ARSENAL travel to Manchester City on Sunday for a crucial match in the title race.
Mikel Arteta‘s side go into the contest six points clear at the top, but City have a game in hand and all the momentum.
Pep Guardiola claims that the title race will be “over” if his side lose to Arsenal, while Arteta called the match-up a “big opportunity”.
But just how important is Sunday’s clash?
Statistics gurus Opta have crunched the numbers to determine how each outcome will affect the race.
It has been speculated that Arsenal could look to settle for a draw, but Arteta has vowed to go for the win.
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Should the Gunners earn all three points they will move nine points clear, albeit with City still having that game in hand.
In this scenario, Opta would give Arsenal a 98 per cent chance of capturing their first league title since 2004.
A draw would also hugely strengthen the Gunners’ position.
They would remain six points clear having played a game more than City.
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Opta would give Arsenal an 89 per cent chance of winning the league if the points are shared, despite City potentially only needing one more Arsenal defeat to go back ahead.
If Guardiola’s men win on Sunday they would have the title in their hands.
They go into the match with their goal difference only three behind Arsenal’s, meaning a two-goal victory would swing this category into their favour even before their game in hand against Crystal Palace.
Perhaps surprisingly, even a City win would see Arsenal have a 69 per cent chance of still clinching the title.
The Opta supercomputer is struggling to split both sides going into Sunday’s match.
Following 10,000 simulations, City came out on top 37.7 per cent of the time.
Arsenal won 35.8 per cent of the simulations, with the draw at 26.5 per cent.