Neil Parker
• Betting Analyst
16+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 11, 2026 , 06:56 PM ET
• 3 min read
Parker’s prediction: Jakub Dobes stacks up saves with Sabres trailing in series.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Montreal Canadiens goalie during Round 2 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs at KeyBank Center.
The Montreal Canadiens will look to make it three straight wins to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Buffalo Sabres with the two teams hitting the ice at the Bell Centre on Tuesday, May 12.
My top Sabres vs. Canadiens predictions and NHL picks are calling for a huge push from Buffalo to be answered by Montreal goaltender Jakub Dobes continuing to stand tall in Game 4.
Sabres vs Canadiens Game 4 prediction
Sabres vs Canadiens best bet: Jakub Dobes Over 25.5 saves (-110)
The Montreal Canadiens have received elite goaltending from Jakub Dobes with a .947 save percentage and 3.94 goals saved above expected the past two games, and he sports a .918 SV% with 0.591 GSAx per 60 minutes for the postseason.
While the Buffalo Sabres have won the possession battle with a 51.7 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five for the series, they’ve only converted 43.5% of their overall attempts in shots.
Buffalo converted at a 49.2% rate during the regular season and 46.6% mark in Round 1. So with an added emphasis on funneling pucks to the net, in addition to a slight statistical correction in converting attempts into shots, Dobes is set to be busy again in Game 4.
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Sabres vs Canadiens Game 4 same-game parlay
Canadiens rookie Ivan Demidov collected an assist in Games 1 and 3, and he’s been on the ice for five goals and 4.37 expected goals through three games. He’s a key puck distributor on the No. 1 power-play unit and has averaged 5:04 per night with the man advantage this postseason.
Additionally, while Demidov has been held to just three shots during Round 2, he’s registered 14 attempts (21.4%). I’m anticipating him converting attempts to shots at a higher rate in Game 4 after hitting the net 17 times on 43 attempts in Round 1 (39.5%) and at a 45.0% rate during the regular season.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Lane Hutson has recorded two or more shots in six of 10 postseason games while quarterbacking the No. 1 power-play unit and pacing the Habs in offensive zone starts at 5-on-5.
Sabres vs Canadiens SGP
- Ivan Demidov Over 0.5 assists
- Ivan Demidov Over 1.5 shots
- Lane Hutson Over 1.5 shots
Sabres vs Canadiens odds for Game 4
- Moneyline: Sabres +110 | Canadiens -130
- Puck Line: Sabres +1.5 (-220) | Canadiens -1.5 (+180)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+120) | Under 6.5 (-135)
Sabres vs Canadiens trend
The Montreal Canadiens have won 17 of their last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Sabres vs. Canadiens.
How to watch Sabres vs Canadiens Game 4
| Location | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date | Tuesday, May 12, 2026 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBC, ESPN |
Sabres vs Canadiens latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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