Danny Howard
• Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 11, 2026 , 10:12 PM ET
• 4 min read
Benoit Saint Denis enters the Octagon as the betting favorite, highly motivated to bounce back in a big way in this lightweight matchup at UFC 329.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Benoit Saint Denis (blue gloves) celebrates in the lightweight bout during UFC 322 at Madison Square Garden.
Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett serves as the co-main event at UFC 329, taking place tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Saint Denis enters as a slight betting favorite in the UFC odds over the returning Pimblett, who looks to rebound from the first UFC loss of his career in our Pimblett vs. Saint Denis predictions.
Check out our free betting picks for this lightweight clash on Saturday, July 11.
Who will win Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis: Saint Denis (-145)
Pimblett is coming off a brutal loss to Justin Gaethje and is going up against a potentially sharper striker with excellent ground defense who pushes at an impeccable pace.
Saint Denis’ physicality and accuracy, coupled with Pimblett’s willingness to trade, should pull the fight in his favor.
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Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis best bet: Benoit Saint Denis To Win by Decision (+475)
Saint Denis by decision is my best bet. Pimblett is tough enough that he can hold his own and stay upright in a three-round fight, but this is not a good fight for him after the Gaethje war.
Saint Denis’ weapons are too voluminous for Pimblett’s grit to overcome but will stop short of breaking him. I’m taking Saint Denis by decision.
COVERS INTEL: Saint Denis owns the highest significant strike accuracy in UFC lightweight history at 61.5% and has 11 submission victories, suggesting that he has tools to match Pimblett both on the feet and on the ground.Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Paddy Pimblett | Benoit Saint Denis |
| To win outright | -160 | +120 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +450 | +295 |
| To win by decision | +475 | +450 |
| To win by submission | +600 | +295 |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 +135 |
Under 2.5 -175 |
Odds as of 7-10.
Saint Denis has been a steady favorite since the fight was announced, with the moneyline continuing to climb as bettors back his relentless pace and Pimblett attempts to rebound from a tough loss. I prefer Saint Denis by decision.
Pimblett proved against Justin Gaethje that he has the durability to survive sustained punishment, and the three-round format further improves his chances of hearing the final horn.
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Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis tale of the tape
| Paddy Pimblett | Benoit Saint Denis | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 73 inches | Reach | 73 inches |
| 23-4 | Record | 17-3 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 6 |
| 10 | Wins by submission | 11 |
Pimblett is coming off the first loss of his UFC career in a thrilling loss to future lightweight champion Justin Gaethje, whereas Saint Denis is on a four-fight win streak.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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