Photo By – Reuters Connect. Denver Broncos defensive end Zach Allen (99) reacts against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at Empower Field at Mile High
The NFL is officially back, and there’s no better time of year. The couch is calling, and it’s time to sweat out some NFL moneyline picks.
Heading into Monday Night Football, where I have the Denver Broncos pegged to win as slight underdogs vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, I went a robust 11-3 with my moneyline selections through Sunday’s late-afternoon slate.
The SNF result is still pending, but it’s a strong start to the season either way.
Let’s dive right into the rest of my Week 1 NFL picks.
Last season’s record: 159-97 for -1.2 units
NFL moneyline picks for Week 1
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code ‘COVERS35‘ and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $35 — including the NFL!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account 
Expert Week 1 NFL moneyline picks
✅ Patriots vs. Seahawks: 
Seahawks (62%)
Seattle’s defense held New England to just 13 points in last year’s Super Bowl, and Cover 6 is the name of the game when it comes to disrupting Drake Maye’s rhythm, as seen by his god-awful postseason stats.
It may take a while for new Seahawks OC Brian Fleury to hit a groove, but he won’t have to call a perfect game to take down New England.
If a Diana Russini-related piece drops on gameday, all the better for Seattle’s odds.
Read Jason Logan’s full Patriots vs. Seahawks predictions.
✅ 49ers vs. Rams: 
49ers (36%)
Los Angeles may be the best team in the NFL on paper, but the last time we saw this much preseason hype surrounding a team, the 2011 Eagles flamed out and finished 8-8.
Kyle Shanahan has always played his buddy Sean McVay tough, and I can’t look past the eerily different travel schedules that the 49ers and Rams have opted for.
I’m siding with the club that’s been in Australia for a calendar week rather than the one flying in 24 hours before kickoff.
Read Joe Osborne’s full 49ers vs. Rams predictions.
✅ Buccaneers vs. Bengals: 
Bengals (66%)
We all know how lethal a healthy Joe Burrow can be with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins out wide, and finally, the cavalry is coming on defense.
After adding Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, and Jonathan Allen this offseason, along with drafting edge rusher Cashius Howell, the Bengals’ front four will be bringing plenty of heat.
With Tampa bringing in a new OC and future Hall of Famer Mike Evans in the process, I like Cincy to come out firing.
Read Shawn Krest’s full Buccaneers vs. Bengals predictions.
✅ Saints vs. Lions: 
Lions (75%)
For the record, the Saints are my pick to win the NFC South, but a Week 1 matchup in Detroit is a tough spot.
This is a make-or-break year for Dan Campbell, and the Lions’ loaded offense should have no problem one-upping a NOLA unit starting the season without both Alvin Kamara and Jordyn Tyson.
Read Neil Parker’s full Saints vs. Lions predictions.
✅ Jets vs. Titans: 
Jets (48%)
Cam Ward’s preseason struggles can’t go unnoticed, and the Jets had a solid offseason, bringing in veteran defensive talent like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Demario Davis while drafting pass rusher David Bailey.
With fellow draft picks Kenyon Sadiq Jr. and Omar Cooper Jr. set to carve out nice roles in the offense alongside Geno Smith and Garrett Wilson, give me the Jets to start 2026 on a high note.
Read Geoff Clark’s full Jets vs. Titans predictions.
❌ Ravens vs. Colts: 
Colts (38%)
As a Colts fan, I’m going to savor the brief window of seeing Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward on the field together before the injury gods inevitably send one (or both) to IR.
The Ravens should be excellent under Jesse Minter in the long run, but losing All-Pro center Tyler Linderbaum could create some early hiccups for their offense.
Give me Indy to pull off the home upset at Lucas Oil Stadium. For the Shoe!
Read Quinn Allen’s full Ravens vs. Colts predictions.
✅ Falcons vs. Steelers: 
Steelers (63%)
Atlanta went full “28-3 mode” this offseason, losing both Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. to injury and suspension.
Add in a messy QB battle between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr., and the Falcons dominated my Twitter FYP for all the wrong reasons.
More continuity around Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers in Year 2 will give them a leg up at home.
Read Neil Parker’s full Steelers vs. Falcons predictions.
✅ Bears vs. Panthers: 
Bears (60%)
The Panthers came back down to earth in the second half of last season, going just 3-5 SU over their final eight games. Now, they enter Week 1 with an already banged-up offensive line.
Ben Johnson will be looking for Caleb Williams and the Bears to make an early statement in the NFC, and Chicago will do just that in Charlotte.
