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    Route Metrics: Comparing 2026 WR Prospect Route Trees to NFL Players

    By 21 Mins Read
    Route Metrics: Comparing 2026 WR Prospect Route Trees to NFL Players

    Player comps… love ’em? Hate ’em?

    Depending on the day of the week, I might run to a different corner of the argument.

    Maybe you are searching for a quick answer and this introduction pisses you off: “Cut to the chase Kyle!” I bring up that tension because making a one-to-one connection to a player in the NFL is not a perfect task. We can paint with a broad brush stroke here knowing college route trees are often limited and their offenses feature many players who will be selling insurance or working at their local high school in a few short months. That is the cold hard reality of college sports.

    On the most recent Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast, Betz and I talked through the top-5 WR prospects giving an in-depth look into our process for mapping out these future NFL-ers.

    The goal of this article is to discuss route trees, give us a framework for analyzing which routes matter more in terms of production and use in the NFL, and then compare the 2026 WR Class to WRs in the NFL who carry similar route trees. Word of caution: this is NOT an exact science but rather a starting place to observe where these WRs are coming from in college.

    Editors Note: For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2026.

    Understanding Route Trees

    Developed by the famous coach Don Coryell (whose “Air Coryell” offensive scheme is still utilized AND listed for modern NFL teams on PFR) in the 1970s, a route tree is a system of receiving routes that was first numerically assigned to simplify an offense. Today we often discuss a player’s route tree as their tendencies to run or not run certain routes. Is this WR mostly “getting in his cardio” running go routes or posts or is this an underneath receiver making his mark on crossers, screens, and flat routes?

    Who doesn’t love a good NextGenStats route tree the day after the game was played?

    We are interested in seeing variation, outliers, and finding common threads because we crave order, meaning, and love connecting the dots, even when it is irresponsible (statistically speaking) to do so. We have “buckets” to group players into because it is helpful for our brains to process.

    Dear lord, we love playing connect-the-dots as fake football managers for our fake teams. But every player has hundreds of buckets. Common route trees is one of them.

    Good friend of the show Matt Harmon of Yahoo has done an incredible job growing awareness of this data with Reception Perception. For years, I had the pleasure of editing Harmon’s work for the Footballers when RP was part of our website. I am unapologetically a big fan of Matt’s work and I will say I learned a lot about receiver nuances while editing those articles years ago.

    For the data involved in this article, I utilized SumerSports for the college WRs and FantasyPoints DataSuite for the NFL players. There are a ton of good websites and statistics out there if you are wanting a deeper dive on route concepts and trees.

    A couple of key points to keep in mind:

    Route trees & roles can shift from college to the pros.

    To try and take routes run in college we have to hold with an open hand a couple of realities:

    • What type of routes can this WR run?
    • What type of routes was he asked to run in his offense?
    • What type of routes are not frequently run by college WRs?

    We are looking at descriptive data of what they have done not necessarily sharing predictive information of what they will be.

    Coming out of college, you might’ve assumed (like me) that Amon-Ra St. Brown as a “slot-only” guy running short area routes at USC. However, his final year he was pushed outside on a whopping 65% of his routes, the highest rate of both college and through 5 years in the pros.

    The context of that 2020 USC team also is needed in a COVID-shortened year where they played only 6 total games. St. Brown paired with a sophomore Drake London and was asked to play outside more after Michael Pittman Jr. departed the previous year (what a trio!). In other words, his routes shifted in terms of the area of the field , the aDOT, and

    Players change from year-to-year based on their development & the offensive systems.

    I’ll selfishly use one of my favorite WRs of all-time to illustrate this point. You’d think that old man Keenan Allen would’ve just stayed in his lane running the same type of routes he’d done in the past for Los Angeles after a one-year hiatus in Chicago. After all, he is currently sitting at second all-time in receptions per game (6.2) and 10th in total receptions among WRs.

