In a lot of ways, this fantasy baseball season has felt like a fantasy football season. Five signature players are currently on the IL: Aaron Judge, Elly Da La Cruz, Garrett Crochet, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Tarik Skubal (hopefully back Sunday). Francisco Lindor got hurt early. Cal Raleigh slumped, then he got hurt, too. Hunter Brown, Roman Anthony, Cole Ragans, Max Fried, the beat goes on.
So the last thing anyone wanted to see was Shohei Ohtani hurt on Thursday. Thankfully, his knee issue appears to be minor.
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Ohtani knocked his 13th homer of the year Thursday as the Dodgers got past the Pirates, 8-6. Although Ohtani isn’t running much this year (six steals), he’s having a fine year at the plate: .305 average, 48 runs, 40 RBI. He’s currently the No. 10 hitter in banked 5×5 value.
What would make an Ohtani injury especially painful is the fact that he’s also been a Cy Young contender this year.
In a turn no one saw coming, Ohtani is the fourth-best fantasy pitcher at the moment, with six wins, 73 strikeouts and Whiffle Ball ratios (1.06 ERA, 0.94 WHIP).
Ohtani left Thursday’s game in the seventh inning with knee inflammation, but Dave Roberts played down the injury. It sounds like Ohtani could be back Friday. We can all exhale. Baseball needs its best players on the field.
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The Dodgers remain the most fascinating baseball team in the world. Lineup regulars Teoscar Hernández and Will Smith are currently on the IL, and in Smith’s case, it’s allowing Dalton Rushing to play. Smith has been slightly above average as the regular backstop (.249/.338/.382, six homers), but Rushing has actually been better in his spot duty (.277/.362/.536, eight homers). I have to replace Smith in one of my two-catcher leagues — I missed my targets the previous Sunday — and the options are not pretty. In a few other pools, I’m rolling out Rushing as long as he’s starting.
The rest of the lineup is a mix of surprising stars and slumping vets. Andy Pages leads the majors in RBI and is rocking a .282/.328/.519 slash, with 15 homers. He’s been one of the right answers of the season. Freddie Freeman is aging gracefully (139 OPS+ at age 36) and Max Muncy is still productive at age 35 (.266/.361/.512, 14 homers), a classic take-and-rake guy.
But it’s fair to look at this lineup and wonder what’s going on with Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker.
It’s no fun to say this, but Betts is a player in decline. His bat speed is well below average, and his sprint speed has also collapsed (he’s yet to steal a base this year). He still puts the ball in play regularly, but pitchers aren’t afraid to throw him strikes — his walk rate is down significantly. And while there’s a fair amount of bad luck tied to that .185/.255/.348 slash — the batted-ball data suggests he should be batting .264 and slugging .430 — his time as a yearly MVP candidate might be done for good. We say it often: player development isn’t always linear, but player decline almost always is.
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Tucker’s mediocre return is far more puzzling — he’s merely in his age-29 season. The Dodgers signed him to a four-year, $240 million deal over the winter, and even as it’s often prudent to fade fantasy stars who recently changed teams on a big contract, no one saw this nosedive coming. Tucker’s sitting on the worst slash of his career, a .237/.332/.382 line. He’s hit five homers, stolen five bases. His OPS+ is 35% lower than his career mean.
Tucker’s strikeout rate has risen this year and his chase rate — while still good — is worse than we’d expect. It’s shocking to see him barrel the ball so infrequently — he’s at 5.3% this year, almost half his career norm. It’s not a problem with platoon splits — Tucker’s actually been better against lefties this year.
He’s too young and too talented not to come around somewhat, even as the answers through 10 weeks are somewhat unsatisfying.
The L.A. story with the pitching staff is a similar one — a handful of injured guys. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Edwin DÃaz are all on the 60-day IL. The Dodgers have been saved by Yoshinobu Yamamoto dominating (2.68/0.918), Justin Wrobleski stepping up (scene wins, 2.95) and Ohtani having his best pitching season ever. Tanner Scott has been a decent replacement closer for DÃaz, but Emmet Sheehan (4.70) and Roki Sasaki (4.03) have been erratic at the back end of the rotation.
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As usual, the Dodgers can play the long game with their rotation. They have an eight-game lead in the NL West and are once again a playoff lock.
We should also acknowledge that the Pirates are a fun team this year, a game above .500 and just one game out of the NL Wild Card. They’ve got their own signature injury to deal with — breakout star Oneil Cruz (currently the No. 4 hitter in 5×5 value) has a fractured hand and will miss a month. Cruz is still striking out a lot, but he’s improved dramatically against left-handed pitching and his category juice (14 homers, 21 steals) is delightful. He’s also a plus-man for average, hitting a respectable .264.
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Jake Mangum is a surprise asset with Cruz hurt, as his role jumps from part-time player to essential regular. Mangum is batting .295 in limited time, with 10 steals in just 49 games. He’s played essentially a full season between Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh the last two years, and although he’s not a slugger, a .296 average and 38 steals will validate a fantasy spot. You can add Mangum in 96% of Yahoo leagues.
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If you prefer your fantasy pickups have more of a résumé, Nick Gonzales (29%) and Spencer Horwitz (20%) deserve a look. Gonzales is Pittsburgh’s answer to Ernie Clement, a versatile player who hits for a great average and not so much power. Horwitz is a fun player, a bat-flipping spectacle who’s at .291 with nine homers over 206 at-bats. The Pirates like to roll out a different lineup every day, but Gonzales and Horwitz are staples in the top five of the order.