We asked our collection of fantasy football experts to identify the running backs and wide receivers inside the top 100 of consensus ADP they’re fading in 2026 drafts and explain why these players carry more risk than reward at their current cost.
Fantasy Football Players Experts Avoid
Which one RB inside the top 100 in our consensus ADP do you plan to avoid in all your drafts, given their price, and why?
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
“Perhaps a popular choice, but the correct one, will be Christian McCaffrey. Yes, McCaffrey managed to stay healthy in 2025 en route to an RB1 finish. That is wonderful. But McCaffrey now goes into his age-30 season off the back of a 400+ touch campaign and no signs that San Francisco is even remotely contemplating limiting his usage. A good thing for fantasy managers, if all goes well, yes, but it is the “all goes well” part that is the issue. The odds McCaffrey stays healthy for a second straight campaign are about the same as his getting hurt, and at the current 1.06 and RB3 in half-PPR ADP, that is a hard pass.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“Christian McCaffrey led the NFL in touches with 450 (including the playoffs). In the last 13 years, only one of those RBs was a top-5 fantasy RB the next year…after seeing 400-plus touches. Only one of those RBs was a top-5 fantasy RB the next year (a 24-year-old LaDainian Tomlinson). Only two RBs finished as RB1s (top-12) the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. RBs aged 27+ who led the NFL in touches: 6 times and zero top-5 finishes the following year. McCaffrey is also officially 30 years old now. His rushing efficiency fell off in 2025: He was PFF’s second-lowest-graded rusher in 2025 among 58 qualifiers, posted a career-low yards per attempt (3.8), and ranked 4th-lowest in rush yards over expectation per attempt. CMC has led the NFL in touches twice. His fantasy finishes AFTER those seasons: 53rd and 72nd.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
The Dolphins’ offense is a major work in progress. They’re in the middle of a total rebuild. Their new starting QB is Malik Willis. Maybe Willis will work out, but I’m not optimistic. I thought Miami overpaid for him. In addition, Willis will be working behind a shaky offensive line. The departures of electric playmakers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle loom large. There are a lot of moving parts in Miami, and I think that could spell trouble for De’Von Achane. With a current consensus ranking at RB 7, I want no part of Achane or the Dolphins’ offense in 2026.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Aaron Jones (RB – MIN)
“The obvious answers are Christian McCaffrey and De’Von Achane. But we are also avoiding Aaron Jones again this year. Too much competition from in our view a superior back Jordan Mason.”
– Fantasy Football Goonz (Fantasy Football Goonz)
Jadarian Price (RB – SEA)
“I’m unwilling to pay the iron price for Jadarian Price. I can understand the zeal for a first-round running back selected by a seemingly RB-needy team that likes to run the ball, but this feels like Rashaad Penny redux. Penny was a former first-round pick who never got real traction in Seattle because Chris Carson was better. Price might be better than Penny, but is he better than Zach Charbonnet, who’ll eventually be back from a torn ACL? Maybe, but Price’s prospect profile is largely projection, since he was Jeremiah Love’s backup at Notre Dame. Price isn’t much of a pass catcher, and it’s unclear whether he’ll have early-down work mostly to himself until Charbonnet’s return. And while first-round rookie RBs are generally good bets, the hit rate is much, much higher for early first-rounders than late first-rounders. I’d rather spend an early-sixth-round pick on Rome Odunze or Christian Watson, the two WRs directly behind Price in ADP.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
Travis Etienne (RB – NO)
“Travis Etienne excelled last year as the Jags RB1 with an RB13 finish in fantasy points per game. Etienne was disappointing on a per-touch basis, ranking 37th in explosive run rate, 31st in missed tackle rate, and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Those metrics are worrisome, as is Alvin Kamara still remaining on the New Orleans roster. Early in the offseason, I liked Etienne as a volume bet at running back in an ascending Saints offense, but I worry that Kamara will cut into his volume. Kamara is easily the best receiver of the two despite not being at the height of his powers anymore. If Kamara can heavily cut into Etienne’s receiving work and red zone usage, he could disappoint this season.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“I’m a little scared to click on Travis Etienne at this current Round 3 cost. The expectation all offseason was that Alvin Kamara wouldn’t be with the Saints in 2026, but it now appears he’ll still have a role in this offense. How big a role? That’s the question that could make or break Etienne’s fantasy season. Last year, Etienne averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game (RB13), but it took 296 touches and a career-high 13 touchdowns to get there. His EPA was an abysmal -23.3, 145th among skill position players, and he averaged only 0.81 fantasy points per opportunity, 32nd among running backs. If Kamara eats into Etienne’s volume, Etienne will have a tough time paying off his RB17 price tag.”