    Here are the shifts in route usage from 2024 to 2025 for the GOAT:

    That 11% increase in hitches/curl routes was the largest of ANY qualifying WR in football in 2025. Gone were the deep and corner routes that Caleb Williams and the Bears offense tried to make happen; instead, he became the reliable Keenan leading the Chargers in targets (122), receptions (81), and receiving first downs (49) at the ripe old age of 33 years old. His low aDOT receptions might not have been very valuable, but as a chain mover, there are few in NFL history better on “3rd-and-Keenan”.

    Take A.J. Brown for example. In 2023, he ran a slant route on just 9% of his routes, a league-average mark; on the other hand, he was among the league-leaders in % of Go Routes at almost a quarter his total route tree. Fast forward two years and you can see why publicly he was jeered for running so many more slants than in the past.

    Only George Pickens ran more slant routes than Brown in 2025. Speaking of Pickens, his success running slant routes also changed dramatically in 2025. From 2022-2024, he total 292 receiving yards on slant routes in 31 combined games. In 2025 alone, he led the entire NFL with 323 receiving yards on slant routes.

    Players change and systems change so consider that route trees and route success are not always stagnant.

    Some routes are more valuable than others in the NFL.

    I went back and compared every single route run by WRs in the NFL over the last couple of years. I was curious to see which routes (league-wide) matter and which ones tend to be shots in the dark. When we say “this guy needs to run more in/dig routes”, does that matter? Is that a valuable route?

    Here are the 2025 routes broken down by percentage of the total routes run among NFL WRs, % of total targets, the percentage of routes WRs were targeted and the average yards per route run. This route data was courtesy of FantasyPoints DataSuite but the metrics and conclusions were compiled by myself.

    Here are a couple of league-wide trends worth sharing before jumping into this year’s prospects:

    • Slant routes saw the highest increase of TPRR of any route league wide jumping from 26.1% in 2024 to 28.2% in 2025.
    • The Hitch-Curl route remained the most targeted position in terms of % of WR targets. I consider this the bread and butter route and NFL OCs routinely scheme route combinations with at least one WR running this route in 3-wide sets.
    • NFL offenses were much less efficient with Crossers and Screen routes compared to 2024. They accounted for more targets but opposing defenses allowed fewer YPRR to crossers (-0.24 YPRR from 2024) and screens (-0.45 YPRR).
    • The difference in league-wide success on Out routes versus In/Dig routes can be contributed to where WRs are lined up and how zone defenses are being deployed 70% of the time. CBs are responsible for areas and not necessarily individual matchups while the sideline, in itself, is a “defender”. Out routes provide quick hitting opportunities and a safer throwing window for the QB as opposing to the middle of the field. Thus, of all the “in-breaking routes”, the In/Dig falls behind the Slant, Post, and Crosser in terms of league-wide productivity.
    • Ah, the Go Route! The hit-or-miss route that the NFL can’t quit. While keeping defenses honest is essential, 2-high safety looks also have slowly limited big plays as we saw the fewest total 20+ air yard TDs over the last seven years.  Fun fact: The Jets completed a pass to just 4 total Go routes for the entire year including a stretch of over 2 months goose-egging!
    • Corner routes suffer from being solely used inside the red zone (99.4% of them) so the low YPRR (1.12) makes sense intuitively. However, WR were targeted on a league-low 11% of those routes and it resulted in just a 39% catch rate.

    Top-5 WR Prospects for 2026

    Carnell Tate, Ohio State

    As I noted on X, Tate’s high combination of both Hitch and Go routes kept defenses honest much like his fellow Ohio State alums Chris Olave and Terry McLaurin. For someone his size, there is a technical aspect where he can sell running deep and instead, turn on the breaks and get open in one-on-one opportunities. As a tough, physical blocker, it is easy to see why he profiles as a starting X-receiver at the next level as 89% of the time he lined up outside. You might also be a bit disappointed to see such few crossing routes given how valuable they are in the NFL. Turn on some Ohio State film, you see how wide the WRs are lined up. Expect more slant routes to be encouraged giving his future QB easy opportunities given his lanky frame.

