It’s trade season!
Dec. 15 marks the point in the NBA calendar at which most contracts signed in the offseason become eligible to be included in trades. Now, rosters can really be altered, and we start seeing just how aggressive teams want to be leading up to the Feb. 5 trade deadline. It’s unlikely every team makes a move before the deadline, but we’re going to hear a ton of rumors — even some unrelated to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
All that said, it’s a perfect time to break up trade season into tiers of teams that will likely have different motivations for completing (or not completing) any deals. Teams in each tier are ordered from most to least interesting, according to yours truly.
Message to aggregators: This is not reporting unless I specifically mention it for teams and their interests. I’ll say something along the lines of “according to league sources” or “according to people I’ve talked to around the league.” This is how I am viewing the landscape and using semi-educated guesses for how things may play out. Or what I think should happen. Thank you for your consideration!
Tier 1: Buyers to compete
Detroit Pistons
Maybe the Pistons don’t have to be aggressive at the deadline, but they are in a great position to build on what they’ve done and separate themselves from the rest of the Eastern Conference. Some smoke-and-mirrors is going on with their early schedule. They did mostly beat up on weak competition. But Detroit is still really good and in a position to prove it against the other teams. It just needs some scoring help to take some of the wear-and-tear off Cade Cunningham. Maybe the Pistons get aggressive and pair someone like Lauri Markkanen with Jalen Duren. They can dangle picks and someone like Jaden Ivey if they want to. Detroit should be aggressive and really go for the East.
New York Knicks
This mostly centers around the idea of going after Giannis Antetokounmpo if he ends up being on the market. You can look at this Knicks team and the complexities of trading for Giannis and think that they don’t need him. And they might not. However, the point of what Leon Rose and company built was to get a superstar like Giannis, should he become available. If the Knicks don’t do that, there is an element of failure to their campaign, which sounds ridiculous when you acknowledge this team is good enough to win the East outright. The pairing of Giannis and Jalen Brunson wouldn’t be perfect, either. At the same time, the Knicks could use some punch if they want to think about the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Or maybe they just need one more player on their bench?
Milwaukee Bucks
This one is pretty simple. The Bucks are in the game to improve the roster unless Giannis decides he wants out. Then it changes everything. The problem is the Bucks don’t have control of their draft picks through 2030, and the rest of the roster isn’t that good to entice people with trades. Ryan Rollins might get you something, but they likely want to keep him. Maybe there is buyer’s remorse on Myles Turner and they could flip him to someone for some depth and help? But then they’d have a hole at center.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have been better this season without Trae Young. Jalen Johnson has emerged as their best player in his absence, and his dynamic play makes you wonder just how high he can ascend. Young and the team have not come to an extension yet (he’ll be a free agent in the summer), and it sounds like they won’t. They also have the best trade asset in the NBA with New Orleans’ 2026 unprotected first-round pick. It wouldn’t be shocking if Young was on the move. There were rumors about trying to get him to San Antonio to join Victor Wembanyama before the Fox deal last season. Maybe his play isn’t good enough to galvanize more Young discussions on the trade market, but what if he’s the big name that gets dealt? It could be Atlanta buying to compete by removing their franchise player.
San Antonio Spurs
This is probably just their slot if they decide to get aggressive in going after Giannis. They have so much young talent to move, and that talent is good enough to help a team right away. They also have a Minnesota 2030 pick to dangle out there. The Spurs rarely make in-season trades to disrupt things, but that changed with De’Aaron Fox last season. The team is ahead of schedule and could put pressure on the rest of the West’s elite.
Toronto Raptors
The criticism surrounding the expensive nature of this Raptors roster this past summer seems to be quieting down with their solid start. The pieces are working, and Darko Rajaković is coaching them really well. At the same time, the Raptors have to see a very real ceiling with this roster. Is that ceiling the conference finals in an East this weak and open? And how long does that conference weakness last? Maybe the Raptors look at this opportunity to be very aggressive and add another big player alongside Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram. It’s worth kicking the tires to make sure people can’t revert to that earlier criticism within a few months.
Miami Heat
Much like the Knicks, a lot of this has to do with the possibility of Miami going after Giannis. Before he signed the supermax extension in 2020, there was a lot of chatter about the Heat being aggressive in trying to acquire him. Obviously, that never happened. But the Heat are big whale hunters by trade, and they have been striking out. They also haven’t truly gone full pursuit to get guys such as Kevin Durant, Damian Lillard or even Bradley Beal. Some of that might have been hoping for someone like Giannis to become available. They can dangle either Kel’el Ware or Bam Adebayo out there to try to get it done if need be. But ultimately, it wouldn’t hurt to get a little bit more shooting on the perimeter to boost the number of attempts for this fast-paced offense.
