Michael B. Jordan’s Win & 2027 Kalshi Guide

Last updated: Tuesday, March 17

The winners of the 98th Academy Awards have now been revealed, following a Best Actor race that continued to heat up until the envelope was opened.

This market had been starting to look like a one-man race, with the price of a ‘yes’ for Timothée Chalamet reaching unprecedented heights by mid-February. But a shock win for non-nominee Robert Aramayo at the BAFTAs left traders scrambling to adjust their positions, and caused an instant drop in Chalamet’s price.

On 1 March, Chalamet’s price plunged even further when Michael B. Jordan triumphed at the Actor Awards for his role in Sinners.

The impact of this snub was even greater than that of the BAFTAs, as the ceremony is seen as one of the most accurate ways of gauging voting intention ahead of the Academy Awards.

Chalamet hung on to the top spot for just a few days, but on March 7 Michael B. Jordan claimed the top spot, and stayed there until he was ultimately announced as the winner of the 2026 Best Actor statue.

Key Takeaways:

• Timothée Chalamet’s early one-man race status was shattered by a BAFTA loss to non-Oscar nominee Robert Aramayo (I Swear) and a direct loss to Michael B. Jordan at the Actor Awards.
• The Actor Awards share a massive voting bloc with the Academy, which is why Michael B. Jordan became the favorite in this volatile market shortly before his win.
• Total volume for the Best Actor market 2026 topped $25 million, with traders looking for value in dark horses as well as the favorites.

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Best Actor Odds 2026: How Things Stood Before the Ceremony

Probabilities and prices provided by Kalshi – accurate as of March 13

Best Actor Prediction Markets: The Results

✅ Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | Chance 56% | ▲ 23

Sinners broke records on January 22 when it was revealed that the film had been nominated in 16 categories. That news led to a jump in Jordan’s ‘Yes’ price, from 3¢ to 8¢.

His price rose again following the nominations announcement, but it wasn’t until he was named Best Actor at the Actor Awards that Michael B. Jordan became a real contender in this market. He was the heavy favorite going in to the awards, as traders turned away from Chalamet. 

❌ Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | Chance 32% | ▼ 20

Chalamet’s price dropped significantly in the months preceeding the Oscars. Once looking like a clean sweep contender, Chalamet missed out at several precursors and his ‘Yes’ price plummeted as a result.

His portrayal of a 1950s ping-pong legend captured the industry narrative early on, with success in early precursors like the Golden Globes putting him ahead of the competition. But those upsets have changed everything.

❌ Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) | Chance 7% | —

Once a favorite in this race, DiCaprio saw his price drop early on. Once that happened, it stagnated in longshot territory. Traders couldn’t see a way for DiCaprio to compete against the likes of Jordan and Chalamet, despite the momentum behind Best Picture winner One Battle After Another.

❌ Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) | Chance 5% | ▲ 1

Moura’s price stood at just 5¢ in the run-up to the Oscars, despite the fact that he won a Golden Globe in the Drama category. Despite recent upsets in this category, traders never saw Wagner Moura as a viable winner.

❌ Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) | Chance 2% | ▼ 1

Hawke’s performance in Blue Moon got the critics talking, but his price remained on the floor throughout the run-up to the Academy Awards. Traders were always doubtful of his ability to win over the likes of Jordan or Chalamet.

Michael B. Jordan’s Actor Awards Win Shakes Up Best Actor Odds on Kalshi

The 2026 Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) took place on March 1, 2026, and the story of the night was Michael B. Jordan pulling off a major upset in the Best Actor category.

Jordan’s win, alongside the film’s Outstanding Ensemble Cast trophy, significantly disrupted the Best Actor race, which, up until this point, had been dominated by Timothée Chalamet for his role in Marty Supreme.

The impact on Kalshi’s Oscars prediction markets was immediate and volatile. Chalamet, who entered the weekend as the frontrunner with an implied probability of approximately 70%, saw his odds drop sharply to around 46% following the ceremony.

As a direct result of the win, Michael B. Jordan’s ‘Yes’ contracts surged from a pre-Actor Awards price of 12¢ to a far more competitive 34¢. Traders were quick to react to the win because of the strength of the correlation between Actor Award and Oscar winners.

Sinners carried immense industry momentum heading into the Academy Awards. Its upset shortly before helped to shift this prediction market from a runaway scenario to one of closest and most volatile categories of the 98th Academy Awards.

