How unlikely was this matchup?
Super Bowl LX is the unlikeliest matchup of all time based on pre-season odds, with Seattle +6000 and New England +8000
It is the second-least likely match-up in major North American sports history, after the 1991 World Series between Minnesota (+8000) and Atlanta (+20000)
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— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) January 26, 2026
For all the Chiefs we’ve analyzed over the last couple of years, this is refreshing and one we will analyze over the next two weeks.
The First Look article gives you a taste of the slate and some of the more intriguing salaries that DraftKings releases. The goal is to identify early-week cash game considerations, as well as potential tournament plays before we piece together the stacking options. We share some of these insights on the Fantasy Footballers DFS & Betting Podcast if you want further commentary on some of the salary standouts.
Check back next week when Matthew Betz and I share our official DraftKings and FanDuel picks for cash and GPPs exclusively in the DFS Pass.
Super Bowl LX Matchup
The total is a bit surprising to me considering how solid both defenses are against the pass. It would not shock me if this was hammered to 44 or 44.5 at the end of next week. Klint Kubiak has shown the propensity to slow the game down as the Seahawks rank #1 in rush rate (48.6%), #1 in 2nd half rush rate (50.9%), and 2nd in rush rate (57.1%) inside the red zone. New England games averaged 47.6 combined points per game (12th most) but it’s not based on the conventional way of play volume. Despite ranking 28th in seconds per play, their PROE (+5.4%) allowed an off-the-charts season for Drake Maye, who led the league in completion percentage (72%).
Efficiency is the name of the game for both teams with both ranking in the top-10 of EPA per play on the season. At first glance, I have trouble seeing either team establishing the run the way they’d prefer but I do need to bring up the elephant in the room: both teams also turn the ball over way more than you’d imagine for a Super Bowl matchup. Sam Darnold led the NFL in total turnovers (20) and Drake Maye‘s 23 “QB-responsible sacks” also led the league. Seattle’s running game was fairly inefficient on a per touch basis and New England had issues on the offensive line for part of the year. Both teams were bailed out by explosive runs, JSN morphing into a true alpha, and defenses that routinely were shutting down big plays.
I will dive deeper into the matchup in the Pace of Play article which comes out next week.
Showdown Strategy Thoughts
Playing a Showdown slate is incredibly different than the DFS you have likely been soaking up for the last few months of football.
What site am I playing on? DraftKings “captain spot” operates on a premium salary basis by multiplying the player’s salary times 1.5 and their fantasy points by 1.5. On FanDuel, the “MVP” spot only is a point multiplier. Thus, we can’t always compare apples to apples across both sites. There is an opportunity cost playing Jaxon Smith-Njigba at $11,600 on DK knowing you likely will have to find a cheap option somewhere on your roster. However, on FanDuel, it is just a straight salary game and finding the highest points per dollar.
Do I need to look at positions? Because Showdown slates deal with every single player as a FLEX, it can be easy to disregard traditional position allocation in DFS. Theoretically, you could have Sam Darnold with three Seahawks with him and not even think twice about it. But the combinations are endless despite only having to fulfill six spots.
Who is your captain? Guess this right, and you, my friends, have simply opened the first door to taking down a tournament. The multiplier of 1.5 tells a partial story as CPT roster percentages need to be taken into account. Here is a rough projection of what historically DraftKings Showdown games like this one look like:
- QBs- 45+ %
- RB1s- 15-20 %
- RB2s- < 5 %
- WR1s- 20 %
- WR2s- < 5 %
- TEs- < 5 %
- DSTs- < 5 %
The WR2 options are where you gain the most leverage and are one of my favorite spots to attack on Showdown slates, especially on a full PPR site with bonuses like DraftKings.
What type of game script are you running with? I will discuss all the different outcomes in the Pace of Play article coming out this next week.
DraftKings Salaries
Quick Player Thoughts
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