ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most fun games to play this NFL season. The rules are simple: pick one team, and as long as they win (or tie), you advance to the next round. If they lose, you are out. The caveat is you cannot pick the same team twice.
Week 3 finally had the first major upset of the season with the Green Bay Packers blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns. It was the first game all season where more than 10% of the field was knocked out. Still, 72% of all entrants remain, a far cry from last year when 95% of entrants had been eliminated by now.
This week, the Buffalo Bills are the largest favorites so far as they host the winless New Orleans Saints, but they also have one of the easiest remaining schedules. The smaller the group, the better the pick the Bills are, as immediate win probability matters more, especially if you have not burned any of the other elite teams (or the Arizona Cardinals, who have a prime Week 5 matchup, just like the Bills).
It’s a close call this week for the top choice, but I will side with saving the Bills for down the road and instead take the Houston Texans. There is more risk involved with taking the winless Texans, but they are the third-biggest money-line favorites of the week and set you up for success down the road if they survive. If I had five Eliminator Challenge entries, I would go two Texans, two Bills and one Denver Broncos.
Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet
Fundamentally, the Texans check almost every box. This is by far their highest win probability in any game all season, they have a comparably low selection rate and they are one of the biggest favorites of the week. The only box they don’t check is actually winning football games.
A home game against the worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics should be the cure for the Texans’ woes, even though they lost at home to the Titans last season. The Texans are the third-biggest betting favorites this week, and no coach has underachieved compared with the betting odds in his career more than Brian Callahan (3-17 career against the spread).
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Mike Clay chance to win: 76%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 69%
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ESPN BET line: Texans -7.5 (-400 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 9% selected
Before you click the Bills, make sure you are comfortable with your pick in Week 5, as next week has fewer obvious picks on paper. The other great thing about saving the Bills is that after this week, over half of entrants will likely no longer have them available, giving you strong leverage down the road. But the Bills are by far the safest pick, as this is the most lopsided matchup all season, according to Mike Clay’s model.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 93%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 80%
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ESPN BET line: Bills -16.5 (-2000 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 21% selected
Joe Burrow’s injury changed everything for the Bengals’ outlook. ESPN Analytics has dropped the Bengals to the No. 29 team in its rankings since the Burrow injury, as they are 31st in EPA per play offensively and 21st defensively.
The Eliminator Challenge market hasn’t adjusted enough yet, as the Broncos were just 5% selected as of Tuesday evening. Denver has a few strong upcoming matchups, including Week 6 in London against the Jets and Week 7 at home against the Giants, but a home game against Jake Browning & Co. is a fantastic spot.
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Mike Clay chance to win: 80%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 72%
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ESPN BET line: Broncos -7.5 (-380 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected
It’s a tricky travel schedule for the Chargers, who started the year in Brazil, then played Monday night, followed by a physical home game against the Broncos. Now the Chargers fly across the country to face the Giants in Jaxson Dart’s first start. Dart creates a little more variance with the Giants, who could provide a spark in place of Russell Wilson — or could struggle like most rookies.
Still, this is a matchup of the No. 7 and No. 31 teams by ESPN Analytics, so it’s hard to be too negative about this pick. In terms of future value, the Chargers are projected to be favored in almost every game the rest of the season, but there are very few weeks in which they’re the obvious choice. Their easiest remaining matchups are Week 9 (at Titans) and Week 13 (vs. Las Vegas Raiders).
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Mike Clay chance to win: 78%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 74%
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ESPN BET line: Chargers -6.5 (-300 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 20% selected
The Lions make sense this week as a big favorite at home against an inferior team. However, the Lions have more future value than the Broncos, Chargers and Texans, and they have significantly lower win probability this week than the Bills.
Combine that with expected high ownership for the Lions, and they seem like an easy team to save for later, perhaps as soon as next week, where both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay list them as the largest favorites (at Bengals).
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Mike Clay chance to win: 85%
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ESPN Analytics chance to win: 78%
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ESPN BET line: Lions -8.5 (-550 money line)
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Eliminator Challenge: 24% selected
Other options:
Top picks used:
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Denver Broncos (Week 1)
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Arizona Cardinals (Week 2)
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Seattle Seahawks (Week 3)
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Houston Texans (Week 4)
Projected path