The offseason is over, spring training is here, and injury news is already flooding our news feeds. With that, we’re starting to get the first big swings in ADP data of draft season.
Here are the biggest ADP swings among the top 200 picks plus one bonus sleeper who’s beginning to nudge his way up draft boards.
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Note: All ADP data courtesy of NFBC
New York Mets v. Philadelphia Phillies
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Corbin Carroll, Francisco Lindor, Spencer Schwellenbach, and Jackson Holliday are among the injuries to watch in our latest update.
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ADP Risers
Zack Wheeler, SP Philadelphia Phillies
January ADP: 148
February ADP: 123
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There’s optimism surrounding Zack Wheeler’s return from a blood clot in his shoulder and ensuing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery last September.
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been steadfast that Wheeler would be back near Opening Day and he stayed consistent in his messaging this week saying he’s not far behind that.
This feels like a favorable outcome given the poor history of pitchers who’ve had TOS surgery, especially those approaching their late 30s like Wheeler is. Of course we won’t know how Wheeler’s stuff or command responded to the procedure until he gets on the mound, but it’s difficult to bet against his track record outside the top 120 picks.
The Phillies offseason also hints at confidence in Wheeler’s health. They watched Ranger Suárez leave to sign with the Red Sox and didn’t bring in any other veteran pitchers despite Wheeler’s uncertainty along with questionable depth. It’s fair to take that cue and have a bit more trust because of it.
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Seranthony Domínguez, RP Chicago White Sox
January ADP: 358
February ADP: 199
The White Sox signed Seranthony Domínguez to a two-year, $20 million contract on January 29th and he’s expected to open the season as their closer. In fact, he’s now the fourth-highest-paid player on their team.
While flawed, he had a 3.16 ERA last year with the Orioles and Blue Jays and was relied upon during Toronto’s playoff run. He also struck out 30.3% of the batters he faced, which is elite.
The eternal struggle for Domínguez always comes back to command. His 13.8% walk rate was the sixth-highest among all qualified relievers and sometimes it genuinely feels like he has no idea where the ball is going. Orioles legend Jim Palmer agrees.
Nevertheless, his high-leverage experience will put him a rung above Jordan Leasure and Grant Taylor to open the season. Just don’t be surprised if one of those flamethrowers takes this job from Domínguez if he were to falter.
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Other sleeper relievers like Clayton Beeter, Robert Garcia, Kirby Yates, and Bryan Abreu have also seen their ADPs rise as their respective chances to close have improved. They should all get legitimate consideration for save-needy teams in deeper leagues.
Robby Snelling, SP Miami Marlins
January ADP: 330
February ADP: 310
The market is responding to top prospect Robby Snelling’s golden opportunity to earn a spot in the Marlins’ rotation. Trading both Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers during the first half of January has made the door wide open to do so.
After Sandy Alcantara (who remains a trade candidate himself) and Eury Pérez at the top, Max Meyer, Braxton Garrett, and Chris Paddack are projected to round out their starting five.
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Pérez just came back from Tommy John surgery last June. A labral hip tear ended Meyer’s season that same month and he’s just recently fully healthy. Garrett hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since June 2024 after a flexor tendon strain, shoulder impingement, and multiple ensuing surgeries. Paddack has a 5.06 ERA in 441 innings since 2020.
After this crew, the Marlins’ depth pieces of Janson Junk, Adam Mazur, Bradley Blalock, and Ryan Gusto are similarly uninspiring.
Then, there’s Snelling who’s coming off 63 2/3 innings at Triple-A with a 1.27 ERA and 32.9% strikeout rate. That was a major resurgence after he stumbled during his second pro season in 2024 with his mid-90s velocity drifting down a few ticks.
He had a 6.01 ERA through July with fewer strikeouts and more walks than the year before when the Padres traded him to the Marlins as part of the package that netted them relievers Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing. He found a new groove after joining the Marlins, regaining his velocity and top prospect status.
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If his fastball can hold near 95 mph like it did last season, he could hit the ground running as a big leaguer. It’s just up to the Marlins as to how early they’re willing to give him a chance. A few strong starts this spring and murmurs of him making the club could push his ADP up much further.