    He converted 14% of his routes into 1st down over the last two seasons, a sign of a player who can diversity at the next level. Tee Higgins‘ game came to mind as well: deep success with the ability to take over in the short area if needed. While I would not call Tate the best route runner in class, his size, mentality, and professionalism outweigh any solid-but-not-elite production profile concerns. I often see him referred to as “polished” which is just a nice way of saying “this dude will translate to the NFL”.

    Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

    Tyson possesses target earning ability at all three levels of the field you crave for a WR1. His 16% slant route rate was the 2nd highest in the class behind only Elijah Sarratt. He also faced press coverage on 40% of his routes, only Malachi Fields saw a higher rate in this class. For reference, only 4 WRs were above that 40% mark in the NFL in 2025 and they were all much bigger in stature than Tyson: DK Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Nico Collins, and Davante Adams. In other words, opposing defenses treated him like a X-receiver when he profiles more like a Z in the mold of a young Stefon Diggs.

    That might be my favorite comp thus far for Tyson as his inside/outside versatility and finesse style should not be mistaken for a lack of tenacity or ability down the field. He can do it all including being a solid blocker (thanks WR Coach Hines Ward!) despite not being more than 200 pounds. Word of caution: that 14% screen rate won’t hold at the next level. If you are looking for some game film to dissect, the Texas Tech game gives you everything: 16 targets, multiple injuries, a key 4th down conversion late, and a PI in the end zone that set up the game-winning TD. Tyson will not be participating in the combine so there is some concern his injury history but when I compare his route tree to other current NFL WRs, there is a lot to like. The JSN one will certainly stand out but remember how JSN went from slot-only in our minds to a dominant force inside-and-out in 2025. Tyson has the versatility to be deployed in a number of fashions.

    Makai Lemon, USC

    As a perceived 1st round slot WR, Lemon’s route tree needs some context before we pigeon-hole as “this is what he is”. He won’t be running the 40 or participating in testing drills at the combine so our evaluation of his film is paramount. He likely will join a rare group of WRs who were drafted in Round 1 and predominantly ran in the slot their final college season:

    34% of his routes were screens or crossers, typical of slot WRs at the next level. In fact, the names that pop up (Khalil Shakir, Deebo Samuel) have manufactured touches in the short area of the field because their teams trust them so much after the catch. However, Lemon is more than a “layup” guy as he led this class in “completed air yards”. His route tree might not look like a player who gets a ton of down field looks but he was effective there in 2025. For reference, his 10 contested catches were the most of any WR in the FBS that saw more than 45% of their snaps in the slot.

    My favorite comp (which might be outdated for some) is Golden Tate. He began his career as a downfield threat for the Seahawks averaging over 13 yards per reception and then morphed into a slot weapon in Detroit for years. That might not be the ceiling outcome dynasty managers would hope for but the connection is more so highlighting Lemon’s ability to win in multiple facets. His body control is legit for someone who really isn’t a leaper and he looks fearless.

    We far too often label players as “slot-only” WRs without recognizing how the slot position does not remain static. We think of slot merchants of days old like Wes Welker, Jarvis Landry, or even my guy Keenan Allen but the NFL is changing in regards to how effective slot players are. Consider how slot WRs were targeted on just 18% of their routes while churning out a paltry 1.40 YPRR league-wide in 2025. It was almost as if the league morphed into the 2025 version of Christian Kirk (18% TPRR in the slot) or 2025 Cooper Kupp (1.41 YPRR in the slot). Ouch.