New Orleans Pelicans
It’s Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver running things. Anything is possible. They passed on better trade offers to move up to grab Derik Queen in the draft just so they could send their unprotected pick to Atlanta. We haven’t felt this alive with a bad team making moves since … well … Joe Dumars was near the end of his run in Detroit. And they don’t want to be this bad. Remember, they were trying to win going into this season.
Portland Trail Blazers
Maybe the Blazers don’t make a huge swing in the trade market, but they are in a position to make the Play-In, even in the jam-packed West. They need to acquire some outside shooting. This is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league, second to last in percentage (33.4). Some of that could improve with a consistently healthy roster.
Chicago Bulls
Maybe this is just wishful thinking on my part. I’d love the Bulls to pick a direction: Either go all-in with being good or all-in with playing the lottery to get a future star. Instead, they insist on being stuck in the middle and losing to the Heat in the Play-In Tournament. From what it looks like, the Bulls are not going to go the tanking direction, so that means they’ll need to be aggressive in trying to improve the roster. They need a real scorer or a really good defender. Or both, preferably. They should be buying to make sure they even make the Play-In.
Tier 2: Sellers for lottery night
Dallas Mavericks
Dereck Lively II is out for the season, but I don’t think that will stop them from shopping guys such as Daniel Gafford or even Anthony Davis. Publicly, they can claim to be about winning, but this is a bad team that needs to build around Cooper Flagg. They also have their first-round pick before it likely goes to Charlotte in 2027. Expect the Mavs to look to improve those lottery odds while also getting more assets and flexibility.
Utah Jazz
The Jazz are a little more competitive than they probably should be. That’s fine for now, but eventually this could become a problem on lottery night. The Jazz tried to tank last year, and it did not work out for them in getting a top-three pick. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try again. If they really want to acquire more assets in addition to improving their lottery odds, the Jazz could move Markkanen. Remember, the Jazz’s pick is top-eight protected, or it goes to OKC. Because of course it does.
Sacramento Kings
This season has been a disaster for their investment in the roster. Domantas Sabonis is hurt, and the Kings weren’t all that good in the limited time he did play. DeMar DeRozan could get them a decent return, and Dennis Schröder being on the move feels like a deadline staple. There’s been interest in Malik Monk around the league since the summer, and I’d imagine the Kings wouldn’t mind getting away from the rest of Zach LaVine’s money. It’s a fire sale for the Kings, but we don’t know if anybody is truly interested. They really need a young star on draft night to get fans excited.
Brooklyn Nets
It wouldn’t shock me if we see Nic Claxton back in trade rumors. The Nets don’t necessarily have to worry too much about lottery odds. Things should correct themselves naturally with battles for the bottom of the cellar. But New Orleans and Indiana are worse than people thought they’d be. That has to have Brooklyn sweat it out a little. Terance Mann is also a veteran wing who could draw some interest.
Tier 3: Cutting apron strings
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are on a roll, but I don’t think they’re married to this roster makeup. They gutted the team in a gap year to get out of the second-apron payroll threshold and the restrictions that come with it. Now they’re still about $4 million into the first apron, and moving someone like Anfernee Simons for a role player or two at a much cheaper cost could help them get more financially responsible. Then they can assess where Jayson Tatum is in his Achilles injury recovery, not have any roster restrictions this summer and figure out how to build back up.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Maybe the Cavs will believe in what they have and stand pat at the deadline, but this was a 64-win team that had to make a tough decision to let Ty Jerome and Isaac Okoro go while bringing in Lonzo Ball because of the second-apron restrictions. Now they’re just 15-12 to start this season and $22 million into the second apron. That $22 million is costing them over $100 million in luxury tax. Maybe they can get rid of someone to ease that bill.
Golden State Warriors
Most likely, the Warriors stand where they are. They are counting pennies at this point because they’re so close to the second apron. They’re within $264,000 of that threshold, where they are hard-capped. The Warriors also have another issue with the playing time of Jonathan Kuminga, whom they re-signed in the offseason. They’ll have a trade market for him if they want to. Sacramento and Phoenix were interested in the summer. Can they bring in someone while also cutting a little money off the top?
