After a stunning 8-6 upset loss to Italy in World Baseball Classic pool play, Team USA’s knockout stage fate now rests on the result of Wednesday’s Italy-Mexico game.
Here are the tiebreaker scenarios that will determine if the star-studded U.S. squad moves on to the quarterfinals or is sent home in an all-time shocker.
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How Team USA can advance in WBC
Team USA moves on if …
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Italy beats Mexico: Italy would win the pool at 4-0 and Team USA would finish second at 3-1 (ahead of Mexico’s 2-2 mark).
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If Mexico beats Italy and Mexico scores five or more runs in nine innings. All thee teams would finish 3-1, Mexico and Team USA would then advance on tiebreaker.
Team USA is eliminated if …
How WBC tiebreaker scenarios work
Given the round-robin format of the WBC opening round, ties are to be expected in pool play. This is how the teams moving on are decided.
Two-team tiebreaker
Three-team tiebreaker
While a two-team tiebreaker scenario is very straightforward, it gets decidedly more complicated when three teams finish with the same record, with the tiebreaker decided in this order:
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Lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed by defensive outs recorded in games between teams that are tied
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Lowest quotient of fewest earned runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the teams that are tied
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Highest batting average in games between the teams that are tied
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Drawing of lots
Heading into Wednesday’s Pool B finale, this is how the three teams vying to move on in stack up in runs allowed per defensive out (and a lower quotient is better).
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Team USA: 11 runs allowed, 54 defensive outs. 0.2037 quotient
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Mexico: Five runs allowed, 24 defensive outs. 0.2083 quotient
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Italy: Six runs allowed, 27 defensive outs. 0.2222 quotient