Here, we’ll go over eight early fantasy football average draft positions (ADP) I’m planning to track over the summer, as they raise an eyebrow one way or the other. I’m not ready to say these guys are overvalued or undervalued with certainty just yet, but they are players we should track and debate heavily over the next couple of months to iron out those takes.
Note: All ADP data comes from the FantasyPros half-PPR consensus as of this publication.
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Trey McBride, Cardinals (15th overall, TE1)
The harsh reality is that it’s going to be tough for Trey McBride to repeat as the TE1 overall, and therefore, make good on a top-15 overall ADP.
McBride ran 694 routes last season, over 60 more than any other wide receiver — his teammate Michael Wilson was second with 630. Even more shocking, it was over 120 more than the next-highest tight end, Travis Kelce, with 573. It would be a massive disappointment if Arizona, which was in a severe negative game script and was relentlessly dropping back to pass for well over half of the 2025 season, repeats those numbers. Not to mention, if Marvin Harrison Jr. is healthy this season after missing chunks of time and playing through the back-half of the season with a heel injury, targets won’t be consolidated between just McBride and Wilson. Arizona also added a special receiving back in Jeremiyah Love.
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The squeeze for targets and more competition won’t doom McBride’s production. He’s too good for that. But it will carve into his fantasy ceiling. Brock Bowers should be ranked as the TE1 ahead of McBride and even then, 15th overall might be a bit too rich for him, too.
Nico Collins, Texans (27th overall, WR11)
Collins was WR10 last year in points per game and generally kept pace with some of the non-elite WR1s from a scoring standpoint. His role as the X-receiver in Houston’s offense does make him a bit more boom or bust on a weekly basis than some can deal with but I have some hopes (based on their Year 2 receivers breaking into the full-time rotation) that he can move around more in 2026.
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My guess is that the last memory we have of C.J. Stroud is unfairly pushing down perceptions of the Texans offense, which has its frustrations regardless. Stroud was sandwiched between Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold in EPA per play among starting quarterbacks last year during the regular season. That’s a guy who is good enough to feed a WR1 the ball, at the very least. You can make a credible argument that Collins is just as good a or better bet as WRs Malik Nabers (17th overall), Rashee Rice (23rd), Drake London (24th) or George Pickens (26th).
Omarion Hampton, Chargers (18th overall, RB11)
It feels like a massive leap for Hampton to be this high in the running back rankings but it does make some sense. He was productive in a limited sample, finishing the season as the RB15 in points per game over nine contests. Hampton was also playing really well right before he went down with an injury. The Year 2 jump is very available to him and he is pretty uncontested as the clear lead back in Los Angeles.
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The Chargers hired Mike McDaniel as their offensive coordinator and he’s well-known for his prowess as a run-game designer. There’s also a strong argument that Hampton fits an outside zone run game, which McDaniel should employ, better than the gap-based design of Greg Roman’s desires.
Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers (ADP: 36th overall, WR15)
There’s no doubt Tetairoa McMillan was extremely productive relative to his environment in his first NFL season, where he ended up winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and clearing 1,000 yards receiving. I’m also a firm believer that McMillan could be more consistently productive if he’s moved around the formation more often and takes fewer reps as the X-receiver. We saw the fruits of that theory in his massive Week 11 game against the Falcons, where he caught three passes for 31 yards and a score from the slot. He averaged 2.0 yards per route run from the slot as a rookie. The Panthers’ drafting Chris Brazzell as a boundary stretch receiver should allow the rookie to take some sacrificial reps from the X and get McMillan into various alignments.
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Still, the biggest hurdle for McMillan will be his target ceiling and his quarterback’s ability. McMillan, for all his good last year, finished WR26 in fantasy. This ADP bakes in a considerable jump and that’s despite the fact that the Panthers have a legit WR2 in Jalen Coker and drafted Brazzell. McMillan isn’t a lock to push for a 28% target share on a Panthers team that’s been run-heavy in the past. In order for this to work, Bryce Young needs to take a massive leap after ranking 34th out of 42nd qualifying quarterbacks (500-plus snaps) in EPA per play since 2023. Even last year, Young ranked 27th out of 34 (minimum 300 snaps).
You better buy into some level of improvement to click McMillan at WR15.
TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots (RB23, 54th overall)
Maybe I’m just a complete patsy for this one but it’s difficult for me to get out of my head that the Patriots, during their run to the Super Bowl, gave TreVeyon Henderson 35 touches to 70 for Rhamondre Stevenson. Their snap rate was 31% for the rookie and 70.3% for the veteran.
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Stevenson, who goes over 20 picks later in ADP, is still on the roster and didn’t do much in the regular season or that playoff run to lose work this coming year. He took his 232 touches for 1,291 yards and Henderson took his 250 for 1,241. There’s a chance this split looks exactly like it did last year. Perhaps at RB23, that’s a fine enough range to take the risk that Henderson takes a massive Year 2 leap. The ceiling is certainly there, it’s just more theoretical and riskier than many want to admit.
Jaylen Waddle, Broncos (WR25, 55th overall)
As someone who wants to draft a lot of Jaylen Waddle in 2026, I’m hoping he stays at this range in ADP.
Waddle is one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL and is now about to see a serious bump in snaps and routes after playing on a slow-paced Dolphins team in 2025. He’s also just a really underrated player on film, with a more complete skill set than is credited.
I expect Waddle to clearly emerge as the movement player in this offense, getting a good mix of layup targets and downfield looks. He should be going ahead of several receivers in the WR17 to WR24 range.
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Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars (72nd overall, WR31)
You can essentially just use Thomas as a replacement for all the wideouts on this team.
The Jaguars’ wide receiver corps is going to be a source of much debate and fascination over the summer. On paper, they have four guys who have credible cases to see the field in Thomas, Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington and Travis Hunter (he will be playing plenty of offense — ignore the poorly aggregated reports).
There’s no shot that all of them can clear 70% route participation and it may even be a squeeze to get three of them north of 60% if the team moves to more multiple tight end looks, as the selection of Nate Boerkircher in Round 2 would signal.
So, if this is a heavy-personnel team with four viable receivers, and we know they want to lean on a strong ground game, the 2026 Jaguars could look like some of these Packers receiver rooms of the last few years, with heavy rotations and little to no predictable volume week-to-week. Theoretically, Thomas has the clearest X-receiver skill set to stay on the field for most of the downs, whether it’s 11-, 12- or 13-personnel. However, that is a big leap of faith in a player coming off a down season. WR31 isn’t the most frightening zone to take that jump.
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Kyler Murray, Vikings (107th overall, QB17)
I’ve been skeptical of Kyler Murray as a fantasy quarterback the last few years in an offense down in Arizona that didn’t fit his skill set. In Minnesota this year, especially at this ADP — I think I’m in.
As long as Murray is the starting quarterback in Minnesota, the odds are extremely strong that he beats this ADP. Murray has been a top-20 quarterback in EPA per play since 2023, while playing in a Drew Petzing offense that didn’t fit his game. Murray should be able to play at that level and retain some scrambling ability. That not only makes him a massive upgrade on what Minnesota rolled out in 2025 but also a pretty clear path to fringe QB1 output in this ecosystem.