Almost nobody believes Jake Paul can defeat Anthony Joshua when they box live on Netflix on December 19. There is at least one notable member of the combat sports community who is backing Paul, though. That would be Nate Diaz — and he’s putting his money where his mouth is.
Speaking on the social media platform X this week, Diaz revealed that he has placed a $20,000 wager on Paul to win. Given how big of an underdog Paul is, Diaz stands to win $142,000 if he’s right.
UFC veteran Nate Diaz places wild wager on Paul vs. Joshua
I’ll takem both out same nite MMA fight @Biggerzcom pic.twitter.com/z67EEi1MNZ
— Nathan Diaz (@NateDiaz209) November 26, 2025
“I’ll takem both out same nite MMA fight,” Diaz wrote in his post, which included a screenshot of his alleged wager.
This is a bold—and some would say stupid—move on Diaz’s part. Joshua will have every meaningful advantage in his upcoming boxing match with Paul. He’s significantly larger, stronger, and more athletic. He’s vastly more experienced. Perhaps most importantly, he is exponentially more skilled, having sharpened his weapons against the best of the heavyweight division over the course of his carer.
Diaz is a long-time UFC veteran, and once fought Benson Henderson for the promotion’s lightweight title, though he came up short. He left the MMA promotion following a submission win over Tony Ferguson in 2022. Since then, he has been cutting his teeth as a boxer.
Diaz has competed in two pro boxing matches so far. In his most recent, he defeated fellow UFC outcast Jorge Masvidal by decision. In his first, he lost a decision to Paul. Perhaps he saw something in the ring that night that gave him confidence Paul can win. However, all signs point to the UFC veteran losing $20,000 next month. Most would agree Paul has no chance in the fight — and that includes combat sports expert Joe Rogan.