Ducey’s prediction: Pegula hangs tough early.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Jessica Pegula (USA) hits.
The women’s semifinals will take center stage on Thursday night at the US Open, and to get things started, we’ll see yet another American aiming for a career breakthrough.
After taking down Jessica Pegula in last year’s final, Aryna Sabalenka will look to make it 8-2 in her career against the American and move closer to another grand slam victory and added security atop the world rankings.
Will she get the job done here, or will the American defy the US Open odds?
Let’s break it all down with my Sabalenka vs. Pegula predictions and free betting picks for Thursday, September 4.
Sabalenka vs Pegula prediction and best bet
Match analysis
When it’s all said and done, Jessica Pegula is going to have a pretty solid season under her belt. Though she’s now matched her loss total from a season ago, she’s won three more matches to enter play on Thursday at 42-16 across all competitions.
It hasn’t been without issue, as the American experienced some turbulence on clay and grass, which carried over to the start of this year’s hardcourt swing, but she’s quickly established some momentum with five wins here at the US Open, including an impressive one over the dangerous Barbora Krejcikova last round.
Pegula generally stands as a tough opponent for a power player like Sabalenka, using her expert consistency from the baseline and flat groundstrokes to stave off offense. That hasn’t necessarily amounted to many wins, however, with the American taking just one of her last eight matches in the head-to-head — and that win came at the end of the 2023 season.
Sabalenka has been able to navigate Pegula in straight sets in the past three years, and it was last year at the US Open where Pegula seemed to have her best opportunity, only to fumble away two winnable sets in the final.
We should see more of the same here with the Belarusian red-hot and ready to go after taking down two tricky counter-punchers like Pegula and receiving some rest with a walkover in the quarters.
Best best analysis
I wanted to play Pegula’s total games won here, but we’re made to pay a line of -120 on the over 9.5. I see it as likely that the American will continue creeping closer to her longtime rival, particularly with the way she’s returned at these championships, and it should be said that she’s shaken a longstanding issue with slow starts as well.
Pegula has dropped just six total games in the first set over her five matches here, and while Sabalenka did have a neat and tidy first set against Christina Bucsa and Leylah Fernandez, she played a tiebreak and a 7-5 first set in her first two matches.
This is a common theme for Sabalenka, which began at Wimbledon and continued on to Cincinnati. She’s been a slow starter, and even with a lead, she’s become nervous to close out sets. Pegula hits the ball a lot harder than the previous two opponents the World No. 1 has faced, so this won’t be a case where Sabalenka can simply hit the American off the court.
The decision between the total games won by Pegula and the game spread is a tough one, but the much easier call is taking the plus money on Pegula to at least force a tiebreaker in the first if she doesn’t win it.
Sabalenka vs Pegula odds
| (1) Aryna Sablenka | (4) Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| -310 | Moneyline | +250 |
| -4.5 (-110) | Game spread | +4.5 (-125) |
| Over 21.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 21.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook.
How to watch Sabalenka vs Pegula
| Location | Arthur Ashe Stadium, New York, NY |
| Date | Thursday, 9-4-2025 |
| Time | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.