    When I look at Lemon’s route tree, I do not want us to assume he only will run the low aDOT routes we’ve come accustomed to associating with these slot WRs. A 22% hitch/curl rate is phenomenal, in my opinion, and far outpaces any of the other WRs in that set above. I wanted to include Ladd McConkey as another comparable as someone who came into the league perceived as a slot-only option but who actually has had more success when he’s kicked outside: 1.71 YPRR versus 1.34 in the slot last year. I also included Amon-Ra St. Brown in this list because he gets comped wayyyy too much to his fellow USC alum. As I mentioned above, Amon-Ra quietly has been even better outside (3.19 YPRR in 2025) than in the slot. The question will be if Lemon finds himself in an NFL offense that only gives him drags, crossers, and screens or allows him to have shot plays down the seam. He was the only player in this class to hit 3.0+ YPRR versus both zone and man coverage and it’s clear he possesses the football IQ & dawg mentality to be more than just a slot maven.

    Denzel Boston, Washington

    I came into the film evaluation of Boston with a bit of a negative bias, I must add. First off, every one and their mama has mentioned he is the son of former NFL WR David Boston… he is not! (Don’t get me started on AI-based research.) On the outset, he profiles as a big (6’4″), jump ball specialist that the NFL seems to have evolved from in the past 5-6 years. The days 2014 where a big X-receiver being drafted because of his size and 50/50 ability are long gone. The NFL has evolved but as I dove deeper into Boston’s game, I realized he has too. The 22% go route is typical of outside WRs who want to and can win downfield. 40% of routes were Post, Go, or Crossers, the 3rd highest rate in this class. Much like former Washington teammate Rome Odunze, we love it when we see “bully ball” in college showcasing WRs as men amongst boys especially in this air. 14 of Boston’s 18 TDs in college came against man coverage so it makes sense that outside Xs like Romeo Doubs or Marvin Harrison Jr. show up in this set.

    Boston’s career 21% TPRR and 1.81 YPRR versus zone certainly is a red flag in his profile but I also found Demond Williams Jr.’s decision-making and ability to throw into windows frustrating throughout Boston’s film watch. His hands were reliable but the offense often stalled in obvious passing situations. While body control and high-pointing the ball are his calling cards, he can hit a slant route using his body to “shield defenders”. There is more to his game so I like when Harmon described him as Diet Coke Mike Evans, someone who came into the league as perceived as a jump ball guy. The Illinois game is a good one to watch as Boston was also surprisingly used in the screen game. In college, it makes sense to manufacture easy opportunities to your best players but a 6’4″ WR seeing a 9% screen rate? For reference, the highest rates of any qualifying NFL WRs that tall in 2025 was DK Metcalf (2.4%), Michael Pittman Jr. (2.0%), and Quentin Johnston (1.7%).  That 9% obviously won’t hold but it did present a difficult assignment in comparing a tall outside WR who has more shiftiness that he gets credit. His burst off the line of scrimmage is not elite by any means but when you look at the totality of what he was asked to do in college, it’s wild that this 6’4″ player also returned kicks! I couldn’t help myself in doing a search but Boston would be the only WR 6’3″+ drafted in Rounds 1 or 2 with 25+ kick returns in college since 2010.

    Jayden Higgins is an interesting comp and someone who I think can progress in Year 2 if he can be moved all around the formation. He was asked to run a lot of empty “in/dig” routes for the Texans where he was targeted on just 7.7% of those routes as opposed to 33% on Out routes and 25% on Hitch/Curls. Boston profiles more as a WR2 for an NFL offense akin to Higgins’ role as a tag-team duo Nico Collins. Both profile as significant contributors inside the 20 and as reliable blockers with room to more than just a boundary X-receiver.

    KC Concepcion, Texas A&M

    If you’re looking for a fun time, turn on some KC tape and buckle up!

