With free agency slowing down, I decided to look at early fantasy football average draft position (ADP) data to identify some potential landmines in redraft leagues. The main focus was to hammer the early to middle rounds (two through eight), where more mistakes are common. Using early Underdog ADP as the baseline, here are the players I’m most hesitant to draft at cost.
Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) | Underdog ADP: 31.1
I was hoping Breece Hall would find a better situation this offseason, but the Jets used the franchise tag to keep him in New York.
He rushed for over 1,000 yards, but his PPR fantasy points per game have now declined in three straight seasons. He’s gone from 17.1 points per game to 13. Yet, Hall is still being drafted in the RB15 range.
Hall’s receiving ability has always been one of his strong suits. However, that part of his game has quietly declined over the past three seasons. His receptions and receiving yardage have dropped each year, limiting the PPR upside he once had.
Hall can pop at times, but he is also very volatile. In six games last season, Hall finished with fewer than 60 total yards from scrimmage, failing to score a single touchdown in any of those games. The yards per carry dipped as well, going from 4.8 in the first half of the season to 3.9 in the second half.
The risk-versus-reward is too steep.
RJ Harvey (RB – DEN) | Underdog ADP: 61.5
There was a lot of hype on RJ Harvey out of Central Florida last year. He had a solid rookie season but ultimately disappointed those who drafted him. Harvey averaged 12.2 PPR fantasy points per game.
Currently, he’s going around other backs like Cam Skattebo, Quinshon Judkins and D’Andre Swift. All of these backs finished with a higher snap share percentage than Harvey.
Through the first 10 weeks of the season, Harvey only saw a 29.4% snap share. When J.K. Dobbins went down with a season-ending injury, his utilization rose to just over 60% to close out the year.
The Broncos valued Dobbins enough to bring him back on a two-year deal with $8 Million in guarantees. This signals they intend to give him a significant role in the offense yet again.
From Weeks 11 to 18, among 45 qualifying running backs with at least 50 carries, Harvey ranked 31st in rushing yards per game. He also ranked 30th in explosive yards and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt, per the Fantasy Points data suite.
With mediocre efficiency and touchdown spikes that carried his late-season surge, Harvey is a risky bet at his current ADP.
DK Metcalf (WR – PIT) | Underdog ADP: 75.4
It was not the best debut for DK Metcalf in Pittsburgh. To put it bluntly, he averaged 12.5 PPR fantasy points per game — the second-lowest mark of his career.
The late-season stretch wasn’t encouraging either. Over his final six games, Metcalf averaged 4.5 catches for 58 yards per game. Keep in mind that a seven-catch, 148-yard performance in Week 14 boosted the stretch. Outside of that game, his numbers weren’t impressive.
The quarterback situation is still worth monitoring, but target competition is a concern. Michael Pittman Jr. was traded to the Steelers and signed a three-year extension.
Metcalf didn’t lead the team in receptions last season; running back Kenneth Gainwell did.
Now Pittman replaces Calvin Austin. This gives Pittsburgh a far more reliable option in the passing game who can command a stronger target share. With uncertainty at quarterback and added competition for targets, projecting a bounce-back season is difficult. It’s a risk I’m not willing to take.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn