It’s not a matter of if. It’s a matter of when. And how much.
The NFL is closing in on a new wave of TV deals. The league has the ability to pull the plug early on the current contracts. With the exception of ESPN’s arrangement (which runs through 2030), all current relationships can be ended after 2029.
And they will be, unless they’re extended at a sizable increase to the current commitment.
John Ourand of Puck has taken a close look at what the new deals may entail. It was obvious in May 2024, once the early numbers emerged as to the recent NBA deals, that the NFL would want more. A lot more.
As Ourand explains, the current NBA “cost per viewer hour” triples the NFL’s existing figure. That could lead to a possible doubling of the current $10 billion per year haul the NFL gets solely from its broadcast rights. The teams could go from getting $312.5 million each to $625 million each.
The current thinking is that the league will find a way to carve up the current slate of 272 regular-season games and 13 postseason games and give every interested network and streamer a seat at the table — if they will pay for the meal.
One possibility, as Ourand explains it, is that streamers like Netflix and YouTube would get five-game packages. Ourand also suggests that Amazon may try to flip its current Thursday night footprint for the Sunday night package NBC acquired in 2006.
Then there’s the looming possibility that the NFL will mobilize quickly, after the NFL Players Association has its new executive director, to expand the regular season to 18 games as soon as 2027. That would add another 16 regular-season games to the mix, pushing the total available annual games that count to 301.
However it goes, the price will keep going up. And the networks and streamers will pay it. In a world of fractured on-demand viewership, one property lures many millions to watch the same thing at the same time. There’s tremendous value in that, and the NFL will benefit from it.