Broncos vs Chiefs Touchdown Picks & First TD Prediction for Monday Night Football

Josh Inglis
• Betting Analyst

13+ years betting experience

Updated:
Sep 14, 2026 , 04:23 PM ET

• 4 min read

With the turnover in the Kansas City secondary and the addition of Jaylen Waddle, the Broncos are in a great place with their deep passing game on Monday night.

It’s a classic AFC West showdown at Arrowhead tonight. With two quarterbacks returning from injury, some O-line issues for the Chiefs, and a secondary the Broncos can exploit, there are plenty of touchdown angles to consider in my Broncos vs. Chiefs touchdown picks for Monday Night Football.

These are my favorite plane breakers for Monday, Sept. 14. 

Best Broncos vs Chiefs anytime touchdown picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Pick	Probability
Jaylen Waddle	31%
Xavier Worthy	23%
Tyquan Thornton first TD	3%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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Broncos touchdown pick: Jaylen Waddle

Kalshi probability: 31%

I bought this at 31% with a fair price of 2.7x. I want this new deep connection to work, and if the talk out of camp is true, this will be a great price.

Bo Nix knows how to avoid sacks, and Jaylen Waddle’s 13.06 aDOT last year would have led the Denver Broncos. Nix just needs to improve his deep ball, which ranked in the bottom third of the league last year. He still managed to throw for nearly 4,000 yards, and hopefully new playcaller Davis Webb can get more out of his QB. 

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs lost three of their four leading snap-getters in the secondary, including CB Trent McDuffie, S Bryan Cook, and CB Jaylen Watson. There’s plenty of uncertainty in this new secondary, and the early part of the season is likely the best time to fade it before DC Steve Spagnuolo works his magic.

Chiefs touchdown pick: Xavier Worthy

Kalshi probability: 23%

The fair probability, per Covers’ prop projections, is around 27%, leaving a lot of room for the second-best +EV TD on the board.

Xavier Worthy will likely see most of his time in the slot and on shorter routes, which might be to his advantage. The injury to the Chiefs’ starting left tackle, coupled with Patrick Mahomes’ mobility, could hurt Kansas City’s chances of throwing longer-developing routes.

THE BLITZ also projects the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented team in the red zone, adjusted for context, at a 66% RZ pass rate. This game also projects to have the second-most total plays at 130.4 in Week 1.

First touchdown scorer pick: Tyquan Thornton 

Kalshi probability: 3%

With Patrick Surtain on one side and likely taking care of Rashee Rice and Worthy in the slot, Tyquan Thornton will likely face corner Riley Moss, and that’s good news for an early deep shot or two.

Moss had 10 penalties last year and is a very aggressive defender. Thornton grabbed one ball for 61 yards in the last meeting and should get a couple of deep shots against the weaker corner. If the Chiefs are in third-and-long, look for Thornton to get a deep target. His alternate Over receiving-yard props are also in play. The KC wide receiver had one of the best aDOTs in football last season.  

If you’re looking for a bragging-rights first TD on MNF, this is the one. 

Broncos vs Chiefs touchdown combo

Everyone always wants a long shot, and the double-QB TD almost always offers that. Bo Nix is a very underrated runner near the goal line, especially when the Broncos don’t have any defined roles in their muddied backfield. The last time he was in Arrowhead, he ran for 43 yards and a score.

Mahomes is longer for a reason, but let’s not pretend like he doesn’t know what to do inside the 20. This is also the most pass-happy offense in football in the red zone.

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