The fantasy football season isn’t over until the NFL season is over. Fantasy analyst Joel Smyth goes over his favorite Yahoo Daily Fantasy plays for the Championship Round.
QB – Matthew Stafford $32
In their last matchup, Matthew Stafford threw for 457 yards against the Seahawks, without Davante Adams. Even with that in mind, Seattle isn’t the best matchup, ranking fifth-best against passing fantasy points this season. The issue with Championship Round DFS is that no quarterback has a great matchup. I trust both Sean McVay and Stafford to find ways to move the ball downfield in their third matchup against the Seahawks defense.
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If the Rams struggle against the Seahawks’ rushing defense again, Stafford should eclipse 40 attempts once more. When thinking of DFS correlation, Stafford is also the easiest to stack with his weapons.
RB – Kenneth Walker III $29
After inconsistent volume throughout the season, Kenneth Walker III will be relied on heavily with Zach Charbonnet out for the season. Walker saw a season-high 22 touches versus San Francisco last week, capitalizing on his opportunity with three touchdowns.
Walker didn’t have many notable performances in the regular season, but when he did, there was a good chance it was versus Los Angeles. The Seattle RB handled 33 touches for 275 scrimmage yards on his way to 21.3 PPG against his division rival. The projected volume at his price is easily the best on the slate.
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RB – TreVeyon Henderson $25
Not a confident play, but a contrarian one. You need uncommon plays in DFS, and after his recent disappointments, Henderson should be lower-rostered compared to other top RBs. The obvious ceiling comes with a low floor as the rookie RB takes on Denver’s run defense. Henderson has still handled 45% of the carries in the playoffs, but has lacked the efficiency of Rhamondre Stevenson. In Henderson’s regular-season games with 10-15 touches, he averaged 11.8 half-PPR PPG. His two performances in January have totaled 3.5 PPG. I believe it’s a risk worth taking, given the limited options.
WR – Puka Nacua $37
The last time Puka Nacua played the Seahawks, he scored 40.5 fantasy points — not bad. Adams is back, but I still prefer stacking Nacua with Stafford than pairing Jaxon Smith-Njigba with Sam Darnold. The Rams have moved away from their heavy TE sets, resulting in an 89% route share for Nacua, considerably higher than his regular-season rate of 75%.
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WR – Pat Bryant $13
In the last five games of the season, Pat Bryant averaged 6.0 targets per game and 45.8 yards per game as he overtook Troy Franklin. Bryant is the Broncos’ best WR versus zone coverage this season and can be utilized more than ever in the AFC Championship. As the primary slot receiver, he should avoid shutdown CB Christian Gonzalez on the majority of his routes. With Jarrett Stidham entering this matchup, a high-volume, quick-passing attack could equal a big day for the rookie WR at a major value.
TE – Terrance Ferguson $11
No matter where you go for tight end, it’s going to be a shot in the dark this Sunday. One of the cheapest and most contrarian options that I believe in is Terrance Ferguson, the Rams rookie who has slowly come on as another option in L.A.’s offense. Ferguson more than doubled Tyler Higbee’s routes after returning from injury ahead of the Divisional Round. After five targets versus the Bears, he has now had 4+ (and a career high) in three straight games. I’d say the rookie is mispriced compared to the other TEs, and has higher TD upside than non-Ram TEs.
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D/ST – New England Patriots $12
With Bo Nix missing the Championship game, the Patriots are the easiest choice at defense for me. Not only are they cheap, but they have the clear best QB matchup and are coming off two dominant performances. This will be the third straight time I’ve chosen the Patriots defense, and it has worked wonders so far.
And guess what — even with these picks, you still have budget left for the final two players in your lineup: $41 ($20.5 per player)!