Read Shawn Krest’s full Bears vs. Panthers predictions.
More Covers NFL trading tools
✅ Browns vs. Jaguars: 
Jaguars (79%)
If you listen to Jared Verse in interviews, he’ll make you believe for a second that the Browns are a real threat.
As much as I admire the guy’s positivity, you’re only as good as your QB in the NFL in 2026.
Deshaun Watson as the starter? Really?
Looking to defend their AFC South crown, the Jags are set to benefit from some good old-fashioned heat and humidity in the Sunshine State.
Read Nick Galaida’s full Browns vs. Jaguars predictions.
❌ Bills vs. Texans: 
Texans (50%)
While Buffalo picked up disgruntled WR D.J. Moore and essentially swapped out an over-the-hill Joey Bosa for a similarly aged Bradley Chubb, Houston completely upgraded its offensive line without losing any key pieces from last year’s elite defensive unit.
Houston has kept Josh Allen to fewer than 200 passing yards in each of his last two games against the Texans, and they prevailed in both. Expect more of the same in Week 1.
Read Jason Logan’s full Bills vs. Texans predictions.
✅ Dolphins vs. Raiders: 
Raiders (63%)
As risky as it may seem, I’d seriously consider playing Las Vegas in your Survivor Pool this week.
Klint Kubiak isn’t messing around when it comes to revamping the Raiders’ identity, while the Dolphins are fielding the worst roster in the entire league.
The Raiders won’t be a playoff team this year, but they’ll be much more competitive and prevail in the Black Hole on Sunday.
Read Geoff Clark’s full Dolphins vs. Raiders predictions.
✅ Packers vs. Vikings: 
Vikings (54%)
Under Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage, I’m bullish on Kyler Murray making early waves in the Comeback Player of the Year odds, especially with Green Bay’s defense set to be without Micah Parsons to begin the season.
Minnesota has won four of its last five home matchups against the Packers, while O’Connell is 3-1 straight-up in Week 1 as Vikings head coach.
SKOL!
Read Jason Logan’s full Packers vs. Vikings predictions.
✅ Commanders vs. Eagles: 
Eagles (68%)
Washington’s offensive line is an unmitigated disaster, and at this point, the Eagles losing A.J. Brown feels more like an addition than a subtraction for the psyche of Jalen Hurts and the Philly offense.
The Eagles have beaten this Commanders team by double digits in two of their last three meetings, with the lone outlier coming in a meaningless Week 18 QB duel between Tanner McKee and Josh Johnson.
Philly secures the dub at the Linc.
Read Neil Parker’s full Commanders vs. Eagles predictions.
❌ Cardinals vs. Chargers: 
Chargers (82%)
Jim Harbaugh takes care of business against bad teams, and Geoff Clark detailed that in his Cardinals vs. Chargers early leans:
“Since 2024, LAC is 12-2 straight-up and 11-3 against the spread vs. teams with a 40% winning rate or worse.”
Rookie running back Jeremiah Love should make Arizona entertaining, but beyond that, the Cardinals remain a mess on defense with Jacoby Brissett as their bridge QB.
Read Geoff Clark’s full Cardinals vs. Chargers predictions.
Cowboys vs. Giants: 
Cowboys (60%)
John Harbaugh’s cringey opening team-meeting speech, Cam Skattebo’s offseason antics, and the general circus surrounding the Giants have me fading Big Blue out of the gate.
There’s plenty of noise around this team and an abundance of talent at the skill positions, but losing DT Dexter Lawrence II is an underrated blow. Meanwhile, Dallas has quietly avoided the Jerry Jones-induced drama that has defined so much of their recent offseasons.
Dallas is 9-1 SU over its last 10 head-to-head matchups against the G-Men, and I like the Cowboys to stand tall on Sunday night.
Read Jason Logan’s full Cowboys vs. Giants predictions.
Broncos vs. Chiefs: 
Broncos (44%)
Eric Bieniemy will likely take a conservative approach, leaning heavily on Kenneth Walker III and the Chiefs’ ground game as Patrick Mahomes works his way back into form.
The problem? Denver’s defense was one of the best in football against the run last season, ranking second overall while allowing just 91.1 rushing yards per game and 3.87 yards per carry.
On the other side, Denver’s offense has added another explosive weapon in Jaylen Waddle, giving Bo Nix a true WR1 and Sean Payton another weapon to scheme with.
The wrong team is favored on MNF.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.