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ADP Fallers
Corbin Carroll, Francisco Lindor, and Jackson Holliday
Carroll pre-injury ADP: 8
Carroll post-injury ADP: 18
Lindor pre-injury ADP: 17
Lindor post-injury ADP: 23
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Holliday pre-injury ADP: 134
Holliday post-injury ADP: 163
The broken hamate crew have all seen their ADP fall in the wake of recent injury news.
For Corbin Carroll and Jackson Holliday, only one draft has been logged as part of the NFBC’s ADP data between their injuries being announced on Wednesday and me writing this on Thursday evening. So, perhaps their falls end up less severe as more of a sample develops.
Still, it’s fair to exhibit caution when drafting anyone from this trio, especially Holliday. His ADP before the injury baked in some expectation that he’d take a leap forward after disappointingly being the 17th-ranked second baseman in earned value last season.
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His profile showed no signs of that breakout, aside from his former number one overall prospect status. It’s reasonable to fear a lost season in standard 10- or 12-team formats.
Maybe there’s a path forward similar to Francisco Alvarez’s last season. He suffered from the same injury in spring training, came back quickly with no setbacks, struggled through the first half, and then erupted as a waiver claim after the All-Star break.
As for Carroll, it’s difficult not to officially put the injury-prone tag on him. Perhaps his max effort play style could be too much for his relatively small body to handle. As a rookie, he swung so hard he popped his shoulder from its socket.
He didn’t miss much time, but it zapped his power for a full year. Now, this hamate injury could do the same in the short term. Watching him play with reckless abandon is a treat; it’s just starting to get scary watching the injuries pile up.
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Francisco Lindor has the best chance to shake his broken hamate off among this trio.
The bottom hand is where the hamate breaks as the hand wraps around the knob of the bat. After surgery, it’s difficult to get that strength back. As a switch-hitter, he will be able to hide his weaker left hand by hitting left-handed (with his right hand on the bottom), which will happen naturally when he faces right-handed pitchers.
Also, he’s earned his reputation as a warrior playing through a back and toe injury over the last two seasons and not allowing his counting stats to suffer.
Spencer Schwellenbach, SP Atlanta Braves
January ADP: 93
February ADP: 157
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This one’s easy: Spencer Schwellenbach was placed on the 60-day injured list immediately when he reported to camp with elbow inflammation. Even more frustrating, the last update we got from the Braves on Schwellenbach was that his elbow was “pain free” in November after an elbow fracture ended his last season in July.
The best-case scenario is that bone spurs are the root cause of Schwellenbach’s elbow pain. He’s set to get a scope to remove them, and if all goes well he could be back sometime in June.
Yet, after the way last year went and this injury popping up so soon going into camp, that best-case scenario feel far-fetched. Complications are ordinary when situations like this arise in February and it’s fair to take Schwellenbach off your draft board altogether at this point.
Hurston Waldrep is a name to watch in response. He took a step forward last season as he replaced a poor fastball with a new cutter and sinker. That allowed his nasty splitter to play up and he has a genuine chance to make the Braves’ Opening Day rotation.
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Blake Snell, SP Los Angeles Dodgers
January ADP: 83
February ADP: 102
In the least straightforward update I could imagine, Blake Snell is “tired” after the postseason and will ramp up slowly. That has put his status for Opening Day in question and thus, dropped his ADP a good bit.
He did throw 34 innings last October, which is a lot. He also only threw 61 1/3 during the regular season which marked the fifth time over the last six full seasons where he’s failed to reach 130 innings.
Reading between the lines and understanding where the Dodgers are at as a team, they have openly deprioritized the regular season. There is no reason to push Snell (or any of their other starting pitchers) when they have a 94.5% chance to win their division according to FanGraphs.
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If anyone feels a twinge, a tickle, even an itch, they’ll let them rest until they’re 110% healthy. Once mid-August hits they’ll ramp up for the playoffs and start their real season.
This could wind up as a nice discount on Snell. Or, we should reduce our workload expectations across the board for all Dodgers pitchers.