Trevor Knapp
• Betting Analyst
7+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 17, 2026 , 09:00 PM ET
• 4 min read
We’ve rounded up our NFL experts’ top Week 6 picks and predictions for every matchup on Sunday, Oct. 18, and Monday Night Football.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Custom Covers Photo.
Our Week 6 NFL picks for Sunday are here: one top pick from each of the 12 Sunday game previews, listed in kickoff order (all times ET) with the analyst behind every play.
A “top pick” is the analyst’s best angle in that preview, which isn’t always the point spread. Lines move, so confirm the latest NFL odds before locking in your picks.
Week 6 top picks at a glance (Sunday, Oct. 18 and Monday, Oct. 19)
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9:30 a.m. kickoff (London)
Texans vs. Jaguars
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. (Wembley Stadium, London)
- TV: NFL Network
- Analyst: Neil Parker
Top pick: Jaguars moneyline
Neil Parker recommends Jacksonville’s moneyline up to 62%. His Texans vs. Jaguars prediction and picks point to a tough spot for Houston, which is playing its third road game in three weeks and making the trip to London.
Parker notes the Texans have faced Dallas and Tennessee in their past two games, a step down in class from a Jacksonville defense that ranks third in DVOA and second in fewest points allowed per drive. The Jaguars are 2.5-point favorites.
1 p.m. kickoffs
Bears vs. Falcons
Top pick: Falcons moneyline
Quinn Allen likes Atlanta’s moneyline up to 55%. His Bears vs. Falcons prediction and picks expect Michael Penix Jr. back after a Week 5 rib injury, with the Falcons averaging 34.3 points per game across his three starts.
Allen also leans on a ground game led by Bijan Robinson, who tops the NFL with 580 rushing yards. Chicago is missing T.J. Edwards and Montez Sweat, and Caleb Williams hasn’t been cleared from a hamstring tear. The Bears are listed as 1.5-point favorites.
Jets vs. Patriots
Top pick: Under 43.5
Ed Scimia backs the Under and is comfortable playing it down to 42.5. His Jets vs. Patriots prediction and picks note that New York’s offense averages 5.1 yards per play (22nd) and 18.6 points per game (28th), while its defense ranks top three in yards allowed per play (4.9).
Scimia doesn’t expect Drake Maye to repeat his recent numbers against that defense, and the Under is 6-2 in the past eight Jets-Patriots meetings. New England is a 7.5-point home favorite.
Panthers vs. Eagles
Top pick: Panthers -3.5
Shawn Krest would lay the points with Carolina until the spread reaches 53% or the moneyline falls below 60%. His Panthers vs. Eagles prediction and picks say the matchup turned lopsided when Jalen Hurts was ruled out late in the week with a blood clot, and the spread has widened two points since the start of the week.
Tanner McKee starts for a Philadelphia offense that ranks 30th in EPA per play. Carolina, fifth in yards per play, is getting receiver Jalen Coker back and has activated tackle Taylor Moton from injured reserve.
Ravens vs. Browns
Top pick: Derrick Henry Over 88.5 rushing yards
Tom Oldfield targets Derrick Henry’s rushing total. His Ravens vs. Browns prediction and picks note Henry leads the NFL with 113 carries and 95.2 rushing yards per game, and he has cleared this number in eight of his last 10 games.
With Lamar Jackson sidelined and Tyler Huntley starting, Oldfield expects a run-heavy script against a Cleveland defense that allows 117.4 rushing yards per game and is dealing with injuries on the defensive line. Baltimore is a 3.5-point favorite.
Saints vs. Giants
Top pick: Giants moneyline
Geoff Clark likes the Giants’ moneyline up to 55%. His Saints vs. Giants prediction and picks point to New York going 3-0 straight up at home when the spread falls between -3 and +3.
Clark also cites a Saints defense that ranks 27th in EPA per play and 31st in success rate, plus a pass-rush mismatch: the Giants rank fifth in pass-rush win rate while New Orleans ranks 26th in pass-block win rate. The Saints are missing left tackle Kelvin Banks and running back Travis Etienne, and the Giants are 1.5-point favorites.
