Friday afternoons are my opportunity to connect with FantasyPros readers and the FantasyPros Discord community. If you haven’t already done so, be sure to join our Discord to get answers to your questions. This week, I jumped on to answer questions in the morning. Nevertheless, I host weekly AMAs on Fridays, and other analysts also routinely answer questions. Below were three standout topics from Friday’s busy Week 7 AMA.
Discord AMA: Week 7
What is Rico Dowdle‘s Outlook This Week?
Unfortunately, I don’t have a crystal ball. As a result, I don’t know precisely how Dave Canales will divvy up playing time and opportunities between the white-hot Rico Dowdle and the likely returning Chuba Hubbard. Dowdle would be a no-doubt starter in all league sizes and scoring formats if Hubbard were surprisingly inactive.
Still, the Panthers can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube with Dowdle. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 43 running backs with at least 10 rush attempts since Week 5, Dowdle was first in rushing yards per game (194.5), third in yards per carry (7.34), 10th in explosive run rate (9.4%), third in stuff rate (35.8%), 12th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21) and third in expected half-PPR points per game (23.8).
According to RotoViz’s pace app, the Panthers had a 54% situation-neutral rush rate in Dowdle’s two starts. Meanwhile, Gang Green’s run defense hasn’t provided much resistance lately. Since Week 4, the Jets have permitted 127 rushing yards per game, 4.43 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns.
Thus, the slightly favored Panthers should have ample opportunities to run the ball. Since this would be Hubbard’s first game back from a two-week absence and Dowdle was a world-beater without him, I suspect the Panthers will use Dowdle more. What exactly will the backfield split be? I’m unsure.
I’d guess something ranging from 60/40 to 75/25 in Dowdle’s favor. Carolina could opt to use them by series, and something like two series for Dowdle to one for Hubbard would make logical sense. Therefore, I have Dowdle in the middle-tier to low-end RB2 mix, which makes him a starter for most gamers in 12-team leagues.
How Should Gamers Handle Omarion Hampton?
Omarion Hampton briefly looked like he could be a league-winning player. From Week 3 through Week 5, Hampton handled 43 of Los Angeles’s backfield’s 53 rush attempts, and he had a 58.4% route participation rate versus 9.5% for Hassan Haskins, 8.3% for Kimani Vidal and 5.7% for Najee Harris. Hampton parlayed his bell-cow role into 242 rushing yards (80.7 per game), 5.63 yards per carry, two rushing touchdowns, 17 targets, 17 receptions (5.7 per game) and 122 receiving yards (40.7 per game).
I understand why gamers are keeping a light on for Hampton. Yet, expectations should be recalibrated. Hampton is expected to miss more than the minimum four games on the injured reserve (IR), and the Chargers were reportedly exploring the trade market for a running back. Vidal played well last week, so the Chargers might feel less inclined to trade for a running back.
Nevertheless, their exploration of trade options could be viewed as a red flag for Hampton’s timeline. Moreover, given the severity of Hampton’s ankle injury, he might be ineffective when he returns. As a result, I would attempt to trade Hampton to an ambitious manager with rose-colored glasses on for Hampton’s rest-of-season outlook. Otherwise, gamers can hold him and hope for the best. Hampton isn’t a buy, though.
Should Gamers Panic About the Weather in Cleveland?
The weather forecast in Cleveland is downright terrifying. According to RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth, the forecast includes 20-25 miles per hour (MPH) sustained wind, gusts over 40 MPH and rain. The weather would be a nightmare for the passing attacks for the Dolphins and Browns, drastically reducing the appeal of using Jaylen Waddle, Darren Waller, Jerry Jeudy and Harold Fannin Jr.
It’s also not optimal for De’Von Achane. Sure, more rush attempts would be sweet for Achane. Yet, his matchup as a runner is brutal. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Browns have yielded the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game (66.8) at 3.2 yards per carry to running backs. Achane’s cleanest path to fantasy value would be through the air, but an ineffective passing attack in windy and rainy weather could undercut his receiving production.
The most appealing options from this game are Quinshon Judkins and the Browns’ D/ST. The Dolphins can’t stop the run, and a weather-impacted game should prompt Cleveland to force-feed Judkins. He is a high-end RB2 to low-end RB1 this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.