A month away from the NFL Draft, it is time to start settling some debates folks!
You’ve likely seen a ton of discourse over the last week regarding Ty Simpson and his status as a potential 1st round pick. Regardless of which side of the argument you are on, we still have to settle how NFL teams will allocate their draft capital and if they need to spend a 1st on Simpson.
Every 1st Round QB* over the last decade had a publicly known top-30 visit OR private workout with the NFL team that drafted them (full list in 🧵)
But that factoid is useless if Simpson is not a 1st rounder… https://t.co/nD0cqYGbpO
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) March 25, 2026
Counting Simpson, we have 55(!) full scouting reports in the Dynasty Pass on every player found in our 2026 rookie rankings.
This article series is meant to give an overview of the class and highlight the best of the best in a number of categories we care about at the next level.
Editor’s Note: This article is part of our Scouting Reports series leading up to the 2026 NFL Draft. For full detailed scouting reports on every player we have ranked in our rookie rankings, check out the 2026 Dynasty Pass.
QB Class Overview
Listed below are the 10 prospects organized by their recent NFL Mock Draft Database consensus rank.
Let’s look at six categories we are using to define and differentiate this QB class:
- Ball Placement/Accuracy
- Arm Strength
- Decision-Making
- Sack Avoidance
- Scrambling Ability
- Experience
The goal is to highlight a few superlatives, give you specific insights into our scouting reports, and give you an overview on the class.
Ball Placement/Accuracy
Here are five questions worth asking before diving into a QBs profile or film evaluation:
- Is the ball delivered on time and with confidence?
- How consistently do they deliver “catchable” targets?
- Can they identify and deliver in tight windows?
- Do they hit their receivers in stride?
- Can they consistently complete passes in the intermediate and deep areas of the field?
King of the Class: Fernando Mendoza jumped in every single meaningful statistical category including adjusted completion percentage (79%), which ranked 3rd in the nation. Aided by 16 games played in this CFB playoff format, he became 1 of 9 college QBs over the last decade to post 40+ Passing TDs and a 70+ % completion percentage. His 126.3 passer rating in the short area of the field (0-9 yards) was #1 in the nation while he was 19th in the intermediate (10-19 yards) area of the field. The Hoosiers’ top WRs and future NFL draft picks Elijah Sarratt & Omar Cooper Jr. certainly offered plenty of opportunities for big plays throughout the course of the season. Nevertheless, it is Mendoza’s patience and ability to see and spin it that will serve him well at the next level as I shared in his full Rookie Profile article.
Honorable Mentions: Carson Beck improved mightily en route to Miami’s run to the National Title game. With a 69.5% career completion percentage, he has the ability to read zone coverage and move through progressions. On 3-step drops, the ball comes out quickly and accurately as evidenced by his class-leasing 112 completions behind the line of scrimmage. His overall arm strength is gone after elbow surgery but there is a place for someone like Beck in the NFL…. Diego Pavia‘s 79.2% adjusted completion percentage technically is ahead of Mendoza but it is worth mentioning that 57% of his attempts were
This is one of the areas of concern with Ty Simpson
Arm Strength
Perhaps not as prized as it once was in the draft community, it still matters if a QB can rip it. It is something to behold knowing there is nuance between seeing velocity (Michael Vick) and raw strength (Josh Allen). They can work in tandem (Justin Herbert) in the NFL. Here are a few questions we can ask to determine arm strength:
- On 20+ air yard throws, does the ball hang in the air or does it “cut through”?
- On intermediate throws, is it a dart or a duck?
- Is the ball “ripped” through tight windows?
- How much effort is exerted on throws down the field: posts, go routes, etc?
- Can they hit throws to the sideline especially from the opposite hash?
King of the Class: Physically, Drew Allar looks like someone who should be an NFL QB and some of the counting stats look impressive. Despite joining Caleb Williams and Marcus Mariota as the only FBS QBs to throw 1000+ career passes and have fewer than 15 career INTs, ask Penn State fans how they feel about Allar. He suffered a pretty big fall from grace in a lost season with a lot of missed opportunities as the team asked him to do more, especially against man coverage. He looks like a mid-round project for an NFL team that believes they can fix his issues processing defenses.
Honorable Mentions: Mendoza’s ability to “spin the ball” is more-so related to how the ball pops up out of his hand. His arm strength is fine but not necessarily elite; yet, it is the velocity he generates from his three quarters throwing motion is pretty impressive. This type of delivery is ideal for quicker releases in the screen game and intermediate area throws in a West Coast-style of offense. A lot of times you watch a college QB try to “heave” the ball down field while Mendoza’s deep ball has enough zip to make it 35-40+ yard down the field.
Decision-Making
For some evaluators, this might be most vital in forecasting future NFL signal-callers.
- Is this QB a one-read only guy or can they work through progressions?
- How effectively does this QB read coverages and execute?
- Under pressure, can they come up with an escape plan or quickly identify outlet receivers?
- Inside the red zone, how unflappable are they?
King of the Class: It would be tough going any other direction than the Heisman-trophy winner. Mendoza was perfect inside the red zone over the last two seasons: 39 passing TDs and ZERO INTs. Wowzers. You can’t walk away from watching a year’s worth of Mendoza film and not appreciate the clutch moments that showed up on film. The big plays happened when they were needed most as Jim Sannes shared recently: averaging over 11 yards per play on 3rd or 4th downs with 6+ yards to go in 2025. That’s second best among drafted FBS QBs since 2010 trailing only Tua Tagovailoa. Regardless, the clutch/big time moments trait tells us what happened within the context of Indiana’s magical season but the context of the NFL might be a different story.
Honorable Mentions: While Pavia might gain some supporters here, consider he was used mostly as a one-read passer at Vanderbilt relying heavily on screens and short area throws.
Pro Football Focus tracks “turnover-worthy” plays as a chance to cut through INT fortune. Any rate above 4% is worrisome
This is one of the areas that hurts Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson. In 2025, he was a turnover machine (12 INTs), and the Baylor spread offense he orchestrated has consistently failed to translate to the NFL. His gunslinger mentality could catch on as a backup in the right system, but Robertson will have to fix a number of accuracy issues. On 67% of his attempts were deemed “on-target,” which was the 11th best in class.
Sack Avoidance
While we all approach QBing as if we were playing Madden on our Xbox trying to go-for it on every single play, negative plays will not lead to a long NFL career.
There has been a lot of discourse in recent years about this subject but the main headline: sacks are a Quarterback Stat. Offensive line play is obviously a big part of the equation but sack avoidance is part of creating positive plays for your offense and not turnover or turnover on downs plays. I highly recommend this article from Kevin Cole on sack avoidance with prospects and Eric Eager’s on who controls pressure rates.
Here is the 2026 class and their corresponding pressure-to-sack ratios from the 2025 season:
King of the Class: Clemson’s Cade Klubnik sports the lowest pressure-to-sack ratio among this class. After garnering off-season Heisman hype, the Clemson Tigers nosedived to a 7-5 record, and Klubnik went from a potential first-round pick to likely a Day 3 selection. Nevertheless, he improved mightily in this area in his senior year dropping from 15% in 2024 to 11.3%. He remains fluid in play-action passing game and rollouts. Considering a quarter of NFL drop backs utilize play-action and the QB was under center on 58% of those plays, there is a place him as a “budget Bo Nix“, as we deemed in his scouting profile.
Honorable Mentions: Once again, Pavia shows up based on what he did on the field and what he avoided despite facing SEC defenses. Only 12.5% of his sacks taken were “QB-responsible” per PFF… Garrett Nussmeier‘s 2024 rate (9.8%) stands out in a season where he dropped back 553 times. He took only 15 total sacks and was thought of as being a surefire top-10 pick. Unfortunately, he suffered through an oblique injury and an altogether disappointing 2025 season at LSU as HC Brian Kelly was fired in November. He was reportedly one of the “risers” at the Senior Bowl likely warranting Day 2 draft capital albeit in a very weak class. His toughness and a quick trigger is a solid combination for an NFL QB but the ceiling feels low for fantasy considering he is a zero as a runner.
Mendoza‘s rate is worth mentioning as 26% of his pressures were deemed “QB-responsible”, an alarmingly high number when you stack it up against other 1st round QB prospects. In fact, the only 1st round QBs with a P2S% of 19+ % and 25+% QB responsibility include Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Kenny Pickett.
Despite being a precision passer and elite processor, the one area of concern on Mendoza’s tape was “stepping into sacks”. It is one thing to see pressure and avoid it; however, another layer for QBs who routinely make plays outside the pocket or live off hero ball moments are the sacks of no fault but their own. This is an area where QBs can improve. Caleb Williams went from a 30% pressure to sack ratio as a rookie (only Will Levis was worse) to only 10% in 2025, 3rd best in the NFL.
Rushing Upside
Beyond pure rushing production, we look at rushing yardage share and scramble rate as two of the biggest indicators that translate to fantasy success at the next level for mobile QBs. Obviously, without actual starts in the NFL, it is impossible to project that backup QBs drafted on Day 3 will have any fantasy relevance at all.
We looked at every 1st round QB drafted since 1995 (75+ different guys) and then narrowed that list to every QB that saw at least a 5 percent rush share in their best rushing season, a total of 40. That was the threshold I found where college rushing production dictated that they were likely to carry over into the NFL. You can also see the emphasis on dual-threat QBs over the last two decades where the “pro-style” drop-back passer of yesteryear slowly faded as a 1st round must at the position. However, the true fantasy difference-makers needed to see 18+ % of their team’s rushing yardage in their best season.
Keep in mind that total rushing yards in college differ than how they are calculated in the pros. Yards lost from sacks are taken into account in college which certainly makes this process not exactly apples to apples. However, it does highlight negative plays aspect and pressure to sack issues.
