Was Waiting on a QB Strategy Effective in 2025? (Fantasy Football)

Fantasy football experts have long advocated waiting to draft a quarterback in 1QB leagues. The depth and volatility at the position make waiting until the later rounds to draft a quarterback a viable option. However, that trend has had mixed opinions over the past few years, with some fantasy experts and players targeting an elite quarterback early in drafts.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Waiting on a Quarterback

So fantasy players want to know – was waiting on a quarterback an effective draft strategy in 2025? The answer is yes. However, how effective was the strategy? First, let’s look at how much injuries impacted the quarterback position.

The Injury Impact

Injuries are part of the game, including for quarterbacks, despite all the rules meant to protect them. Over 60 quarterbacks started a game during the 2023 season. Unfortunately, that number didn’t improve in 2024, as 59 quarterbacks started a game. Furthermore, 63 quarterbacks started at least one game last year, including Chris Oladokun and Brady Cook.

However, let’s dive a little deeper than that. Was there a higher number of quarterbacks injured last season than in the past? I decided to look back at the past nine years and see how many quarterbacks attempted a pass and how many had at least 100 attempts each season.

While 63 quarterbacks started a game last season, there wasn’t any meaningful change in the number of quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts or even one. Furthermore, the number of quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts has slightly declined for three consecutive years. Meanwhile, the jump in quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts was between 2021 and 2022, with a 10.6% increase, which lines up with the first few seasons of a 17-game schedule.

Over the past four years, there have been an average of 46.5 quarterbacks per season with at least 100 pass attempts and 77.8 with one attempt. By comparison, there was an average of 42.6 quarterbacks per season with at least 100 pass attempts and 71.8 with one attempt over the previous five years.

2025 Quarterback Review

Fantasy players who waited on a quarterback last season were more likely to win the league than those who spent an early-round pick on the position. There were multiple quarterbacks who were drafted early and finished inside the top five. However, several high-end QB1 finishers last year weren’t drafted inside the top 14. Let’s look at the data on how the quarterbacks ended the 2025 season.

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Baker Mayfield were the top seven quarterbacks in ADP last year. However, Allen was the only one to return value on his ADP. Hurts and Mayfield struggled but still finished as a QB1. Meanwhile, Jackson, Daniels, Burrow, and Mahomes each missed meaningful time with a significant injury.

More importantly, fantasy players found excellent value in the later rounds of their draft or off the waiver wire. Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, and Trevor Lawrence went undrafted in most 1QB leagues. Yet, all three finished inside the top four quarterbacks. Furthermore, Jaxson Dart and Jacoby Brissett were borderline must-start quarterbacks for parts of the season despite not getting any consideration during fantasy drafts.

It was a rough year for fantasy players who drafted a quarterback with a top-10 ADP. Josh Allen was worth his QB1 capital. Meanwhile, Bo Nix finished one spot higher than his ADP. However, fantasy players couldn’t trust him for most of the season. Unfortunately, the other eight quarterbacks selected with a top-10 ADP finished an average of 16.1 spots lower than they were drafted, including three players with a -24 or worse differential.

Furthermore, three of the top five quarterbacks in ADP were massive fantasy busts. Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow all finished at least 18 spots lower than their ADP. The trio finished 24.3 spots lower than their ADP on average. While Daniels and Burrow missed 19 combined games because of injury, Jackson only missed four contests. Yet, the superstar averaged only 14.2 fantasy points per game once returning to the lineup following a hamstring injury.

Meanwhile, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were two of the biggest steals in fantasy football last season. While Daniels and Nix got all the attention, their fellow second-year quarterbacks turned into fantasy stars. Williams finished as the QB5 after being drafted as the QB15 on average, while Maye finished as the QB2 despite getting drafted as the QB16 in the ADP.

2026 Late-Round Quarterback Draft Targets

After seeing the data from the 2025 season, fantasy players should feel confident that waiting on a quarterback in 2026 is a usable strategy. Injuries played somewhat of a role in the late-round quarterback draft strategy working last year. Yet, there is no reason not to expect a reasonably similar outcome this upcoming season.

Let’s look at five quarterbacks with an ADP outside the top 12 that fantasy players should target in their drafts this year.

Patrick Mahomes (KC) | ADP: QB13

Despite suffering a significant knee injury at the end of last year, Mahomes has participated in offseason workouts, putting him on pace to play in Week 1. Last year, the superstar was quietly one of the top quarterbacks in fantasy football despite never having a healthy receiving corps. He was the QB2 over the first 13 weeks, averaging 21.1 fantasy points per game, totaling 23.1 or more in eight of 12 contests. While Mahomes might get off to a slow start, expect him to have another top-10 finish in 2026.

Brock Purdy (SF) | ADP: QB14

Unfortunately, Purdy missed eight games last year because of injury. However, he has always finished as a top-10 quarterback on a points-per-game basis since his rookie season, including the QB6 last year. Furthermore, the former Mr. Irrelevant pick has averaged 1.8 touchdowns per game since taking over as the full-time starter, posting a 7% rate in two of three seasons, including 2025. The 49ers improved their receiving corps this offseason, adding Mike Evans and Christian Kirk. While he lacks top-three upside, Purdy is one of the safest quarterbacks to draft.

Tyler Shough (NO) | ADP: QB19

Shough was a league winner last year, ranking as the QB4 over the final six weeks, averaging 20.1 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he had four top-12 weekly finishes during that stretch despite totaling 35 or fewer pass attempts in 66.7% of the contests. More importantly, the Saints made him a massive fantasy winner this offseason. They improved the offensive line by signing David Edwards. New Orleans also added Travis Etienne Jr., Jordyn Tyson, and Bryce Lance to go with Chris Olave, giving Shough several options in the passing game.

Malik Willis (MIA) | ADP: QB21

While he has limited NFL experience, starting only six games in four years, Willis could become a fantasy star because of his legs. The veteran struggled in Tennessee. However, he was outstanding in his three starts with the Green Bay Packers, averaging 204 passing yards, a touchdown, seven rushing attempts for 58 yards, one score, and 23.3 fantasy points per game, totaling 25 or more twice. While the Dolphins have a lack of proven pass catchers, expect Willis to be a starting fantasy option because of his rushing abilities.

Geno Smith (NYJ) | ADP: QB29

Fantasy players will laugh at the thought of drafting Smith after the Las Vegas Raiders’ offense was a disaster last year. Yet, the belief around the league is that the veteran still has something left in the tank. Furthermore, he was productive as the Seattle Seahawks’ starter, averaging 17 fantasy points per game, finishing as a top-13 quarterback twice, including in 2024. The Jets quietly have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL and a talented receiving core. Smith could easily have a top-15 finish in New York.

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