LA Clippers
Normally, I would think the Clippers are going to throw money at the problem to try to get better because Steve Ballmer wants them to be aggressive. But letting Paul George walk to Philly showed their fiscal responsibility in the apron era. The Clippers are hard-capped at the first apron and just $1.2 million currently under it, so there isn’t much they can do. One way or another, Chris Paul will be gone. But the Clippers might see how bad this season is and try to swap out some players for cheaper options, just to have better flexibility. They won’t be too severe with it because the Thunder control their first-round pick next summer.
Tier 4: Gaining assets
Phoenix Suns
I don’t think the Suns will be buyers to really change their team into being more competitive than it is now. And they are far better than anybody thought they’d be. However, they have some role players they can move while still maintaining their quality on the court. And those guys, like Royce O’Neale or even Grayson Allen, could net them some flexibility or assets. Maybe the Suns stand pat and re-evaluate in the summer.
Indiana Pacers
I would expect the Pacers to explore getting a big man who can help them out next season. We know Tyrese Haliburton likely isn’t coming back until then, and this team probably won’t be competitive most of this season. That doesn’t mean the Pacers won’t plan ahead and try to find a full-time Myles Turner replacement. They have some roster flexibility to make a deal, and this organization has nailed most of its moves over the last few years.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are the most difficult team to get a handle on. Daryl Morey is typically very aggressive at most deadlines, whether that’s adding to the current roster or sneakily adding assets (as he did with Quentin Grimes last season). With the health of Joel Embiid and Paul George so unreliable, I wouldn’t expect them to make a big swing. But I’d expect Morey to look for another high-value role player or sneak into acquiring a draft pick. It’s what he does.
Memphis Grizzlies
Maybe this is a team that is more likely to stand pat. I don’t think any of the Ja Morant drama is actually going to lead to them moving the former All-Star point guard. That seems to have subsided, or maybe it was overblown from the start. But the Grizzlies do seem pretty intent on building for the present and the future. I could see them trying to acquire more assets to what they’ve stockpiled with players and picks.
Washington Wizards
Over the last year or so, the Wizards have done a brilliant job of properly becoming a rebuilding team. They’re not just nailing the draft pick selections; they started prioritizing cap flexibility and draft-asset acquisitions. Now they’re going to have a lot of roster and cap malleability starting this summer, but it wouldn’t shock me to see them get involved with trades at the deadline as a third or fourth team. In return, they take on a contract that needs jettisoning, and it comes with some kind of pick.
Charlotte Hornets
This team is not building something that definitely looks like a future success. The Hornets are still stuck in the same position they’ve been in for a couple of years. We saw them get involved in moves last deadline to help gain role players and picks, and I expect we keep seeing that. They have to eventually move on from this iteration, and having the picks and assets to do that is paramount. The Hornets need a massive overhaul, but maybe tinkering by acquiring assets is the first step toward doing that.
Tier 5: Standing pat
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota would love to add another offensive weapon who can initiate, but the Wolves are only about $3.5 million away from the second apron. Making a move is not easy, and they’ll likely do any revamping or tinkering this summer. They have a Rudy Gobert decision to make at some point (he has a $38 million player option in 2027-28), but that is unlikely to happen at the deadline.
Los Angeles Lakers
Everything about the Lakers since trading for Luka Dončić has been about prioritizing their flexibility in the summer of 2026. LeBron James has a no-trade clause, so he’s probably not going anywhere.
Orlando Magic
They gave up their draft assets to acquire Desmond Bane, and now they have to wait for Franz Wagner to get healthy. Maybe they could move a role player to try to upgrade some offense, but this team feels locked in.
Houston Rockets
Because of the Fred VanVleet injury and good play from Aaron Holiday and Reed Sheppard in his stead, Houston doesn’t really need to make any moves. Plus, the Rockets are hard-capped at the first apron, which is $1.2 million away. Just let Kevin Durant and this top-ranked offense go to work and see how it looks in the playoffs.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets made their big moves this summer, and they’re more likely to just hope this team is healthy by the postseason. They already have a championship roster, and a worse version pushed OKC to seven games in May.
Oklahoma City Thunder
What could they possibly improve? They’re so good that some people believe it wouldn’t make sense to get involved in potential Giannis trade talks. And they have the most assets and players to trade without hurting their current makeup.