Logan’s prediction: Brown hits a “home run” vs. the Commanders.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Jalen Hurts and Marcus Mariota headline tonight’s action in Landover.
This NFC East rivalry game was supposed to be loaded with playoff implications for both sides when the NFL schedule makers slotted it for a Saturday in Week 16.
The Philadelphia Eagles have upheld their expectations, trying to lock in the division title and jump up the conference standings with a win. The Washington Commanders, on the other hand, have suffered through a cursed season and may just be counting down the days until it’s over.
My Eagles vs. Commanders predictions and NFL picks for December 20 explain why A.J. Brown is in line for a big performance.
Kickoff is set for 5:00 p.m. ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, with the game airing on FOX.
Eagles vs Commanders prediction
Eagles vs Commanders Best bet: A.J. Brown Over 60.5 receiving yards (-114)
The Philadelphia Eagles received a bran muffin in the form of the Las Vegas Raiders last weekend. That matchup helped to “get things moving” for an Eagles offense that was stuck in the mud for most of November and early December.
Philly scored 31 points on close to 400 total yards against the Raiders’ wretched defense. Receiver A.J. Brown accounted for 41 of those yards on just two catches — a quiet day due to the blowout and the Eagles opting to pull Brown and other stars in the fourth quarter.
Before those tempered results, Brown put up monster numbers in recent outings. He went for 100 yards or more in three straight games, drawing 35 total targets for 24 receptions.
Brown is locked in for another stellar showing in Week 16, given the competition. The Washington Commanders own one of the worst passing defenses in the league, and Brown burned Dan Quinn’s crew for gains of 65, 95, and 97 yards in their three meetings last year.
The Commanders, who are 28th in pass defense DVOA and sit tied for the most completions of 40-plus yards allowed (12), lean into man coverage at an above-average rate — especially now that Quinn is calling the plays.
Brown enters Week 16 as the No. 4-rated receiver versus man schemes at PFF, most recently lighting up the Chicago Bears man-centric schemes for 132 yards on 10 catches. Quarterback Jalen Hurts also sees an uptick in those one-on-one situations, with his career splits seeing a significant spike against man coverage.
Brown’s player projections for this Saturday showcase all sit north of 70 yards, with most models flirting with 80 yards and a ceiling sitting at 87. That more than enough to blow through this modest total of 60.5 O/U.
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Eagles vs Commanders same-game parlay
The Eagles can clinch the NFC East and make a run at a Top 2 seed with a win at Washington.
Brown burned the Commies for big gains last season and this defense is in much worse shape in 2025.
Brown scored two touchdowns versus Washington last season.
Eagles vs Commanders SGP (+389)
- Eagles -7
- A.J. Brown Over 60.5 receiving yards
- A.J. Brown anytime touchdown
Our big-ticket SGP: Hurts burns Washington
I love to tack on a “Tush Push” TD to pump up the parlays. Hurts has eight rushing scores in 2025.
Eagles vs Commanders SGP (+829)
- Eagles -7
- A.J. Brown Over 60.5 receiving yards
- A.J. Brown anytime touchdown
- Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown
Eagles vs Commanders game predictions
Eagles vs Commanders moneyline prediction
The Eagles need a win to secure the divisional crown and a playoff home game.
Philly is also fighting for a bye through the Wild Card round.
Eagles vs Commanders spread prediction
I bet this spread at -5.5 earlier in the week and still feel comfortable laying a touchdown.
Philadelphia has a lot of work to do, and this matchup with Washington is a perfect spot to get right before the postseason.
Eagles vs Commanders Over/Under prediction
I’m leaning Over.
Philadelphia wants to work out the kinks on offense, especially when it comes to explosive plays.
The Commanders have been susceptible to “home run” plays all season.
Eagles vs Commanders odds
- Spread: Eagles -7 (-110) | Commanders +7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Eagles -320 | Commanders +260
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 (-110) | Under 44.5 (-110)
More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Eagles vs Commanders trend to know
Washington is 5-15 SU and 7-11-2 ATS as a home underdog in the regular season since 2021. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Commanders.
How to watch Eagles vs Commanders
| Location | Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD |
| Date | Saturday, December 28, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
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