    Let me be clear: I am a KC fan but I also must acknowledge that calling his route combination a “tree” might be far too kind. It is full of quick hitters with 40% of his routes classified as Slants, Crossers, or Screens. For context, that ranks 5th highest in this class and the only qualifying NFL WR to hit that 40+ % mark in 2025 was Khalil Shakir.  KC’s production is quirky considering he would join Wan’Dale Robinson and Khalil Shakir as the only WRs drafted over the past decade with 2,200+ receiving yards and 400+ rushing yards. Before you simply write off him as a gadget player, consider how advantageous it was in college to get put him in motion pre-snap and create even more separation. As my co-host Matthew Betz put it, once he gets the ball, it’s “night night” for opposing defenses! The twitchiness is real but he is by no means a nuanced or varied route runner. Malik Washington makes sense as a route comp as a slot-only low aDOT option for Miami and Titans do-it-all rookie Chimere Dike is a fun addition. I want to paint a broader picture of what else I see with Concepcion.

    Yep, the name Justin Jefferson might surprise you on that list above. Coming out of LSU, Jefferson ran 98% of his routes out of the slot before taking the league by storm as a rookie running 70% of his routes outside. Concepcion’s progression from being a slot-only guy in two seasons at NC State (93% and 82% slot rates) to only 34% in 2025 brings a giant question mark if his route tree will be allowed to progress in the NFL. Concepcion, in my opinion, has the ability to win on the outside with Slant and Hitch routes and fill out his bag of tricks despite his lack of size. The comp I used in our Scouting Reports of our Dynasty pass was Emmanuel Sanders, which again dates me. With the Broncos, he was a fantasy force in 3-WR sets alongside Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. I would love to see Concepcion flourish in an offense like Washington opposite Terry McLaurin. The issue will be his thin frame and if his lack of blocking prowess forces him off the field in 2-WR sets. The drops (19 in 3 years) might turn off some people but as I’ve stated numerous times on the Dynasty Podcast, drop rate is by far the least predictive stat for future fantasy points per game production in the NFL. Amon-Ra St. Brown led the NFL in drops in 2025 and I have yet to find anyone complaining about it.

    Rest of the Prospects

    This data is compiled courtesy of @SumerSports.

    Quick Notes

    Omar Cooper Jr. apparently is everyone’s favorite Round 1 sleeper over the last two weeks. He does possess inside/outside versatility playing primarily on the perimeter in 2024 befoe becoming a full-time slot receiver in 2025. His route tree (28% screen rate, 17% out rate) was confusing to dissect and relate to the NFL level. The only WRs with rates above 7+% in both areas were Malik Washington, Chimere Dike and Xavier Worthy. Those are YAC-specialists although I’d be shocked if Cooper blows the doors off the combine like those last two.

    Elijah Sarratt‘s 20% slant route rate is off-the-charts. For context, the WRs running slant routes at the highest rates in the NFL in 2025 top out at 15%: Khalil Shakir (15%), DK Metcalf (14%), Tyler Lockett (14%), A.J. Brown (14%), Juju Smith-Schuster (12%), Nico Collins (12%), and Keenan Allen (12%).

    Malachi Fields ran a post, go, or corner on 44% of his routes, highest in class. Expect to see a ton of Darius Slayton (46%) and Quentin Johnston (43%) comps in the future. Heck, make a game out of it every time you see it.

    Chris Brazzell II ran a post, go, or crosser on 45% of his routes, highest in class. That puts him alongside deep ball threats like Alec Pierce (46%), Tre Tucker (45%), and Darius Slayton (43%).

    31% of Skyler Bell’s targets came behind the line of scrimmage. While he ranked #1 in the class in YPPR versus zone coverage (3.16), we must acknowledge 43% of his routes were either crossers or screens. He profiles as an underneath receiver who could become quality WR3 for NFL team. I likened him to a “thinner Parker Washington” if you want to carry it further.

    Speedster Brenen Thompson ran a Hitch or Go on 58% of his routes, 2nd highest in class. The paper thin WR (170 lbs.) can stop on a dime or blow past defenders. It could puts him in Jahan Dotson territory (51%) as an afterthought or reveals more to his game as a Marvin Mims Jr. (45%) do-it-all.

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