With wins becoming such an unstable statistic to measure a pitcher’s success, many fantasy baseball leagues have shifted toward quality starts. While run support is largely out of a pitcher’s control, allowing three or fewer runs over six innings usually is not. In today’s piece, we’ll focus on some lesser-obvious targets whose value rises in quality starts leagues.
Beyond the few clear standouts like Tarik Skubal, Logan Webb, Garrett Crochet, Bryan Woo and Cristopher Sanchez, several studs are flying under the radar. The following five arms fit the bill and are currently being drafted much later than they should be, according to average draft position (ADP) data.
Fantasy Baseball Quality Starts League Primer
Here are five standout value picks you should target in quality starts leagues.
Nick Pivetta (SP – SD)
Nick Pivetta pitched like an ace for the Padres last season, yet he’s still lingering in the early 100s in some drafts. While he won’t last that long in more competitive leagues, he deserves to be taken much earlier. Especially by managers targeting quality starts.
Pivetta posted a 2.87 ERA and a 0.985 WHIP in his first season wearing Friar brown. He also struck out 190 batters and won 13 games, finishing sixth in Cy Young voting. More importantly for fantasy purposes, the 6-foot-5, 32-year-old ranked 10th in the Majors with 19 quality starts across 31 appearances.
Pivetta benefited from a low .235 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), but it wasn’t just dumb luck that led to such exemplary numbers. The nine-year veteran posted career lows in hard-hit rate (29.3%) and home runs per nine innings (1.09). Pivetta was able to reach those accomplishments while continuing to limit walks (6.9% walk rate) and collecting strikeouts (26.4% strikeout rate).
Getting out of the American League East seems to have done wonders for the former junior college standout. He’s an excellent value at his current fantasy baseball ADP.
Luis Castillo (SP – SEA)
Some of the shine has come off Luis Castillo in recent years, but in quality starts leagues, he’s still worth taking earlier than his ADP. The 33-year-old workhorse finished with 18 quality starts last season, matching his total from each of the previous two years. Since 2019, Castillo has never recorded fewer than 17 quality starts. His 89 quality starts over the past five seasons are tied for fourth-most in all of baseball, and he also ranks sixth in both innings pitched and games started over that span.
While his ERA did take a slight hit last year, and his velo has slowly decreased over the years (he still throws 95), Castillo was able to reduce his walks to a career low (6.2% walk rate) and still produced ample strikeouts (162) and a low WHIP (1.18). He’ll very likely get you somewhere in the neighborhood of a 3.50 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 165 strikeouts and 18 quality starts. That type of production is worth drafting near round 13, but he’s a steal if you can wait until round 14.
MacKenzie Gore (SP – TEX)
Few were better than MacKenzie Gore in the first half of last season. With 12 quality starts to his credit before the All-Star break, Gore placed eighth in the National League and 13th in all of baseball. He also nearly paced the National League in strikeouts, ranking third overall (Logan Webb beat him by one, Zack Wheeler was first).
Unfortunately, after sustaining a shoulder injury in August, Gore’s second-half numbers tanked. He never fully recovered. Just as he was starting to feel better, the former Nationals ace suffered an ankle injury that ended his season.
Now fully healthy and on the Texas Rangers, Gore should be back near the top of his game. He gets a slight uptick in ballpark factor and moves into a division that doesn’t score as many runs. The Rangers’ bullpen was among the worst in baseball last season, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the new staff allow him to pitch deeper into games.
While the bullpen may cost him a few wins, it won’t take away his quality starts. Coming off a strong 10.43 K/9 and with his ceiling so high, Gore warrants going well ahead of his 150 ADP. Consensus rankings have him going 31 picks earlier, and I might even move him up a round or two where quality starts matter.
Merrill Kelly (SP – ARI)
Merrill Kelly recorded 18 quality starts last season, with 13 of them coming as a member of the Diamondbacks. Now back in Arizona after being dealt to Texas at the deadline, the veteran right-hander is expected to anchor the rotation barring any additional signings. Kelly will be asked to soak up innings for a young staff while helping protect a suspect bullpen.
The Houston native finished the season with a 3.95 ERA, but that number drops to a much more appealing 3.22 during his time in Arizona. His WHIP once again stayed below 1.20 (1.11 for the season and 1.06 with the Diamondbacks), marking the fifth straight year he’s cleared that threshold. Kelly also provides a respectable strikeout total, fanning 167 batters last season.
The Diamondbacks ace has only spent significant time on the injured list (IL) once over the past four seasons and remains a reliable workhorse. His deep arsenal, combined with Arizona’s need for him to log innings, should lead to another near-20 quality starts season. Kelly is well worth targeting in the late 17th or 18th round of quality starts leagues.
Lucas Giolito (SP – FA)
Lucas Giolito is my sleeper of the group. Still without a team as February approaches, the former All-Star is being ignored almost everywhere, lasting well beyond 300th overall. For those in quality starts leagues, however, he deserves a much closer look.
Giolito will eventually get signed, and when he does, his ADP should climb drastically. He won’t pass the 200 mark or likely even 250, but with 14 quality starts under his belt in just four months of work, Giolito is worth a late-round pick. Not only did the former Red Sock pitch well in the American League East, but he did it after not pitching for nearly a year and a half.
Still just 31 years old, the 6-foot-6 righty recorded a robust 3.41 ERA to go along with 121 strikeouts over 26 starts. While you may have to suffer through a few clunkers, wherever Giolito lands, he’ll likely be counted on to complete at least six innings every time out. If you discount September of last season (Boston protected his arm), Giolito pitched a full six innings in 14 of his 22 starts. He was also notably better on the road, posting a fine 3.18 ERA, with a .214 opponent batting average and a .639 OPS.
If he’s able to stay relatively healthy, I see a 20th-round bargain at a 30th-round price tag.
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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.