MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Tueday (4/14)

We’re expecting a full slate of games today unless Mother Nature has other ideas. There is always the possibility of a rain delay or even cancellation during April games at an outdoor stadium. Make sure you’re being vigilant about the weather reports.

Today’s main slate on DraftKings begins at 7:05 ET and includes 10 games. FanDuel has the same slate available.

Tuesday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Tuesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (4/14)

• Both of the starters in the Blue Jays vs. Brewers matchup are DFS options. Kevin Gausman and Jacob Misiorowski are the league leaders among qualified pitchers in strikeout percentage. We’ll favor Gausman over Misiorowski. The Brewers’ offense has struggled in the last week, with a 68 wRC+.
• Noah Schultz is making his MLB debut today for the White Sox against the Rays. He’s pitched 14 innings at Triple-A this season, with a 1.29 ERA and 2.04 FIP. That comes with a 40% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate. Keeping the walks in check will be key.
• Joey Cantillo has been striking out batters at a rate we’ve never seen from him before. It’s only been three starts, covering 14.2 innings, but he has currently struck out 33% of batters. The walks are also a bit higher than before at 11.7%. It’s working early, with a 2.45 ERA, 1.85 FIP, and 2.37 expected ERA. His matchup today is against the Cardinals.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Atlanta Braves Projected Lineup (4/14)

We’re expecting a full slate of games today unless Mother Nature has other ideas. There is always the possibility of a rain delay or even cancellation during April games at an outdoor stadium. Make sure you’re being vigilant about the weather reports.

Today’s main slate on DraftKings begins at 7:05 ET and includes 10 games. FanDuel has the same slate available.

Tuesday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Tuesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (4/14)

• Both of the starters in the Blue Jays vs. Brewers matchup are DFS options. Kevin Gausman and Jacob Misiorowski are the league leaders among qualified pitchers in strikeout percentage. We’ll favor Gausman over Misiorowski. The Brewers’ offense has struggled in the last week, with a 68 wRC+.
• Noah Schultz is making his MLB debut today for the White Sox against the Rays. He’s pitched 14 innings at Triple-A this season, with a 1.29 ERA and 2.04 FIP. That comes with a 40% strikeout rate and 4% walk rate. Keeping the walks in check will be key.
• Joey Cantillo has been striking out batters at a rate we’ve never seen from him before. It’s only been three starts, covering 14.2 innings, but he has currently struck out 33% of batters. The walks are also a bit higher than before at 11.7%. It’s working early, with a 2.45 ERA, 1.85 FIP, and 2.37 expected ERA. His matchup today is against the Cardinals.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Atlanta Braves Projected Lineup (4/14)

• Max Meyer is the starting pitcher for the Marlins today against the Braves. Meyer has good-looking surface stats, with an ERA of 3.68. However, his ERA indicators show a true talent level of at least a run higher. His walks are up to nearly 12%. He is also only getting groundballs at a 39.5% rate, which means lots of potential for extra-base hits for the Braves.
• Matt Olson is where I’m beginning my Braves’ stack. He’s off to a strong start, with a 21.4% barrel rate and a .576 expected slugging percentage. He’s already had eight doubles and four home runs. Based on his spray chart, four of those doubles could have easily been home runs, which would have people really talking about Olson’s start.
• Don’t let a perceived slow start from Ronald Acuna Jr. sway your thoughts. This is still one of the best bats in all of baseball. Even though he has just a single home run, he already has eight barrels on the season. That means he has been a bit unlucky and could easily have four or more home runs himself. His price on FanDuel puts him in must-play territory.
• There are plenty of other high-priced options in the Braves lineup, but if you’re looking for a bit cheaper bat, consider Dominic Smith on DraftKings. Smith is performing admirably as the strong-side of the platoon at DH. He doesn’t have enough at-bats to qualify, but his expected slugging percentage of .587 is very stout.

Houston Astros Projected Lineup (4/14)

• Today’s expected starter for the Rockies is Michael Lorenzen. No pitcher has allowed more hits than Lorenzen’s 26, with three of those being home runs. That’s despite him pitching only 14 innings. He has an 8.36 ERA, which coincides with his 6.00 FIP.
• You have to be thrifty elsewhere, but there is no better option than Yordan Alvarez. He is second in wRC+ among qualified batters at 242. He is also one of only two batters who have a flyball rate and a hard-hit rate over 50%. The other happens to be the priciest hitting option on the slate in Shohei Ohtani.
• Carlos Correa’s Statcast profile looks as strong as it has ever been, with an average exit velocity of 91 mph. He needs to optimize his launch angle a bit more to start hitting for more power, but this is a safe option for delivering a quality score.
• There are not many cheap options in the Astros lineup since the DFS sites understand the matchup, too. After struggling against right-handed pitchers in his rookie season, Cam Smith is more than holding his own early this season. He has six extra-base hits against right-handed pitchers, including a pair of home runs. His hard-hit rate is 10% better compared to last season.

Core Studs

• First off, that is not a typo. Fernando Tatis Jr. has now played a couple of games at second base. It hasn’t slowed his offense at all. He has gone 3-for-9 against Bryan Woo in his career with a pair of home runs.
• Andy Pages has been the third-best batter in baseball so far this season by wRC+. Only Ben Rice and Yordan Alvarez have a higher mark than Pages’ 233. The Dodgers even moved him to third in the lineup in their last game against a right-handed pitcher.
• Jordan Walker’s price has moved up enough that he can no longer be a Value Play. However, even at his new slightly elevated prices, he is still a Core Stud to consider locking into your lineup.

Value Plays/Punts

• Paul Goldschmidt is scheduled to face Reid Detmers today. Detmers is a left-handed pitcher. Goldschmidt had a .981 OPS against left-handed pitchers last season.
• Josh Naylor had his first extra-base hit of the season yesterday. It was a first-inning home run off of Mike Burrows. He followed it up with a second home run later in the game. His price has fallen too much to ignore on both of the DFS sites.
• Matt Wallner is doing what he does, striking out a lot and hitting home runs when he makes contact. No batter has struck out more than Wallner’s 29 times, but he also has a couple of doubles and three home runs. Today’s matchup is against veteran righty Sonny Gray. Wallner is only an option against right-handed pitchers.

Tuesday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Kevin Gausman: 5.5 Strikeouts — Higher

It was already mentioned above that Gausman is only behind Misiorowski in terms of strikeout rate. The reason we are taking Gausman’s prop is that it is lower than Misiorowski’s. Gausman has made three starts this season. He has struck out 11, 10, and, in his most recent start, five. The Brewers are striking out just under 22% as a team.

Jordan Walker: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI – Higher

At some point, Walker will cool down, but we can take advantage of his hot streak today. He has gone over this line in seven straight games and eight of his last nine overall. The Statcast page continues to look like one of the best hitters in baseball with top two percentile marks in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, and barrel rate.

Shane McClanahan: 5.5 Strikeouts – Higher

McClanahan’s strikeout line is at 5.5 versus the White Sox. The problem is that he has struggled to go deep into games. He struck out four in his first game with 69 pitches. Then, struck out five with 79 pitches in his second start. Today, he gets a matchup with a team that has struck out 27.9% of the time. The White Sox have struck out at least eight times in five of their last six games. If McClanahan can get to 85 pitches, he could strike out six or more batters.

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