Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day’s slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today’s MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.
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Pitchers to stream on Saturday
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The Chicago White Sox are developing the reputation for getting more from their pitchers, with Adrian Houser an example. Seven of his eight outings are quality starts. Houser’s 4.06 xFIP and 4.46 SIERA indicate his 1.56 ERA is due for a steep uptick, but with the White Sox visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates, the veteran is probably safe for at least one more start as he’ll face a lineup with the second lowest wOBA versus right-handers.
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Emmet Sheehan hasn’t thrown more than 80 pitches in any of his three outings, but working as a traditional starter coming out of the break suggests that the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to take off the kid gloves, beginning with Saturday at home against the Milwaukee Brewers. Sheehan fanned 13 with just four walks over 13 1/3 innings in three efforts heading into the break. The Brewers don’t strike out much, but their home run output is well below average, so Sheehan has a shot at a quality start.
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Yu Darvish stretched out to 82 pitches in his last start before the break. He was touched for four runs in 4 2/3 innings, but he’s poised for a strong second half. His first post-break outing is a road start against the Washington Nationals and the 10th lowest wOBA facing right-handers.
Pitchers to avoid on Saturday
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In a classic case of something must give, Shota Imanaga will take the hill in Wrigley Field against the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox strike out a lot, favoring the Chicago Cubs lefty. However, the visitors sport a top five wOBA facing southpaws, making it risky to roll with Imanaga.
Saturday’s best matchups for pitchers
Seattle Mariners pitchers vs. Houston Astros hitters
Offense: B | Park: A+ | Umpire: B | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.47 ERA in this matchup.
Texas Rangers pitchers vs. Detroit Tigers hitters
Offense: C | Park: A | Umpire: B | Temperature: B- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would post a 3.92 ERA in this matchup.
Kansas City Royals pitchers vs. Miami Marlins hitters
Offense: B | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would post a 4.06 ERA in this matchup.
Saturday’s worst matchups for pitchers
Colorado Rockies pitchers vs. Minnesota Twins hitters
Offense: D | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Home
The average pitcher would post a 6.14 ERA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Colorado Rockies hitters
Offense: B | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: D | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.79 ERA in this matchup.
Boston Red Sox pitchers vs. Chicago Cubs hitters
Offense: F | Park: B | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: F | Away
The average pitcher would post a 5.75 ERA in this matchup.
Hitters to stream on Saturday
Saturday’s best matchups for hitters
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Twins pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .373 wOBA in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: A | Bullpen: C | Park: A+ | Umpire: D | Framing: B | Temperature: A | Wind: B | Away
The average hitter would post a .381 wOBA in this matchup.
Chicago Cubs LHB vs. Red Sox pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Framing: D | Temperature: B | Wind: A+ | Home
The average hitter would post a .354 wOBA in this matchup.
Saturday’s worst matchups for hitters
Toronto Blue Jays RHB vs. Giants pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: D | Park: C | Umpire: D | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: B | Home
The average hitter would post a .280 wOBA in this matchup.
Detroit Tigers RHB vs. Rangers pitchers
SP: D | Bullpen: A+ | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .282 wOBA in this matchup.
Houston Astros RHB vs. Mariners pitchers
SP: B | Bullpen: D | Park: F | Umpire: D | Framing: F | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter would post a .286 wOBA in this matchup.
Betting tips
Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Saturday’s top home run prop bets
Brenton Doyle | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Projection: 14% chance of this bet hitting, with a $29.60 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the best hitting conditions on the schedule.
Ryan McMahon | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.84 EV
One reason to bet this: In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the best hitting conditions on the schedule.
Lawrence Butler | OVER 0.5 HR (+475)
Projection: 19% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.29 EV
One reason to bet this: Butler has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLBs third-shallowest LF fences.
Saturday’s top pitcher prop bets
Clay Holmes | UNDER 4.5 K (+110)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.72 EV
One reason to bet this: Manny Gonzalez projects as a Hitters Umpire and is anticipated to be behind the plate in this game.
Eric Lauer | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.15 EV
One reason to bet this: Lauer has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to strikeouts this year, compiling a 9.49 K/9 despite estimating his true talent level to be 8.44 — a 1.05 K/9 gap.
Kumar Rocker | OVER 4.5 K (-120)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.26 EV
One reason to bet this: The Globe Life Field roof figures to be closed, making conditions in this game 12 degrees colder than the average outdoor game of the day — favorable for pitching.