– Wolf Trelles-Heard (FantasyPros)
Kenneth Walker III (RB – KC)
“I am not touching Kenneth Walker at his ADP of RB11. I fully understand that he checks all the boxes for a great season: he is talented, explosive, and is now paired with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes with minimal competition for touches. That said, the Chiefs are a smart organization that is trying to win Super Bowls. As a result, I can’t see them ignoring how Seattle’s controlled usage from last year led to Walker becoming the Super Bowl MVP. Last year, Zach Charbonnet had a career high in touches, and it was also the first year that Walker played all 17 games. As a result, despite being the unquestioned backfield leader, I can see another season where Walker managers are cursing the involvement of the second back (Emmett Johnson). Even if Walker does get all the touches we are dreaming of, can he stay healthy? I very well may be wiping egg from my face if he has a top 5 season; however, I don’t think his situation and workload are as clear-cut as many believe.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
“Kenneth Walker III (RB11, 18 overall) is a very good running back who had an excellent postseason during the Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl run. He was able to parlay that into a 3-year, $43 million contract with the Kansas City Chiefs. While Kansas City seems to be a great landing spot for a player, it should be noted that they haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since 2017, which was the season before Mahomes took over as quarterback, which could be a reason for a less run-focused attack. Walker has never finished above running back #18 (half PPR). All those factors, plus the fact that 2025 was his first season playing all 17 games, make Kenneth Walker III a player that owners should avoid at his relative cost.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
Jeremiyah Love (RB – ARI)
“I just can’t bring myself to click on Jeremiyah Love at his current price. Of course, rookie backs are normally premium assets in redraft leagues because of their unknown capabilities at the NFL level. But there is just too much working against the RB13 by consensus ADP this season. First, he’s on a terrible team that is sure to lose a ton of games. That means more necessary pass-first scripts. Next, Love is mired in a backfield of very capable backs that are likely to siphon touches here and there, and especially so in the passing game if he struggles at all with protections. Third, Love faces the 2nd-most difficult schedule for any RB in the league, according to the FantasyPros Strength of Schedule marker. He’ll also likely face one or even multiple quarterback changes throughout the season as things go south and the Cards turn to Gardner Minshew or want to take a look at rookie Carson Beck. And, to top it all off, Nathanial Hackett is his Offensive Coordinator. None of these on their own is a deterrent to drafting Jeremiyah Love. But together, it’s a massive red flag. I’m out on Love in the late 2nd/early 3rd right now, and I’ll take another back like Breece Hall or a stud wideout or TE there instead.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
Bucky Irving (RB – TB)
“Bucky Irving is the one RB inside the top 100 I’m avoiding at cost. His ADP at 57 assumes a level of weekly stability that won’t hold up against a brutal 2026 schedule, especially early against multiple top‑10 run defenses. He’s a strong player, but he’s priced like a steady RB2 while carrying flex‑level volatility. With Jadarian Price, Chuba Hubbard, and RJ Harvey available later and offering cleaner paths to consistent usage, Irving becomes an easy fade at his current cost.”
– Lawrence Iacona (The Architect’s War Room)
Ashton Jeanty (RB – LV)
“Ashton Jeanty is someone I will not be drafting anywhere near the 1st or 2nd round, even 3rd round if he falls that far. Jeanty was a disaster as a rookie in the NFL last season. BEAST DOME was the only site to rank Jeanty outside of the top 20 RBs in 2025. Just because the Raiders added Kirk Cousins, a Pro Bowl center, and a coach who knows what he is doing, does not mean Ashton Jeanty is going to put up massive fantasy points. The Raiders are still an awful offense, Ashton Jeanty is hardly a RB2 I want on my fantasy roster this season.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
Which one WR inside the top 100 in our consensus ADP do you plan to avoid in all your drafts, given their price, and why?
Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)
“Michael Wilson proved last season that he’s a good player, but he feasted in games that Marvin Harrison Jr. missed and was fantasy-irrelevant when MHJ played. There were six games last season in which Harrison either sat out or played one-third of Arizona’s offensive snaps due to injury. Wilson averaged 12.2 targets, 8.3 catches, 107.0 yards, and 0.7 touchdowns in those contests. In the 11 games Harrison played in full, Wilson averaged 4.8 targets, 2.5 catches, 33.1 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns. The Cardinals led the NFL in pass attempts last season and aren’t likely to be as pass-happy after drafting a running back No. 3 overall. Wilson isn’t likely to pay off on a top-100 pick.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“At first glance, Michael Wilson at WR38 might seem like a bargain. After all, he finished as the overall WR10 in 2025. I just don’t see a world where the circumstances that led to his blowup happen again. Wilson needed Marvin Harrison Jr. to miss several games with various ailments and had to run 602 routes to pop off. Only Ja’Marr Chase (619) ran more routes at the receiver position. Wilson also didn’t log his first game with more than 10 PPR fantasy points until Week 11 last season. Before that, when Harrison was mostly healthy, Wilson averaged just 5.7 fantasy points per game. When everyone is on the field, Wilson is — at best — the third option in this passing attack, and I’d rather take shots on guys ranked directly behind him, like Quentin Johnston, Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Michael Pittman, and Wan’Dale Robinson.”
– Wolf Trelles-Heard (FantasyPros)
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
“The stock is falling, but Malik Nabers is still a no-go even as the WR17 player overall 39 in half-PPR ADP. The talent is undeniable; if Malik Nabers is healthy, he is a star and should be treated as such. Nabers is, however, coming off a major injury in 2025, and it is very reasonable to expect that the Giants will be cautious in how they bring Nabers back into the fold. This is a situation that is worth monitoring as we approach drafts, because there will be a range where Nabers simply becomes too affordable to pass up on, even with the concerns. For now, though, at a top-20 valuation, Nabers is a fade for 2026.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“There’s just no world where I’m drafting Malik Nabers this season. Even at WR17 prices, his prolonged injury recovery this offseason has been immensely concerning, and it’s even made me pivot away from him. Right now, Nabers is going in the early 4th round ahead of teammate Cam Skattebo and wide receivers like Tet McMillian and Garrett Wilson. It is impossible for me to justify banking on the risk that comes with Nabers right now ahead of these players, and others behind them. The talent is immense. His rookie season was phenomenal. And I hope he proves me wrong. But it’s been really bad vibes all through the Spring, and nothing has happened to assuage those concerns. Unless he falls dramatically, he’s practically off my boards in 2026.”
– Jeremy Shulman (Fantasy Football Universe)
“Malik Nabers remains an elite talent, but his 2026 outlook is heavily tied to recovery from a complicated September ACL injury that wiped out nearly all of his sophomore season. Before going down, Nabers was producing like a fantasy WR1 in the Giants’ offense. The concern isn’t ability; it’s availability, especially after requiring a second procedure during rehab. Nabers still offers potential league-winning upside once fully healthy, but fantasy managers should build in the expectation of missed time (very likely to start the year on the PUP) and a slower early-season ramp-up. Returning to the field of play and returning to elite production aren’t the same. His draft price needs to come down outside the top-20 WRs. Keep in mind that this will be a new Giants offense (potentially run-first) for Nabers, led by the uninspiring retread OC Matt Nagy. Doesn’t help the wideout either that he is missing valuable reps with his second-year QB, Jaxson Dart, whom he played one game last year (the game he also got hurt in).”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Malik Nabers is coming off two surgeries to repair his torn ACL. There is zero chance he’ll be 100% at any part of the 2026 season. The word on the street is that the Giants are worried he won’t be ready for Week 1. They didn’t sign WRs Darnell Mooney and Juju Smith-Schuster because they like their sense of humor. Respectfully, many of my peers in the fantasy industry are having a difficult time grasping just how brutal an injury this is because they have never had to rehab from it. I have, and I’m telling you there is no way Nabers should be anywhere close to a top twenty WR in 2026, at least in my humble opinion. Bust.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Parker Washington (WR – JAC)
“We want nothing to do with Parker Washington. We think he ends up as the 5th option in the Jags passing attack. We don’t believe Travis Hunter is done yet, and 2026 is a new year.”
