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MLB Trade Impact: Josh Naylor Traded to the Mariners
The Mariners have the arms to make a run this season, which is why we had value on the Mariners as longshots to win both the AL and World Series, but their lack of bats have been holding them back the last few seasons. The model loves Josh Naylor’s ability to hit for average (.292 overall) especially against right-handed pitching (.310 with a .888 OPS). The impact of landing Naylor is seen more on Seattle’s chances to make the playoffs than their chances to win the ALCS or World Series, both of which didn’t change much. If Julio Rodriguez can get hot throughout the rest of the season, the AL is open enough that the Mariners are worth a shot at +1100 to win the AL.
| SEATTLE MARINERS | WIN | WIN% | AL WEST | PLAYOFF | ALCS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| w/o Naylor | 88.9 | 54.9% | 32.8% | 79.4% | 17.3% | 8.6% |
| w/ Naylor | 89.2 | 55.1% | 35.5% | 81.7% | 17.4% | 8.6% |
| Diff | 0.3 | 0.2% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
The best price for Seattle to win the division that our books are offering is at Caesars +375 which implies a little over 21%. Our nearly 36% chance with Naylor in the lineup makes this a pretty strong +$$$ betting value. Their odds of making the playoffs are between -240 (DraftKings) and -250 (Caesars, FanDuel). These imply over 70% and we also have value with our nearly 82% forecast.
While the Naylor addition did not measurably improve Seattle’s World Series chances in our simulations they are still at nearly 9% which is more than double what their best priced +2400, 4% line that Fanatics is offering. FanDuel and Caesars are both offering +2100, 4.54%.