Photo By – Reuters Connect. Milwaukee Brewers second baseman Brice Turang (2) is greeted by third base coach Matt Erickson after hitting a solo home run
Happy Monday, everyone!
A new week brings a ton of opportunities, and tonight’s MLB moneyline predictions are no exception.
Let’s dive into the full slate with my MLB picks on Monday, July 27!
MLB moneyline picks for July 27
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 7-27.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 27
Mariners vs Rangers: Rangers (+125)
Rangers win probability: 44%
I get to back an offense with a 135 wRC+, .365 wOBA, and .837 OPS over its last six games against one with a 93 wRC+, .108 ISO, and .674 OPS, all at plus money? Yeah, give me the Rangers in this spot.
The Mariners have posted a wRC+ below 100 for more than a month now, while the Rangers have been on an absolute tear offensively.
Kumar Rocker has shown flashes throughout the season, and he’ll do enough to keep Seattle’s lineup in check. With the way Texas is swinging the bats right now, plus money is too good to pass up.
Orioles vs Tigers: Orioles (-111)
Orioles win probability: 52%
Keider Montero has been solid for the Tigers over his last few outings, but so has Kyle Bradish. I think this one comes down to which offense I trust more, and that’s Baltimore’s.
Over their last 12 games, the Orioles own a 113 wRC+, .334 wOBA, and .745 OPS, while continuing to swing the bats at a much more consistent level.
As for the Tigers, they’ve been one of baseball’s most inconsistent offenses all season. I want no part of trying to time when that lineup is going to break out, especially against a pitcher like Bradish. Give me the better offense in what I expect to be a tightly contested game.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates: Diamondbacks (+111)
Diamondbacks win probability: 48%
It’s a battle of mid-tier starters as Merrill Kelly and Mitch Keller square off this evening. Similar to the rest of the teams I’m backing today, I want the hotter offense, and that’s Arizona. The Diamondbacks have completely flipped the switch over the last few weeks, swinging the bats with confidence.
Meanwhile, the Pirates have gone ice cold over their last six games, posting a 68 wRC+, .262 wOBA, and .092 ISO.
I’ll gladly take the plus money underdog in a matchup where I trust the hotter lineup to make the difference.
Phillies vs Marlins: Marlins (+170)
Marlins win probability: 37%
The Phillies are coming off an 11-run outburst against the Yankees last night, and I have a rule to fade teams immediately after massive offensive performances. Sure, the Marlins haven’t been the sexiest team to back since June, but I have no interest in laying money with a team that just scored nearly two touchdowns worth of runs.
I’ll take my chances fading the offensive regression in this spot.
Blue Jays vs Nationals: Nationals (-115)
Nationals win probability: 54%
The old man is on the mound against one of the hottest lineups in baseball, and I want the Nationals in this spot.
Not only have the Blue Jays’ bats gone ice cold, but they’re also sending Max Scherzer to the mound to stop the bleeding. That hasn’t gone well this season. Scherzer owns a 10.23 ERA, 5.58 xERA, and 1.73 WHIP, and he hasn’t looked like the pitcher he once was.
Andrew Alvarez hasn’t exactly been lights out for Washington either, but the Nationals offense has been swinging it well, while Toronto’s lineup has looked lifeless. I’ll gladly back the hotter offense at plus money in this matchup.
Guardians vs Reds: Reds (-156)
Reds win probability: 61%
Not a fan of laying this much juice with a team like the Reds, but when Slade Cecconi is on the mound, it’s tough not to fade him.
The Guardians right-hander owns a 7.43 ERA and 2.02 WHIP over his last three starts, while allowing a 55% hard-hit rate and 12% barrel rate. That’s a recipe for disaster, especially in a hitter-friendly park like Great American Ball Park.
On the other side, Chase Burns has done an excellent job protecting his home field this season, posting a 2.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at Great American Ball Park. I don’t love the price, but this is a matchup where I’ll happily side with Cincinnati.
Braves vs Mets: Mets (+104)
Mets win probability: 49%
With Martin Perez posting a 5.40 ERA, 6.46 xERA, and 1.57 WHIP over his last three outings, I was already leaning toward the Mets. Then I looked at how sustainable Zac Thornton has been, and it only strengthened my confidence in backing New York at home tonight.
Neither offense has been setting the world on fire lately, but the Mets have been generating much more hard contact while also drawing significantly more walks. I think those extra baserunners, combined with the pitching edge, make the Mets the right side in Queens tonight.
Yankees vs White Sox: Yankees (-135)
Yankees win probability: 57%
The White Sox exploded for 12 runs on Sunday afternoon against the Astros to avoid the series sweep. Now they welcome the New York Yankees to town.
Chicago will send Noah Schultz to the mound, and he has been hit hard all season. Over his last three starts, Schultz owns a 6.59 ERA, 6.89 xERA, and 1.83 WHIP.
Neither offense has been lighting it up, especially if you take away Chicago’s 12-run outburst. Max Fried should give the Yankees a significant edge on the mound, and I also like fading the White Sox after such a massive offensive performance. That’s enough for me to lean with New York in this spot.
Cubs vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+106)
Cardinals win probability: 48%
David Peterson is not a pitcher I’m willing to back as a favorite, especially while posting a 6.46 ERA, 6.29 xERA, and 1.44 WHIP over his last three outings. This isn’t me saying Matthew Liberatore is some elite arm, because he isn’t, but I do think he’s the better pitcher in this matchup.
The Cubs offense has been humming over the last month, but I’m not willing to trust Peterson to keep any lineup in check for five innings right now. At this price, I’ll gladly take my chances fading him.
Astros vs Angels: Astros (-106)
Astros win probability: 52%
I am aware that Astros right-hander Tatsuya Imai has been a bit rocky, but he’s still a strikeout machine, and we all know the Angels love to swing and miss.
On top of that, Houston’s offense has started to heat up over the last few weeks. After getting embarrassed by the White Sox, who hung two touchdowns on them Sunday, I expect the Astros to bounce back in a big way.
I like Houston to respond with a much better performance tonight.
Red Sox vs Athletics: Athletics (+160)
Athletics win probability: 38%
Price-wise and straight up, I want the Athletics. Sure, the Red Sox have been one of the best stories in baseball over the last month, but they simply have not been scoring runs consistently. If the Athletics can jump on left-hander Payton Tolle early, they have a great chance to come away with the win.
On top of that, I have no interest in laying -163 with an offense that owns an 80 wRC+, .291 wOBA, and .138 ISO over its last week. At this price, I’ll gladly take the value with the A’s.
Brewers vs Giants: Brewers (-125)
Brewers win probability: 56%
Brewers right-hander Brandon Sproat hasn’t been particularly sharp over his last three outings, posting a 5.60 xERA and 1.71 WHIP. On the other side, Tyler Mahle has been solid enough, but nothing that really moves the needle.
Tonight in the Bay, I want to back the far better offense, and that’s Milwaukee. The Brewers have been seeing the ball much better lately, while the Giants have posted a wRC+ below 100 with a strikeout rate north of 26% over their last six games.
Getting the Brewers at -125 feels like a steal in my book.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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