The results of voting for the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame class will be revealed Tuesday evening. We already know that Jeff Kent was elected by the Era Committee last month, so this reveal is the BBWAA portion. Who will join him?
The prediction here is that only Carlos Beltrán will be voted in, though it’s possible that Andruw Jones also gets over the required 75% threshold. As a reminder, players getting at least 75% of the vote will be inducted into the Hall of Fame and those getting at least 5% of the vote can hang around on the ballot for at least one more year, up to 10 years on the ballot. Players getting less than 5% of the vote or failing to reach 75% in 10 tries fall off the ballot before the next cycle.
To reiterate, my prediction is that Beltrán will make it while Jones will come very close. A-Rod won’t be close and Manny Ramirez will fall off the ballot. I’ll break those down in a second. First, here’s how to tune in:
Date: Tuesday, Jan. 20 | Time: 6 p.m. ET
Live stream: Fubo (try for free), MLB.TV | TV: MLB Network
Beltrán is in his fourth year on the ballot and he got 70.3% of the vote last year. With a relatively weak ballot this time around, it should be smooth sailing. And it looks like it is. Thanks to Ryan Thibodaux and his team tracking public ballots, we know that Beltrán has been named on 89% of the ballots so far. Generally speaking, most players see a dip from the known public ballots once the full results are revealed, but Beltrán lost 10.2 percentage points last year and that’s enough cushion to keep him above the required 75%.
You could argue I’m not being bullish enough on Jones, using the same data. He’s tracking at 83.9% right now and last year lost 6.2 points between the known ballots and the final results. If things head on a similar path, he’d make it (83.9 minus 6.2 is 77.7).
The two biggest names on the ballot are Alex Rodríguez and Manny Ramírez. The PED suspensions they served during their careers are holding them back. A-Rod got 37.1% of the vote last year and is tracking at 42.7% this time. It’s his fifth year on the ballot. As for Manny, this is his 10th and final try and he’s tracking at 39.9%.
Regarding the rest of the ballot, let’s take a quick look:
- Chase Utley appears to have some real momentum. He went from 28.8% to 39.8% in his first two years. This is his third and he’s tracking at 67.9% of the vote (he lost 11.8 points last year on the reveal, but we’re still talking about him likely landing in the mid-50s). There’s a decent chance he’ll make it in the next few years.
- Félix Hernández has great momentum in his second time on the ballot. He debuted with 20.6% last year and he’s tracking at 56.9% right now. He only lost 2.9 points at the reveal last year, too, so this bodes very well for him. Andy Pettitte is also tracking at 56.9%, but he’s now in his eighth year and usually loses a little more when the results are revealed. While we’re here, fellow starting pitcher Mark Buehrle is tracking at 23.4% of the vote and he got only 11.4% last year. Maybe those of us hoping for more starting pitcher love for this generation of pitcher are making progress.
- Cole Hamels, another starting pitcher, looks to be making a decent debut. It’s his first year and he’s tracking at 31.7% of the vote. He’s likely the only first-year player on the ballot who will advance to the 2027 ballot. Ryan Braun has the next-highest vote total at six. No, not six percent. Six votes. No other first-timer has more than two votes.
- Bobby Abreu is on the ballot for the seventh time and hasn’t yet reached 20%, but he’s tracking at 39% and only lost 4 points at the reveal last year, so he might be setting up for a late surge like Larry Walker had. He’s one to watch.
- Dustin Pedroia, David Wright and Jimmy Rollins are a trio of infielders who might be running out the clock in ballot purgatory with Abreu, but maybe there’s some hope? At least a sliver? Pedroia got 11.9% of the vote in his first try last year and is tracking at 26.1% (he only lost 3 points at the reveal last year). Rollins got 18% of the vote in his fourth try last year and is now tracking at 24.8%. Wright got 8.1% of the vote last year in his second try and is tracking at 20.2% this time around.
- Closer Francisco Rodríguez hasn’t gotten more than 10.8% of the vote in his three tries so far. He’s tracking at 11.5%.
- Omar Vizquel is just playing out the clock. He’s in his ninth year and is tracking at 11.5% of the vote. He’s a rare case where the vote percentage usually ends up higher once the results are revealed (he rose 5.6% last year), but there’s really no hope for him.
- Torii Hunter continues his dance with 5%. He stayed on the ballot by less than a handful of votes last year. He’s been named on 5.5% of the ballots known so far and he isn’t out of the woods yet.