In a previous article, I analyzed how to approach rookie WRs in redraft leagues. My approach was simple: gather historical data on rookie average draft positions (ADP) and compare it to how they finished the season amongst all WRs. In this article, I will apply this learned logic to this year’s rookie WR draft class.
Let’s jump right in.
Before we begin our analysis of the WR draft class, let’s have a refresher on my prior article and what we learned about drafting rookie pass catchers. We saw that between 2019 and 2023, 28 of the 48 rookie receivers (58.3%) with ADP lower than 75 amongst all wideouts finished higher in total points scored than where they were drafted. This can be seen in the plot below, which shows ADP vs. final WR rank in total points for. It is important to note the positive correlation between these variables; ADP is (sensibly) a fairly decent predictor of how well a receiver will perform. We don’t have many major flops, such as Quentin Johnston and Treylon Burks; highly touted WRs typically play out accordingly. We do see a lot of over-performers amongst lower-preseason-rated wideouts as well, such as Puka Nacua.
Moving on, we performed a retrospective analysis, which shows the number of wideouts from each ADP range that performed better, worse, or equal to expectations in their rookie season. While we saw the number of major flops, where a wide out underperformed by a large margin in the previous graphic, we do see it is slightly risky when approaching rookies in the top 40 in ADP, for them to underperform. We see that there is massive upside, however, with later round rookie WRs, with high percentages of them outperforming their expected output.
For redraft leagues, late-round rookie WRs may be strong targets for upside.
Now, let’s take a look at this season’s rookie WR class to analyze where they fit in our redraft draft boards.
We will analyze the following players:
- Tetairoa McMillan, CAR: ADP 27.0
- Travis Hunter, JAC: ADP 32.0
- Matthew Golden, GB: ADP 46.7
- Jayden Higgins, HOU: ADP 50.0
- Emeka Egbuka, TB: ADP 53.7
- Tre’ Harris, LAC: ADP 55.7
- Luther Burden III, CHI: ADP 58.0
- Jack Bech, LV: ADP 58.5
- Kyle Williams, NE: ADP 64.0
- Jaylin Noel, HOU: ADP 77.0
- Pat Bryant, DEN: ADP 78.0
- Jalen Royals, KC: ADP 82.5
- Dont’e Thornton Jr., LV: ADP 86.5
- Xavier Restrepo, TEN: ADP 89.0
- Elic Ayomanor, TEN: ADP 90.0
- Isaac TeSlaa, DET: ADP 92.5
- Tory Horton, SEA: ADP 98.0
Automatically, two names stand out: Tetairoa McMillan and Travis Hunter, both inside the top 40 for overall ADP amongst WRs. We see from the first graphic that no rookie WR drafted so high has underperformed by a large margin, making these two safe options on draft day.
Extending down to the next tier, consisting of Matthew Golden, Jayden Higgins, Emeka Egbuka, Tre’ Harris, Luther Burden, and Jack Bech, these players might be a bit more risky. While a large number of them perform as well, or better than expected, historically, the busts have been big ones.
Proceed with caution with these players.
The rest of this class can be viewed as high-upside picks. If you have the chance in later rounds, these receivers could be solid options; they may boom, and if they bust, well, you expected them to! One sleeper option who will be available late in redraft leagues is Xavier Restrepo, who played with Cam Ward in Miami. He was recently acquired as an undrafted free agent and will have a chance to fight his way into the Tennessee lineup this pre-season.