Welcome to the fresh season. The Shuffle Up series reflects how I tier positions as I get ready for my drafts. The salaries are unscientific in nature and meant to illustrate where talent clusters and drops off. Players listed at the same salary are considered even.
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I am going to draft receivers proactively, as I do every year. I want to build a roster where the receivers on my team essentially start themselves. It’s probably harder to find an impact free agent at this position than it is at any other spot. If you’re going to have a dynamic WR room, you need to build it now.
Scott Pianowski’s 2026 Shuffle Up series
The Big Tickets
Early picks are as much about floor as upside, and St. Brown checks both boxes. He’s missed just two games in four years, and he ranks second in targets, first in catches, fourth in yards and third in receiving over that span. When I have a pick in the 5-7 range, I’m often targeting St. Brown, and I wouldn’t blame anyone who took him over Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Lions are projected to score the most points in the league this year, boosted by an easy schedule that’s heavy on indoor games.
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London is the only receiver in this tier who doesn’t have a dynamic teammate on the outside, although the Falcons do boost two other elite talents in their target tree (Kyle Pitts Sr., Bijan Robinson). There’s no reason for London believers to sweat the Atlanta situation at QB — consider that London’s only caught touchdown passes from four quarterbacks, and none of them have been great (Michael Penix Jr., Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder). London’s 2024 return (100-1,271-9) is basically how I’d project him for the upcoming season.
Legitimate Building Blocks
Collins at his best is an awesome sight, a dominant receiver who can win on the entire route tree. But he’s had trouble staying healthy as a pro (19 missed games in five seasons) and he’s tied to a limited quarterback in C.J. Stroud. The Texans have an unmistakable identity — they aim to win with dominant defense and controlled offense. Collins still commands a top-20 pick in Yahoo leagues, which means you have to draft him at his ceiling. I’ll enjoy the show, but eschew that draft cost.
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McMillan was an impactful rookie (70-1,014-7), justifying the early pick the Panthers spent on him. But his upside is likely capped, mostly because of the limitations of QB Bryce Young. Teammate Jalen Coker isn’t in McMillan’s class, but he’s likely to improve this year as well, carving out a bigger share. I also worry about this offense as a whole, noting an offensive line that’s already had injuries this summer.
The Eagles are in a transitional phase with their offense and their WR room, so it makes sense that Smith would be especially leaned on as the most familiar piece. Smith figures to challenge for his career-best 136 targets from four years ago, and you can probably take 7-8 touchdowns to the bank. His efficiency metrics have been remarkably stable his entire career; he just needs a slight bump in usage to beat his ADP. I’ll bet on him.
McConkey’s second season was a disappointment, but I’ll file that as an excused absence — the offensive line fell apart early, the play calling was stale and uninspired, the target tree was especially crowded. The Chargers still boast a deep and dynamic target tree, but McConkey can absorb some of Keenan Allen’s vacated targets. The hire of OC Mike McDaniel is obviously a boost, and I can’t unsee what McConkey did in the second half of his rookie year, when he looked like a superstar. That current ADP in the mid-40s looks like a gift.
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Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
Chicago’s offensive players will be highly coveted this year, and even with the expected helium, I’ll be chasing them, too — Ben Johnson fixed this offense right away. But perhaps we need to cool expectations on Odunze, who admits last year’s stress fracture in his foot has turned into something he has to manage moving forward. Teammates Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III were drafted after the Johnson hire, but Odunze was inherited by the current coaching staff. On a team overflowing with target players, Odunze is a reasonable fade.
Sutton has traditionally been one of those boring veteran values we often talk about, an unsexy but consistent producer. And once again the ADP is appealing, as new teammate Jaylen Waddle is screening the case. Sutton’s average season the last three years meshes out around 70 catches, 1,000 yards and 8-9 touchdowns, all reasonable areas for this year’s projection. Not everything has to be a swing for the fences — often time a single or a double is just fine.
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Pierce is a ridiculous deep threat, leading the NFL in yards per catch two straight seasons. That output landed him a juicy extension after the year. But the Colts have been reluctant to force the ball to Pierce (he’s never had more than 84 targets) or expand his route tree. He’s also coming off ankle surgery, aiming to fix a problem that dogged him the last two years. It’s remarkable that Pierce has been this dynamic while not being 100% over this span, but I’m going to assume he’s not at full throttle to open the fresh season. I can’t draft him proactively.
Some Plausible Upside
Whenever Diggs signs, he’s going to be playing catchup with his new team. Considering that and his age (he turns 33 in November), I couldn’t push him into double digits. That said, Diggs still maintained an 83.3% catch rate last year, and a super 9.9 yards per target. Part of that profile is a commentary on Drake Maye, but Diggs still appears to have something left in the tank.
The Titans used the fourth overall pick on Carnell Tate, but Robinson could easily lead the club in catches this year. We have to note Robinson’s history with OC Brian Daboll — they were together in New York — and respect Robinson’s 185 catches the last two years. Some will call Robinson a PPR scam, noting his modest seven touchdowns the last two seasons, but he’s the type of consistent producer I love for my WR4 or WR5 slot.
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