Warriors vs. Thunder prediction, odds, line, time: 2025 NBA picks from proven model

A highlight of Tuesday’s NBA schedule has the Oklahoma City Thunder putting their 12-game win streak on the line when they visit the Golden State Warriors. OKC (20-1) is coming off a 123-115 win over Portland on Sunday, while the Warriors (11-10) defeated New Orleans, 104-96, on Saturday. The Thunder won the first matchup between the two on Nov. 11, by a score of 126-102, after Golden State won two of three matchups last season. Stephen Curry (quadriceps) is out for the Warriors and Jimmy Butler (gluteal contusion) is questionable, while Luguentz Dort (adductor) and Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) are out for the Thunder.

Tipoff is at 11 p.m. ET from the Chase Center in San Francisco. Oklahoma City is an 11.5-point favorite in the latest Thunder vs. Warriors odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 223.5. Before making any Warriors vs. Thunder picks, check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight seasons. The model enters Week 7 of the 2025-26 NBA season on a sizzling 29-14 roll on top-rated NBA spread picks dating back to last season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.    

Now, the model has simulated Thunder vs. Warriors 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NBA picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and NBA betting lines for Warriors vs. Thunder:

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How to make Warriors vs. Thunder picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total (223.5). Both teams have favored the over this year, with it going a combined 24-18, and their first matchup in November hit the Over. OKC has seen the Over hit in three straight road games, while Golden State has seen the Over go 8-5 over its last 13 games.

Both teams are prolific on the offensive end of the court, with the Warriors leading the NBA in made 3-pointers, while the Thunder rank third in points per game. Additionally, OKC is down to of its best defenders in Dort and Hartenstein, which is a big reason why the Thunder are projected to allow nearly six more points than their season average. With that, the teams are forecasted to combine for 228 combined points, with the Over hitting well over 50% of the time.

The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s NBA picks. 

So who wins Thunder vs. Warriors, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Thunder spread to back, all from the model that has returned well over $10,000 on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.