Eric Rosales
• Betting Analyst
27+ years betting experience
Updated:
Mar 13, 2026 , 08:50 PM ET
• 4 min read
Rosales’ prediction: Defense wins out on Saturday.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Vermont Catamounts guard TJ Hurley (3) dribbles the ball.
They are the cream of the American East Conference crop, so it’s only fitting that the top-ranked UMBC Retrievers face the No. 2 Vermont Catamounts for the right to go to the NCAA Tournament.
Their previous two matchups this season have been rockfights, so my Vermont vs. UMBC predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, March 14 is calling for more defense to keep the score Under the total.
Vermont vs UMBC prediction
Vermont vs UMBC best bet
Vermont vs UMBC best bet: Under 137 (-110)
The Under has gone 7-2-1 in the last 10 head-to-heads, and the beat should go on.
UMBC has ripped off 11 wins in a row and hasn’t lost since a 64-55 L against Vermont on January 29.
The Catamounts have eight wins in their last nine, with the only blemish against the Retrievers in a 75-62 drubbing on Feb 19.
These are the top-scoring defenses in America East: UMBC allows 67.3 points per game, with Vermont at 68.4.
The Retrievers haven’t let an opponent touch 70 points in 13 straight, and the Catamounts just once in the last nine.
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Vermont vs UMBC same-game parlay
Yes, UMBC has been cruising, going 10-1-0 ATS in the last 11 games, failing to cover just once in a game against Albany.
But Vermont has owned this head-to-head, taking eight of the last 10 matchups straight up. They’re the last team to beat UMBC, and have the defensive chops to win in a slugfest.
Vermont vs UMBC SGP
- Under 137
- Vermont moneyline
Vermont vs UMBC odds
- Spread: Vermont +3 | UMBC -3
- Moneyline: Vermont +125 | UMBC -167
- Over/Under: Over 137 | Under 137
Vermont vs UMBC betting trend to know
Each of Vermont’s last six games have produced a total of 137 or fewer points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Vermont vs. UMBC.
How to watch Vermont vs UMBC
| Location | Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena, Baltimore, MD |
| Date | Saturday, March 14, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 11:00 a.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Vermont vs UMBC key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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