Sam Farley
• Betting Analyst
10+ years betting experience
Updated:
Apr 25, 2026 , 09:22 PM ET
• 4 min read
Farley’s Prediction: Expect Ethan Ampadu to get at least one card against Chelsea.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Ethan Ampadu of Leeds United EPL
The second match of this weekend’s FA Cup semi-finals takes place on Sunday, with Chelsea and Leeds meeting at the iconic Wembley Stadium.
While all eyes will be on Chelsea and their caretaker manager, our Chelsea vs. Leeds predictions focus on Leeds and their captain, Ethan Ampadu, who we expect to be booked.
Read on for my FA Cup picks for Sunday, April 26, with kickoff at 10:00 a.m. ET on ESPN2.
Chelsea vs Leeds picks and predictions
My Chelsea vs Leeds best bet: Ethan Ampadu to be shown a card (+170 at Sports Interaction)
Ethan Ampadu will have an extra incentive to win on Sunday as he faces his old team. Now he’s the captain for Leeds and has nine yellow cards to his name this season, including one in this competition.
Ampadu ranks second in the Leeds squad for fouls committed, averaging 1.31 fouls per 90 minutes played, and the tough-tackling midfielder leads the team in tackles, averaging 2.39 per game.
He’ll be matched up against Enzo Fernandez and Cole Palmer, which should give him a tough day at the office.
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Chelsea vs Leeds same-game parlay (SGP)
Chelsea to win
Both teams to score
Joao Pedro 1+ shot on target
Chelsea will be looking for a new manager with Calum McFarlane taking charge on an interim basis. Chelsea have underperformed relative to their xG (expected goals) more than all but one other EPL team and should be due for positive regression.
We’ve seen both teams to score land in 58.8% of both Chelsea and Leeds’ league games this season. Leeds are in fine attacking form, having scored in four straight games.
Joao Pedro is expected to return to the starting lineup on Sunday and the Brazilian is one of the only players who still shone under Liam Rosenior. He’s averaged 1.01 shots on target per 90 minutes played in the Premier League this season.
Chelsea vs Leeds odds
 Chelsea |
 Leeds |
|
|---|---|---|
| +110 | Moneyline | +240 |
| +250 | Draw | +250 |
| Over 2.5 (-125) | Total | Under 2.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Chelsea vs Leeds opening odds
- Moneyline: Chelsea +110 | Leeds +240
- Draw: +250
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-125) | Under 2.5 (-115)
How to watch Chelsea vs Leeds
| Location | Wembley Stadium, London, England |
| Date | Sunday, April 26, 2026 |
| Time | 10:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
| Weather | Cloudy |
Chelsea vs Leeds key injuries
Chelsea: Estevao FWD (Out), Reece James RB (Out), Levi Colwill CB (Out), Jamie Gittens FWD (Out), Mykhailo Mudryk FWD (Out).
Leeds: Ilia Gruev CM (Out), Jayden Bogle RB (Questionable), Sebastiaan Bornauw CB (Questionable), Anton Stach CM (Questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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