The Buffalo Bills, led by Josh Allen, have been one of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL in recent years. They have been a top-six scoring offense for five consecutive seasons, including four top-three finishes. However, they have not produced a top-ten fantasy WR since 2023, Stefon Diggs’ final season in Buffalo. There is potential value to be had in the Bills’ passing offense, but how will the targets break down? I’ll take a look at potential outcomes in this version of our “Target Practice” series.
Buffalo’s 2026 Passing Game Outlook
The Bills trail only the Rams when it comes to Super Bowl odds, and Josh Allen is the leading candidate for league MVP. Allen hit a peak of 655 pass attempts in 2021, but that figure has declined since Joe Brady took over the offense in 2023, dropping as low as 495 last season. That total could increase in 2026, but with Brady now serving as head coach, projecting more than 550 attempts is difficult.
Vacated targets are crucial when projecting fantasy output, and details for each team appear in the Dynasty Pass Team Opportunity Report. The Bills have few, with departing players accounting for only 56 targets—12% of last season’s target share. Most of these belonged to Gabe Davis (18), Elijah Moore (17), Brandin Cooks (11), and Curtis Samuel (9).
So how will the targets be distributed in this high-powered offense? Let’s take a look at the potential pass-catchers and their range of outcomes in the passing game.
Wide Receivers
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DJ Moore
Target Potential: 125-150
Moore is the new guy in town, and while maybe he has never been viewed as a true target hog, he averaged a solid 135 targets per season and 27% target share from 2019-2024. Those numbers fell off a cliff last season when Ben Johnson took over as head coach in Chicago, but despite being labeled as a “bust” in the UDK, his reunion with Joe Brady gives him the potential to regain a 25%+ target share, which would equate to 125-150 Josh Allen targets.
Khalil Shakir
Target Potential: 85-105
Shakir led Buffalo in targets the past two seasons, but with just 100 and 95 targets, respectively. He has averaged a good, but not great, 22% target share over those two seasons. He will certainly remain involved and has an outside chance to lead the Bills in targets, but it is difficult to envision him transforming into a true target commander, especially with Moore in town.
Keon Coleman
Target Potential: 50-70
Coleman disappointed as a rookie and made little progress as a second-year professional, failing to top 60 targets in either of his first two seasons. The Bills may be holding out hope for the 23-year-old, third-year WR, and you may want to keep him on your waiver wire radar, but it is unlikely that he sees a significant target uptick in 2026.
Joshua Palmer
Target Potential: 40-60
Yes, he is still on the Bills, on a contract that technically goes through 2027. He may have seen 107 targets with the Chargers in 2022, but that cratered to a career-low 37 targets in his first season with the Bills last year. His season-high nine targets came in Week 1, but he never topped five the rest of the way, while missing five games in the middle of the season with knee and ankle injuries. He may play a rotational role in the offense, but is unlikely to become fantasy viable.
Tight Ends
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Dalton Kincaid
Target Potential: 60-90
Kincaid has shown flashes of fantasy greatness, but has been maddeningly inconsistent. He has seen his total targets drop in each of his three NFL seasons, while playing in fewer games each season due to his nagging injuries. He has the potential to be a top target-earning TE if he stays healthy, but at this point, that feels like a pretty big if.
Dawson Knox
Target Potential: 30-50
Knox has seen fewer than 50 targets in three consecutive seasons, but he is likely to maintain a trustworthy role in Buffalo’s offense. I wouldn’t expect him to top 50 targets in 2026 either, but he will likely have enough to frustrate those who roster other Buffalo pass catchers, especially when he steals a red zone TD or two.
Running Backs
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James Cook
Target Potential: 30-60
Cook profiled as a high-upside pass-catcher out of the backfield when he entered the league in 2022. That upside never materialized, as he has averaged just 41 targets/season over his first four years. It hasn’t been too detrimental to his fantasy output, as his work on the ground helped lead him to top-eight fantasy finishes in consecutive seasons. Cook looks to finish as an RB1 again in 2026, and any work he gets through the air is a bonus.
Ty Johnson
Target Potential: 20-40
Johnson is one of the reasons that Cook has never been a premier pass catcher. The veteran back has averaged nearly 2.0 targets/game since 2021. He is not involved enough to be a fantasy option himself, but he is involved enough to affect other pass catchers in Buffalo.
The Fantasy Strategy
DJ Moore is the favorite to lead the team in targets after Buffalo sent a second-round pick to Chicago to acquire him this offseason. From Stefon Diggs to Amari Cooper, the Bills have a mixed history of adding big-name WRs. There is the potential that Moore is frustratingly inconsistent, but if his ADP sticks around the round 5-6 turn, it will be hard to turn down his potential targets from Josh Allen in 2026.
The rest of the receiving corps in Buffalo is borderline undraftable. Despite eclipsing a 20% target share in consecutive seasons, Khalil Shakir has never finished as a top-36 fantasy WR. Keon Coleman and Joshua Palmer make for interesting late-round best ball darts, but neither projects to see enough targets to be trustworthy in redraft leagues.
We have similar situations at TE and RB, where a potentially elite pass-catcher at the position is nerfed by a teammate at the same position. It is a bigger issue for Dalton Kincaid, while James Cook can be a top fantasy RB without high target volume.
While Buffalo’s offense is expected to remain elite with Josh Allen in his prime, projecting the targets is not an easy task.