– Fantasy Football Goonz (Fantasy Football Goonz)
Tetairoa McMillan (WR – CAR)
“My avoidance of Tetairoa McMillan in drafts this season isn’t related to McMillan’s talent at all. It’s a bet against a low-volume passing offense and Bryce Young. This offseason, Carolina added Chris Brazzell to the wide receiver room, and they should have a healthy Jalen Coker all season. Last year, Coker wasn’t a full-time player until Week 8 as he was returning from an injury during the early portion of the season. All of these factors could equal a smaller piece of an already child-sized pie for McMillan to feast on. Bryce Young wasn’t allowed to sling it around the yard last season, and I don’t see that changing in 2026 as Carolina will again lean on their ground game and defense to grind out wins. Last year, in Weeks 3-18, Bryce Young surpassed 35 passing attempts only once; he had more than 225 passing yards only twice, and in eight of those 14 games, he had 25 or fewer passing attempts. During the same stretch, Carolina was fifth in neutral rushing rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With more weapons to get the ball to in Carolina in 2026 and a volume-limited passer, McMillan will struggle to pay off his draft cost.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Chris Olave (WR – NO)
“I don’t think I have cooled off on a player more than I have on Chris Olave this offseason. It was amazing to see the 11th overall pick in 2022 finally have the full season we had been hoping for, where he was the WR6 overall. Believe it or not, his history of concussions has nothing to do with avoiding him. The risk of concussion is only exponentially increased after one has been suffered. After a full season, I am more concerned about the reported blood clots. It’s not only health that worries me, but what if Tyler Shough is not as good as we think? We have seen surprising rookie seasons from QBs that come crashing back to earth once teams have film. For example, Dak Prescott and CJ Stroud, among others. Plus, I really like what Jordan Tyson can bring to this team. All in all, we need a massive season from Shough and a healthy season from Olave to pay off his ADP of WR11. That seems like a big ask in my opinion.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
“Rashee Rice is the one WR inside the top 100 I’m avoiding at cost. His ADP at 28 is far too high given the uncertainty surrounding his 2026 role and the real possibility of missed time. He’s a talented player, but the market is drafting him based on nostalgia, hope, and hype rather than a stable projection. With added target competition and a volatile weekly floor, I cannot justify drafting him at that price.”
– Lawrence Iacona (The Architect’s War Room)
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
“Garrett Wilson is not going to be on any of my teams. Talent is not a problem for Garrett; the problem is that Geno Smith is his QB. Geno killed all Raiders values last season; now he is bringing his tour to New York to kill all Jets values across the board. Garrett Wilson has to be a garbage-time savior, but with two new rookies and a rising AD Mitchell on the other side, there are not enough footballs to go around. Garrett Wilson is at best a great WR3 in Fantasy. Unfortunately, he is being drafted in the early rounds and will not be on any of my rosters.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
“CeeDee Lamb (WR6, #11 overall) is a top-end talent who has been a constant 1,000-yard receiver, averaging around 6 touchdowns every year. He is on a great passing offense and will see many targets. There are two main reasons owners should avoid him this year. The first is George Pickens, who came on last year and will be playing for a long-term contract, meaning he will demand the ball, which Dak Prescott could very well send his way. The other is not based on Lamb’s talent, but it overall draft ranking. He is currently WR6, being drafted 11th overall. Based on his average output, owners could grab a higher-ceiling running back (Aston Jeanty, Omarion Hampton) early in the draft and select a player that will match Lamb’s output later in the draft, like the aforementioned George Pickens, Rashee Rice, or Devonta Smith.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
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