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Top pick: Buccaneers +2.5
Geoff Clark likes Tampa Bay +2.5, all the way down to a pick ’em, as a sell-high spot on Pittsburgh. His Steelers vs. Buccaneers prediction and picks note the Steelers needed 50- and 80-yard touchdowns from Jaylen Warren to break open last week’s win over Indianapolis.
The Buccaneers rank fourth in defensive rushing EPA per play and second in yards per rush allowed. Pittsburgh is 3-7 against the spread on the road since the start of last season.
Titans vs. Colts
Top pick: Titans +6.5
Geoff Clark would take Tennessee +6.5, down to +5.5, and calls it more of an anti-Indianapolis play. His Titans vs. Colts prediction and picks point to a Colts team that ranks 31st in net yards per play and 32nd in net quarterback pressure rate.
Clark adds that Daniel Jones ranks 24th in adjusted EPA per play, while Tennessee ranks fourth in yards per rush allowed, which he says can neutralize Jonathan Taylor. The Colts are 6.5-point favorites.
4:05 p.m. kickoff
Cardinals vs. Rams
Top pick: Rams -12.5
Geoff Clark will lay the points with Los Angeles as long as the number doesn’t climb above -13.5. His Cardinals vs. Rams prediction and picks note Arizona has lost four straight, failed to cover three of them, and allows an NFL-worst 32.4 points per game.
Clark has the 2-3 Rams second in his power ratings, and the matchup gets worse for Arizona without running back Jeremiyah Love against the NFL’s third-ranked quarterback pressure rate. Los Angeles is 15-4 against the spread against Arizona in the Sean McVay era.
4:25 p.m. kickoffs
Bills vs. Raiders
Top pick: Bills -4.5
Neil Parker recommends Buffalo up to -5.5. His Bills vs. Raiders prediction and picks detail how Las Vegas has allowed the highest offensive success rate and the third-highest EPA per play, giving up 34 points per game over the past three weeks.
The Bills lead the NFL at 32.8 points per game and rank first in EPA per play. Buffalo stayed on the West Coast after Monday night’s 37-34 overtime win over the Rams to avoid a cross-country turnaround.
Chargers vs. Chiefs
Top pick: Xavier Worthy Over 4.5 receptions
Sam Farley expects Xavier Worthy to see plenty of targets with Rashee Rice out. His Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction and picks note Worthy has had six or more targets in all but one game this season and caught four of seven targets last time out.
Farley is confident in Kansas City, a 7.5-point favorite, but leans Under 41.5 because the Chargers’ offense ranks 32nd in EPA per play.
8:20 p.m. kickoff (Sunday Night Football)
Cowboys vs. Packers
Top pick: Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards
Jason Logan likes Dak Prescott to top 275 passing yards. His Cowboys vs. Packers prediction and picks break down how new Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon runs zone coverage almost exclusively, and Prescott ranks third in passer rating against zone.
Logan also flags a thin Green Bay secondary, with Keisean Nixon and Benjamin St-Juste questionable and strong safety Evan Williams dealing with an illness. He is also on the Over 53.5, and the Cowboys are 1.5-point underdogs.
8:15 p.m. kickoff (Monday Night Football)
Commanders vs. 49ers
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m.
- TV: ESPN
- Analyst: Josh Inglis
Top pick: Brock Purdy 20+ rushing yards
Josh Inglis’ Commanders vs. 49ers picks and predictions spotlight Brock Purdy’s rushing upside on Monday Night Football.
Purdy has topped his rushing total in four of five games this season, while Washington has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, allowing 19.4 rushing yards per game to the position.
With Purdy ranking among the league leaders in scrambles and designed runs, Inglis sees value in the 49ers quarterback rushing for 20+ yards.
More Week 6 NFL picks
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Check the NFL weather report and the NFL injury report, compare numbers across football betting sites and NFL prediction market apps, and brush up with our guide to betting on football before finalizing Sunday’s picks.
All of this week’s matchups are also on the NFL scores and matchups page, and the full pick archive lives in free NFL picks.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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