The top two teams in the National League collide Monday as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Philadelphia Phillies for the first contest of their three-game series. Milwaukee (85-53), which owns the best record in the majors, has a 6.5-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central despite having gone just 6-8 over its last 14 contests. The Phillies (79-58) are six games ahead of the New York Mets in the NL East but are under .500 on the road this season (34-35) and have lost seven of their last nine away from home.
Both teams are looking to bounce back from losses which denied them series sweeps. The Brewers squandered an early two-run lead on the road and dropped an 8-4 decision to the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday in the finale of their three-game set, while the Phillies were unable to hold a late one-run advantage as the Atlanta Braves scored once in the eighth inning and twice in the ninth to salvage the last of their four matchups with a 3-1 triumph.
Milwaukee, which outscored the Phillies 28-11 while sweeping a three-game series in Philadelphia earlier this season, sends All-Star right-hander Jacob Misiorowski (4-2, 4.33 ERA) to the mound in Monday’s opener. The 23-year-old rookie is winless in his last five starts but reached double digits in strikeouts for the second time in his brief MLB career last time out, fanning 10 batters over five innings of a no-decision against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Phillies counter with Taijuan Walker (4-7, 3.63), who will be making his 10th consecutive start and 18th overall this year. The 33-year-old righty is just 1-2 since returning to the rotation and has registered more than three strikeouts in only three of those nine outings.
Top sportsbooks have set the total strikeouts props for Walker (Over -166, Under +125) at 2.5 and Misiorowski (Over +110, Under -142) at 6.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Walker’s Over 2.5 strikeouts prop as a 4.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Misiorowski’s Under 6.5 as a 3.5-star play.
However, the model has found better value on Monday’s 13-game schedule, as there are two pitcher strikeout player props that it has rated at 5 stars and one at 4.5 stars that returns plus money. Here they are:
Kai-Wei Teng Under 3.5 strikeouts (+113) vs. Rockies (4:10 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 1.4 strikeouts
Teng will be making his fourth start and fifth overall appearance since being brought up from Triple-A Sacramento at the beginning of August. The 26-year-old Taiwanese righty has registered 12 strikeouts across 13 1/3 innings in the majors this season but has yet to notch more than four strikeouts or last longer than five frames in an outing. He has worked a total of only five innings in his last two turns in the Giants’ rotation, including a 1 2/3-inning stint against the San Diego Padres on Aug. 13 in which he failed to record a strikeout.
Kyle Bradish Over 4.5 strikeouts (-101) vs. Padres (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.2 strikeouts
Bradish will be on the mound for just the second time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2024. The 28-year-old righty was impressive in his season debut against the Boston Red Sox last Tuesday, as he reached double digits in strikeouts for just the fifth time in 62 starts by fanning 10 batters across six innings. The Padres have struck out the fewest among NL teams this year but did so nine times in three of their last four contests, so there’s a solid chance Bradish will go Over his projected total in the opener of this three-game series.
Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts (+108) vs. Orioles (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 6.4 strikeouts
Cease is fourth in the NL and sixth in the majors this season with 183 strikeouts. However, the 29-year-old right-hander has gone four consecutive starts without recording more than seven strikeouts after exceeding that total in four of his previous five turns. In fact, Cease set a season low by fanning only two batters in his 3 1/3-inning outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Aug. 16. Cease has averaged six strikeouts over his last five contests, a span during which he went Under his projected total four times.