When looking at average draft position (ADP), three receivers stand out above the rest. The following fantasy football receivers are likely to beat their ADP and have a chance to finish as WR1s.
Fantasy Football WR3s With WR1 Upside
Christian Watson (WR – GB) | ADP: WR29
After tearing his ACL in the final game of the 2024 season, Christian Watson returned to the field in Week 8 last season, less than 10 months after the injury. If that’s not impressive enough, Watson finished as the fantasy WR15 in points per game (PPG) on the season, tallying an average of 13.2 PPG in his 10 games played.
Watson has always been an efficiency monster, and that was especially true last season despite a short turnaround off an ACL tear. His 2.41 fantasy points per target were second-best among all receivers, while his 0.57 fantasy points per route run was the fifth-highest mark.
Watson finished fourth in yards per route run (2.65), yards per target (11.1) and yards per reception (17.5), but only registered a 68.9% snap share and a 72.9% route share. In the 13 games Watson has topped a 75% route share, he’s averaged 17.5 points.
The good news for Watson is that he’s healthy this offseason and the Packers are no longer hoarding wide receivers, which will lead to an every-down role for the fifth-year pro. Let’s not forget that Watson is one of the most athletic receivers in the league, with the size and speed combination of a created player.
On top of all that, Jordan Love was quietly very good last year and looks the part of a quarterback aiding a massive receiver breakout.
Although he’s peaked at just 620 yards in a single season, if we get 17 games from Watson this year, he very well may double that total. He’s one of my favorite picks in fantasy football right now.
Rome Odunze (WR – CHI) | ADP: WR28
There are compelling cases for both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III as the Bears’ future No. 1 WR. The truth is, they can both eat from a menu designed by Ben Johnson that allows Caleb Williams to cook.
DJ Moore no longer has a seat at the table, but tight end Colston Loveland has emerged as a main entree, and the offense needs some refinement before it garners a spot in the latest MICHELIN Guide. It’s likely that either Odunze or Burden will find a path to their ceiling and become the featured dish in Chicago.
Burden registered a few big outings in his first seven games, but that also came with three games of negative receiving yardage. Across his final eight games, Burden found more consistency with a low of 27 receiving yards. Perhaps it is coincidental, or perhaps it is not, but Odunze first appeared on the injury report after Week 8.
Coming off a seven-catch, 114-yard game, Odunze limped into Week 9 and caught zero of his three targets. It was a tale of two halves to the season, as Odunze was off to a blistering hot start to the year. He was the WR3 in half-PPR heading into the Bears’ Week 5 bye, notching five touchdowns in his first four games.
Odunze sat as the WR10 through Week 8, but following his foot injury, he was the WR55 in Weeks 9 through 13 before the Bears shut him down for the regular season. The 6-foot-3, 214-pound receiver was playing through injuries late in the season, evidenced by his 1.18 yards per route run compared to the 2.21 mark he hit across the first eight games. For reference, 2.21 YPRR would have placed him just outside the top 10 in the NFL.
Odunze was only able to find the end zone once in the second half of the season, which doesn’t do his red-zone skillset justice, an area where he excels over Burden. While Burden can separate, he saw a lot of manufactured touches, and Odunze can be a contested catch menace when he’s healthy.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Odunze or Burden have a breakout year, but with the injury context and what we saw from Odunze through the first half of the season, there seems to be a slight ADP overreaction. The gap isn’t enormous, as Burden is going as the WR23, but I like Odunze’s odds of a ceiling outcome a bit more, and you can draft him a round later.
Jaylen Waddle (WR – DEN) | ADP: WR25
Last season, the Miami Dolphins ranked 25th in passing yards, 27th in completions and 30th in pass attempts. Tua Tagovailoa finished 30th in true passer rating and was benched for Quinn Ewers for the final four games of the season. In that offense, Jaylen Waddle finished as the WR25 in half-PPR PPG. Yet, he is currently being drafted as the WR25 after joining the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos attempted the fourth-most passes last season, finishing seventh in completions and 11th in passing yards. Needless to say, I’m surprised fantasy drafters are not selecting Waddle earlier, considering his upgraded surroundings.
It’s not as though the Broncos are the most explosive offense, despite their high pass rate, but it could be argued that Waddle is the missing piece to their offense. The Broncos finished 12th in yards after the catch per reception, with many of those a result of the play design rather than playmaking, and they suffered the second-highest drop rate across the NFL at 7%.
The last time Sean Payton had a playmaking receiver with this kind of speed was Brandin Cooks in New Orleans. Cooks is thought of as more of a deep threat, but Payton used him brilliantly, particularly in 2016, when Cooks finished as the WR9. Cooks finished 14th in yards after the catch that season while registering the sixth-most fantasy points per target.
In a putrid Dolphins offense last season, Waddle still finished 11th in fantasy points per route run, 10th in yards per route run and sixth in first downs per route run. He finished with the 19th-highest average depth of target (aDOT) at 13.1 and had 622 unrealized air yards, good for the 22nd-most, suggesting that Waddle was relied on downfield rather than setting him up to create yards after the catch.
When Waddle was at his best, producing 1,356 yards in 2022, he created the 10th-most yards after the catch, finishing first in yards per target and yards per reception. The Broncos will make the most of his speed, explosiveness and ability to create yards after the catch. If things break right, he’s got a real shot to finish the season as a WR1.
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