After a great first week of NFL football, I’ll be breaking down some team performance trends going into Week 2 to help prepare for your fantasy matchups. This article will heavily reference two tables, which can be found after the analysis in the article; the first shows the average offensive and defensive EPA (expected points added) per play for each team, and the second shows the average amount of fantasy points allowed by every defense to each individual position this season.
Let’s jump into our analysis of Week 1.
Offensive Takeaways
The Ravens and Bills both came out of the gate strong. After a thrilling Sunday night football matchup, both teams ended with over 0.2 EPA/play offensively. Both squads have divisional matchups in Week 2, against the Browns and Jets, respectively. While the Browns had a positive EPA/play defensively, the Jets put up -0.21 EPA/play in Week 1, leaving room for a strong Buffalo performance coming up.
Despite the Jaguars’ disappointing fantasy numbers, their efficiency on offense wasn’t terrible. While Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. didn’t meet expectations in Week 1, the offense put up a 0.09 EPA/play. In Week 2, they face a Bengals squad that allowed 2.58 points per touch to WRs, half a point higher than the Panthers in Week 1. Look for a Brian Thomas bounce-back game.
Similarly, the Chiefs, despite an underwhelming Week 1 performance, put up strong efficiency numbers at 0.13 EPA/play. With Xavier Worthy‘s status uncertain moving forward, this should open up doors for Hollywood Brown, Travis Kelce, and Isaiah Pacheco to see more touches. They play Philly in Week 2, who locked down their air defense in Week 1, allowing just 1.98 points per touch to receivers, had gaps in the run game, giving up 1.11 points per touch to RBs, the third most in the league.
Indianapolis stood out as a top offense of the week, putting up 0.25 EPA/play. However, they face a stout Denver defense in Week 2, which had a 0.22 EPA/play defensively. Look for a potential regression from the Colts.
The Dolphins couldn’t have had a worse start to the season, laying up a -0.16 EPA/play on offense. With Tyreek Hill trade rumors heating up as well as off-the-field issues, his status is somewhat uncertain in Miami. They face a New England defense that didn’t perform great against the Raiders in Week 1, so it is up in the air what to expect in this matchup.
The Bears-Vikings game gave us great insight for both NFC North offenses. The Bears initially looked unstoppable, with Caleb Williams looking like a QB ready to set the league on fire; however, they finished the game with a -0.11 EPA/play, leaving questions about this offense’s ability to produce yet again. They face Detroit in Week 2, so be wary of your Bears’ starters. The Vikings followed the opposite track, starting poorly and finishing on fire. They finished with a negative EPA offensively, but JJ McCarthy‘s two passing TDs and rushing TD were certainly enough to get NFL fans around the league excited about this offense. They face the Falcons in Week 2, who allowed over 3 points per touch to WRs in Week 1. Look for a huge performance out of McCarthy and Jefferson in Week 2.
Defensive Takeaways
The Jets allowed over 4 points per touch to WRs in Week 1. They face Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 2, so keep a lookout for monster games from Allen, Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and the likes.
The Chargers allowed over 4.5 points per touch to TEs in Week 1. While Brock Bowers may not be able to suit up, Michael Mayer could still be a strong emergency option at TE.
The Colts allowed the highest points per touch to RBs in Week 1. Look for a better performance out of RJ Harvey and JK Dobbins in Week 2, as they face a more favorable run defense.
The Broncos, 49ers, and Vikings all looked incredible on defense, allowing very low numbers for each position. Look for offenses to struggle against them in Week 2 again.
Please find the tables outlining all the stats mentioned below.
