their effort to secure a wild-card bye. It’ll also provide a few key data points as the Brewers prepare for a postseason in which they have a good shot of seeing these same Phillies on a grander stage. Last season, the Phillies got the bye over the Brewers, and Milwaukee never made it past the wild-card round to face Philadelphia again. The Brewers have lost in the wild card in four of their past five playoff trips. They’d prefer free passage to the NLDS this time, please.

Philadelphia Phillies

Record: 79-58
Playoff odds: 100 percent
Strength of schedule: .508

Key series: Sept. 8-11 vs. Mets

Considering how the Mets handled the Phillies last week, we’ll go with that rematch rather than circling the Brewers series just starting in Milwaukee. Philadelphia is now 2-7 against the Mets this season, which has done absolutely nothing to help the sting from last year’s NLDS result. The Mets have dominated at home this season, though, and being on the road has not suited them. A few days in the raucous environment of Citizens Bank Park will be a challenge. Perhaps the Phillies can punch back.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Record: 78-59
Playoff odds: 99.9 percent
Strength of schedule: .494

Key series: Sept. 12-14 vs. Giants

The Phillies and Mariners loom in the second half of September, but the first half is a get-right opportunity for any Dodger feeling a little off lately. After Pittsburgh, where, yes, they will face Paul Skenes in the series finale, Los Angeles has two more last-place teams waiting, the Orioles and Rockies. The Giants always play the Dodgers tough, though, and they’ll meet for two series — seven games in 10 days — this month.

Chicago Cubs

Record: 78-59
Playoff odds: 99.7 percent
Strength of schedule: .497

Key series: Sept. 1-3, 8-10 vs. Braves

The way the standings currently shake out, the Braves look like a pushover. They’re down there with the Marlins and Pirates in the league ledger. But, even coming off a bad weekend series against the Phillies, Atlanta has been sneaky good for most of the past month. After bottoming out at 45-62 ahead of the July 31 trade deadline, the Braves have been above .500 since then. The Cubs, who last week were swept by the Giants and then won a series against the Rockies, haven’t faced the Braves since May 2024. A lot has changed since then!

San Diego Padres

Record: 76-61
Playoff odds: 99.3 percent
Strength of schedule: .462

Key series: Sept. 5-7, 11-14 vs. Rockies

Oh, you thought we’d pick the only series against another theoretical wild-card candidate? Never underestimate our astonishment at how a big-league ballclub could lose 100 games before it wins 40, which the Rockies still could do. A home-and-home with last-place Colorado is just what the doctor ordered for the Padres as they fight for first place in the NL West. The Dodgers have one of baseball’s easiest schedules in September; the Padres, however, have the easiest — by a country mile.

New York Mets

Record: 73-64
Playoff odds: 93.1 percent
Strength of schedule: .499

Key series: Sept. 5-7 at Reds

The Mets appeared to have found their footing last week, sweeping the Phillies. But losing three of four to the Marlins over the weekend was an awful way to set up for this next stretch — a 10-game trip to Detroit, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. The Mets currently hold a four-game lead over the Reds for the third NL wild-card spot. The Reds won their only other meeting this season, taking two of three in July. The Mets hope to handle business this time, then round out the road swing with another strong showing against the Phillies.

Cincinnati Reds

Record: 69-68
Playoff odds: 4 percent
Strength of schedule: .518

Key series: Sept. 5-7 vs. Mets

These series are all pretty darned important for a team really going through it right now and desperately trying to claw into the playoff picture. But the Mets are the Reds’ most direct competitor for the final wild-card position in the NL, so we’ll circle that three-game set in Queens. Perhaps you noticed the NL playoff odds falling off a cliff: It’s six teams with odds over 93 percent, then the Reds (4 percent), Giants (2 percent) and Diamondbacks (1.1 percent). Yeah, it’s now or never for the Reds.

(Top photo: Kent J. Edwards / Getty Images)