Best Actor Prediction Market Movement: The BAFTA Impact

In early February, the Best Actor market appeared to be a settled affair. Following his Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, Timothée Chalamet’s implied probability soared to 78%, translating to a 78¢ ‘Yes’ price on Kalshi. He was the most expensive lead acting contract on the board… until the BAFTAs changed everything.

The victory of Robert Aramayo in London caused a decided shift away from the inevitability of a Chalamet sweep. Because Aramayo won the BAFTA despite not being nominated for an Oscar, he effectively acted as a spoiler for the frontrunner’s momentum.

On Kalshi, Chalamet’s price softened to 72¢, as traders reacted to the news that the British voting bloc (a major Oscar crossover group) preferred a non-nominee over the American favorite.

Conversely, Leonardo DiCaprio continued to see a disconnect between his film’s success and his individual odds.

While One Battle After Another remained the Best Picture heavyweight until the end, Leo’s price stagnated at 10¢. It showed that traders were betting on the split theory: that the Academy will reward Paul Thomas Anderson’s direction and the film itself, while looking elsewhere for the acting honors. And that’s exactly what happened on the night.

What changed after the Golden Globes?

The BAFTAs and Actor Awards aren’t the only precursor events that have a significant impact on Oscars markets, of course.

In early December, the Best Actor market was split between Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another) but it was the Golden Globes that caused a decided shift towards Chalamet.

Following his Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins, Chalamet’s implied probability soared to 75%. On Kalshi, this translates to a 75¢ ‘Yes’ price, making him by far the most expensive lead acting contract currently on the board.

Conversely, Leonardo DiCaprio saw his price drop from a 30¢ high down to 17¢. While One Battle After Another remained a Best Picture favorite for the duration, traders continued to assume that the Academy was more likely to split the awards, rewarding the film itself rather than Leo’s individual performance.

Best Supporting Actor 2026: Prediction Market Prices Before the Oscars 

Probabilities and prices provided by Kalshi – accurate as of March 13

In the Best Supporting Actor category, the market had priced Stellan Skarsgård as the one to beat, but shortly before the ceremony prices reacted to precursor events and Sean Penn became the heavy favorite. Once again, traders showed that they were ahead of the curve, as it was Penn who took the prize.

✅ Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) | Yes: 73¢ ▲ 2

This year’s high-octane villain was the type of character that’s been known to catch the Academy’s eye. Reviewers called him “absolutely terrifying” in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another.

Once priced at 19¢, Penn had been great value for those who saw his potential early on. His price later soared in response to precursor events, as traders realised he was the Academy’s choice. 

❌ Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) | Chance 16¢ ▼ 3

Stellan Skarsgård was the definitive frontrunner after his Golden Globe win, priced as a safe bet until the Actor Awards changed everything. Shortly before the Academy Awards, Skarsgård’s price fell behind that of Sean Penn.

❌ Delroy Lindo (Sinners) | Chance 11¢ ▲ 4

Sinners had been expected to sweep this year’s Academy Awards, given the fact that it got a record-breaking 16 nominations. This led some to argue that Lindo had more potential than his price suggested, but ultimately he wasn’t a winner.

❌ Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) | Chance 2% ▼ 1

Elordi won the Critics’ Choice Award for his role as the Creature in Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein, however traders didn’t believe he had what it takes to scoop the Best Supporting Actor trophy this year.

❌ Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) | Chance 1% ▼ 1

Del Toro’s performance may have been worthy of an award, but he faced the vote-splitting issue with co-star Sean Penn. Critics universally praised Del Toro’s acting, but momentum was firmly behind Penn in this market.

How Best Actor Oscars Prediction Markets Work

Prediction markets like Kalshi operate more like a stock exchange than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of betting against the house, you’re trading event contracts with others.

Kalshi contracts are all priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The most important thing to remember is that the price equals the probability. So, if a contract for Timothée Chalamet to win Best Actor is trading at 75¢, the market believes there is a 75% chance he will win.

If your prediction is correct, the contract settles at $1.00, netting you a profit (in this case, 25¢ per share). If you’re wrong, it goes to $0.00. Because these markets are federally regulated by the CFTC, they are often considered more accurate than polls or expert pundits.

Traders have a financial incentive to be right, which is why prices shift so quickly in response to breaking news, rumors or any wins (or lack of) at precursor events.

To learn more about the impact of precursor events and how to spot the best value picks, take a look at our complete guide to Oscars prediction markets.

Best Actor Prediction Market FAQs

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