Geoff Clark
• Betting Analyst
22+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 16, 2026 , 04:25 PM ET
• 4 min read
Memphis lays nearly a touchdown on the road, but Tulane’s matchup advantages make the Green Wave appealing as a home underdog, while a fast tempo keeps the Over squarely in play, per our college football expert.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Don’t miss our Memphis vs. Tulane predictions for tonight!
My top Memphis vs. Tulane prediction is that we’ll see points aplenty at Yulman Stadium tonight.
I also have the Green Wave, who have won three of the last four meetings outright — including last year’s 38-32 shootout — keeping this one close at home.
Check out our college football picks for Week 7 action on Friday, Oct. 16, and don’t miss kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Who will win Memphis vs Tulane: Tulane +6.5
I’ll take the Tulane Green Wave +6.5, down to +5.5, over the Memphis Tigers because this is a big number to lay on the road in conference play, and Memphis hasn’t done enough to justify it.
Tulane is 2-1 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season, with both covers coming against top-75 teams in ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+ Ratings. Memphis is just 1-1 ATS against Top-75 opponents.
The Green Wave also have a couple of offensive advantages that could help them cover. Memphis ranks 118th in yards per rush allowed and in the 16th percentile nationally in stuff rate, per GameOnPaper.com, so Tulane should stay ahead of schedule and face manageable third downs.
Memphis also ranks in just the 36th percentile in explosive-play rate allowed, while the Green Wave’s offense sits in the 85th percentile.
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TOP PICK
Memphis vs Tulane Over/Under pick: Over 55.5
The Over 55.5, playable up to 56.5, is my favorite bet in this game. Both teams play at a quick pace, and my Tulane +6.5 pick is driven largely by concerns about Memphis’ defense. Tulane ranks 25th nationally in seconds per play, while Memphis ranks 35th.
I’ve already mentioned the Green Wave’s explosive offense, but Tulane also allows more big plays than Memphis. The Tigers rank in the 75th percentile nationally in offensive explosive-play rate, according to GameOnPaper.com.
Furthermore, Memphis QB Marcus Stokes gets a favorable matchup against a Tulane defense that ranks 121st nationally in sacks per game and 97th in opponent passer rating.
COVERS INTEL: The Tigers have a strength-on-weakness edge through the air: Memphis ranks 12th nationally in EPA per pass, while Tulane’s defense ranks 109th in EPA allowed per pass, per GameOnPaper.com.Memphis vs Tulane prop: Under 27.5 first half
My first-half Under 27.5 is playable down to 26.5, but I prefer it as part of the three-leg combo below rather than as a standalone play. Including the Under yields a 14.43x payout, compared with 4.95x if I use the first-half Over. The bigger payout also comes with more risk.
There is some football logic behind it. Both teams score more points per game in the second half, and Memphis owns the nation’s best red-zone touchdown rate allowed. If Tulane’s scripted opening drives use clock but end in field goals, that would help keep the first half Under.
Memphis vs Tulane combo
This combo works if the game starts a little tighter than the full-game total suggests, then opens up after halftime. Tulane needs to stay within striking distance early, so Memphis has less reason to turn the second half into a clock-killing exercise.
From there, both offenses can trade explosive plays. That gives the first-half Under a path to cash without fighting the full-game Over, while Tulane staying competitive supports both the spread and a higher-scoring finish.
Memphis vs Tulane combo
- Green Wave +6.5
- Over 55.5
- Under 27.5 first half
Memphis vs Tulane market trends
Here’s how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Memphis vs. Tulane prediction.
Memphis vs Tulane odds tonight
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Memphis -6.5 | Tulane +6.5
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (52%) | Under 55.5 (53%)
- Moneyline: Memphis 72% | Tulane 31%
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Memphis vs Tulane weather
Temperatures are expected to be in the low 80s in New Orleans on Friday, with winds around 6.5 mph and a 7% chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Memphis vs Tulane trend to know
The Over has cashed in four of the teams’ last five meetings, dating back to 2021. Find more college football betting trends for Memphis vs Tulane.
How to watch Memphis vs Tulane tonight
| Location | Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, La. |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 16, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Memphis vs Tulane latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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