Sebastian Junger wrote The Perfect Storm about the rare 1991 North Atlantic weather event where a nor’easter, a high-pressure system, and the remnants of Hurricane Grace collided to create an unusually powerful and destructive storm. The story later became a critically acclaimed film and box-office success starring George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg.
The same idea applies when predicting kicker success. Multiple variables go into identifying when a kicker is poised for a breakout performance—these are the components that make up the KScore each week in my fantasy rankings.
Each factor slightly increases the probability of a strong fantasy outing on its own. But when all of those variables peak at the same time, aligning at their most favorable levels, we get what I call a perfect storm for fantasy.
Based on my research, we may have a perfect storm this week for Brandon Aubrey.
He is at home in a dome.
The Vikings have the third-best red zone defense,
The Cowboys have a below-average red zone offense.
He has a near-perfect consistency score.
The Cowboys’ Defense is playing much better and will limit J.J. McCarthy.
He has the strongest leg in the league and will likely have multiple long-range opportunities.
When you add all these variables, you have the ideal situation for a player like Aubrey to be a playoff-winning asset for fantasy managers.
He did it last week with 23 fantasy points against the Lions. I would not be surprised to see him put up another 20-point game this week against the Vikings.
Fantasy Football Kicker Rankings & Start/Sit Advice: Week 15
Week 14 Stud Performances From Widely Rostered Kickers
Riley Patterson (K – MIA) vs. New Orleans: 3% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
With 13 fantasy points against the Jets, Patterson now has three consecutive games of double-digit fantasy points and 38 points combined in his last three games. On paper, his game this week against a Steelers team that gives up the 7th-most points to opposing kickers appears to be a good one, but kicking conditions in Pittsburgh can be rough, making him a questionable play in the fantasy playoffs.
Zane Gonzalez (K – ATL) vs. Seattle: 2% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
You do not often see a kicker on the short end of a 37-9 blowout loss post double-digit fantasy points, but that was the case this week with Gonzalez. He also missed a 50-yard try that would have made him a top-5 play.
Week 14 Dud Performances From Widely Rostered Kickers
Harrison Butker (K – KC) vs. Houston: 72% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
As someone I picked to do well this week, it pains me to write that Butker was a bust this week against the Texans. The logic proved sound, with a low combined score and a close game, but Butker missed a 40-yard try that proved to be a big swing in the game and for fantasy managers.
Kicker Rankings:
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 30th in red zone efficiency; therefore Tyler Loop has a RZ EFF score of 2. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, as well as how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 15.
Cairo Santos (K – CHI) vs. Cleveland: 23% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
Santos at home against a Browns team that has given up the 9th most points to opposing kickers looks like a solid chance for Santos to cash in on his 33.5 Kscore. If you are not feeling good about your kicker in the playoffs, Santos may be your guy.
Brandon McManus (K – GB) @ Denver: 17% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
McManus has been a volatile kicker all season and not a consistent fantasy asset. With that said, I do like this matchup on the road against the Broncos, and who knows, maybe a kicker revenge game in the playoffs is just what the doctor ordered.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Harrison Butker (K -KC) vs. Houston: 72% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 14
- My Rank: 6
- Week 14 Finish: 25
Butker’s inaccuracy bit me in the butt this week when he doinked a kick off the right upright before the end of the first half. That five point swing and change in the game script hurt his value and made him a bust this past week.
Nick Folk (K – NYJ) vs. Miami: 3% Roster Percentage on Yahoo
- ECR Rank: 20
- My Rank: 12
- Week 14 Finish: 24
Folk made his lone try and extra point, but he disappointed with only four fantasy points. I mentioned that I thought there would be kicker value in this game, but it turned out that only Riley Patterson was the player with value.
Waiver Wired
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