King of the Class: Taylen Green is the unicorn of this year’s class. As a runner, he stands out:
- 41 runs of 10+ yards- 2nd most among all FBS QBs in 2025
- 33.7% of team’s rushing yardage- 2nd highest among this year’s QB class
He would become one of 3 QBs drafted over the last decade with 2,400+ rushing yards and 35 rushing TDs in their college careers. Those QBs? 1st rounder Lamar Jackson, 2nd rounder Jalen Hurts, and 2020 7th rounder Malcolm Perry… He likely finds himself somewhere in-between as a developmental “toolsy” QB on Day 3 thanks accuracy issues abounding as a passer especially with a longer throwing motion.
Taylen Green is a QB prospect in the 2026 draft class. He scored an unofficial 9.99 RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 2 out of 1052 QB from 1987 to 2026.
Pending bench tomorrow and pro day, splits projected, times unofficial. https://t.co/yedtgoDP84 pic.twitter.com/XRk8N9gU3S
— RAS.football (@MathBomb) February 28, 2026
Honorable Mentions: With 31 career rushing TDs and the frame (6’3″, 232 lbs.) to withstand punishment, NDSU’s Cole Payton likely projects as a third-stringer with packages near the goal-line as a runner. We deemed him “low-calorie” Taysom Hill in our full scouting report. Despite the raw athleticism, he simply lacks the mechanics as a passer to progress at the next level, especially as a niche lefty… Ty Simpson might not look like a mobile threat. He didn’t scramble a ton but when he did, was effective… Diego Pavia truthers out there are screaming as he was a read option maven his final two years in the SEC including a team-leading 862 yards last year, good enough for 37.8% of the team’s rushing yardage. That figure is the highest among this year’s class..
There are moments when you can see Mendoza escape the pocket and take off with more than adequate speed for rushing to be a bonus at the next level. With a 7.7% scramble rate in 2025, he profiles as someone with rushing as a bonus, not necessarily a primary weapon. Think of how we look at QBs like Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy or even Bryce Young adding 10-15 yards a game on the ground for fantasy.
Experience
I open this final section with a simple exchange from Avengers: Infinity War:
Loki: I do have a bit of experience in that arena.
Thanos: If you call failure experience.
Loki: I call experience experience.
It may seem quite simple but the raw number of starts is a data point we have been honing in on the last couple of years. The classic “Bill Parcells Rule” put it at 30 collegiate starts. HOFer Drew Brees thinks it requires 50 “high-quality” starts to be ready. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler put out an article back in October about this year’s prospects before Oregon’s Dante Moore and South Carolina’s LeNorris Sellers returned to school. He concluded: “Realistically, there isn’t a magic number of starts QB prospects must reach, especially given the vast differences in competition levels from conference to conference in today’s college football landscape. Still, in general, data backs up common sense: The more starts, the better.”
A QB with more college starts has seen far more unique situations: different coverages, blitzes, hostile crowds, red-zone scenarios, and adversity. This helps them develop instincts that translate better to the faster, more complex NFL game. The start threshold that I’ve used historically is 30+
King of the Class: Carson Beck‘s 43 college starts including going 37-6 make him the most battle-tested of this year’s crew. It feels like Beck has been part of the college football conversation for a while as the backup on Georgia’s 2-time National Championship teams before being the starter for 2023 & 2024. He suffered a UCL injury in the 2024 SEC Championship Game which also redirected his plans for 2025 as he withdrew his name from the NFL Draft. A highly sought after name in the transfer portal, Beck responded with a career-high 30 passing TDs while unexpectedly leading Miami (FL) to the College Football Playoff Final. Despite being the subject of internet memes everywhere, Beck looks and smells like an NFL QB someone could take a chance on Day 3…
Honorable Mentions: Green‘s 46 starts technically lead the class After redshirting and two seasons as the starter at Boise State, Green entered the transfer portal landing in the SEC and started 24 games the past two seasons at Arkansas. The Razorbacks were god-awful this past season losing their final 9 games of the season but you could see the tools that might make him attractive as a developmental prospect at the next level… Pavia again ends up in the honorable mentions as his figure needs context. 21 of his 49 starts were at New Mexico Military Institute, a member of the Southwest Junior College Football Conference. Yet, his transition to the SEC was flawless from a production standpoint.
The biggest red flag in Simpson‘s profile is the lack of experience- 15 total starts. In this day and age of NIL, it is rare for someone to remain program-loyal waiting in the wings behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe. A number of QB evaluators have pointed this out when comparing to other historical prospects:
Since 2010, 23 QBs have been invited to the combine at age 22.5 or older with 20 or fewer games of experience.
Only Mitchell Trubisky, Ryan Tannehill, Mac Jones, and Davis Mills went within the first 120 picks.
Ty Simpson and Cole Payton are both in that bucket.
— Jim Sannes (@JimSannes) February 15, 2026